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Nearly 70% of Money Bet on Next POTUS Is on Donald Trump Being Re-Elected, 64% of Money Also on Him Being Impeached

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics

Oct 16, 2019 · 10:52 AM PDT

Donald Trump looking smug
70 percent of all the money they've handled on who will be win the next POTUS is wagered on Donald Trump. 64 percent of all bets it's handled are wagering on Trump being impeached. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr)
  • Nearly 70% of money bet on the next POTUS has been wagered on Donald Trump
  • 64% of the handle on impeachment has been bet on the “Yes” side
  • 52% of the handle and 62% of wagers on the winning party in 2020 are on the Republicans

In his nearly three years as POTUS, if there’s one quality that Donald Trump has mastered, it’s dividing a nation.

The numbers from a couple of the leading sportsbooks offer ample proof that Donald The Divider hasn’t lost his touch.

70 percent of the wagers one sportsbook has handled on the 2020 US Presidential election are bet on Trump earning re-election.

Odds Congress Impeaches Trump

Outcome Odds Percentage Of Handle
Yes +200 58%
No -300 42%
Outcome Odds Percentage Of Handle
Yes +175 64%
No -250 36%

*All odds taken on 10/15/19. 

Sportsbooks are handling more money that Trump will be impeached, and that’s not surprising. This bet does not cover Trump being convicted by the Senate. It only requires Congress to pass articles of impeachment against the POTUS on or before March 1st, 2020, to be a winning wager.

That’s going to happen. And it may happen very quickly. The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives will be the entity voting on whether to pass articles of impeachment.

With each passing day, it seems that more layers are peeled back revealing further scandalous and corrupt behavior from the Trump Administration.

The main crux of the impeachment inquiry into Trump is a July 25 phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in which Trump pressed Zelensky to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden, a leading contender to gain the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, and his businessman son, Hunter.

Democrats allege that Trump threatened to withhold US military aid to Ukraine if Zelensky didn’t help them dig up dirt on Hunter Biden, who’d worked for a Ukrainian-based oil company.

How Soon Could POTUS Be Impeached?

Some pundits think the articles of impeachment could be passed as soon as Thanksgiving. That seems an optimistic estimate.

Time magazine utilized the averages from the previous impeachment inquiries against Richard Nixon in 1974 and Bill Clinton in 1998 to come up with, pardon the pun, a timeline.

Taking into account both the investigation and then the stalling tactics from the Republicans in an effort to delay the inevitable, Time predicts it will be 126 days until a vote is taken.

That would put the vote in the House happening sometime in late January of 2020.

Pick: Yes (+200)

Odds Trump Runs for Re-Election in 2020

Outcome Odds Percentage Of Handle
Yes -700 29%
No +450 71%

At this point, the heavy emphasis in wagering toward “Yes” makes sense. While there’s been a few cracks showing in the wall of support that backs Trump within the Republican-controlled Senate, it’s not to a point where he should be fearful that the Senate would vote to convict him in the impeachment proceedings.

However, it should be noted that the same thing was true in the early stages of Nixon’s Impeachment inquiry. As the layers of the cover-up by Nixon and his administration were revealed, Republicans eventually changed their tune. Maybe it was to save the country. Perhaps it was to save their own careers.

Might that happen again? That’s a difficult call make at this stage of the process. And as a man apparently without shame, there’s no way Trump will make like Nixon and resign the Presidency to avoid his fate.
Pick: Yes (-700)

Odds on Next President of United States

Candidate Odds Percentage Of Handle Opening Odds Best Odds Worst Odds
Donald Trump +109 69.5% +200 -110 +240
Elizabeth Warren +195 6.2% +2000 +195 +4500
Joe Biden +747 14.3% +850 +392 +1125
Bernie Sanders +2400 2.1% +1100 +686 +2400
Hillary Clinton +2500 1.3% +20000 +2500 +20000
Kamala Harris +4200 1.9% +850 +425 +4200

So far, Teflon Don has survived every scandal and misstep to plague his tenure in the Oval Office. It’s no wonder that the betting public – and Wall Street for that matter – appear to be convinced that he’ll skate past this latest mess he’s embroiled in without a dent.

Perhaps no POTUS in history has created such a polarizing presence as Trump. Well, okay, maybe you could argue that the southern states didn’t like Abraham Lincoln all that much.

Americans Weary of Trump?

There’s a strong, developing theory that a growing majority of Americans are growing weary of the ongoing three-ring circus being staged in the Oval Office, and that this will lead to regime change in 2020.

Trump’s latest faux pas – leaving the Kurds exposed to slaughter by the Turks in Syria – has angered some among what seemed to be his impenetrable base of support. Why, even Fox News, the harbinger of all things Republican, is suddenly questioning Trump’s actions.

The tide could be slowly turning against the Trump Administration, just as it did to the Nixon White House in 1974. And if that’s the case, the 2020 election will be up for grabs.

The majority of Americans, tired of all the chaos, corruption and division within the country, will be looking for change. They’ll seek a more reasonable Presidential candidate who builds a foundation around bringing the country back together, not segregating into combative factions.

That candidate could be Elizabeth Warren. Warren doesn’t lose her cool. Her closet looks to be bereft of skeletons. Some will certainly feel she’s too close to socialism for their liking but Warren also comes across as someone who knows how to find compromise.

Pick: Elizabeth Warren (+195).

Odds on Winning Party 2020 Election

Party Odds Percentage Of Handle Opening Odds Best Odds
Democrat -130 47.86% -165 -200
Republican +106 52.0% +160 +120
Other +20000 0.14% +20000 +20000

Of all money wagered on the party of the 2020 Presidential election winner, 52 percent is on the next POTUS being a Republican.  47.86 percent of all action is on the next President being a Democrat. A paltry 0.14 percent think a third-party candidate could be the winner.

In terms of the wager count, though, 62 percent of bets are on the Republicans. That compares to 26 percent on Democrats and only 12 percent on a third-party option.

These totals would indicate that while the larger volume of bets are being put down on it being a Republican President, the big cash action is on the Democrats.

An element that could prove to be a compelling factor in the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election is the intransigent opinion people hold of the current POTUS. Trump is the only President since polling began who’s never polled 50 percent in approval rating.

As the gamblers like to say, that’s a pretty big tell. Trump’s supporters are fervent and thus far, unwavering. But are there enough of them to earn him a second mandate?

Trump lost the popular vote in 2016 by more than three million to Hillary Clinton. Voters who stayed home or voted for a third party due to their distaste for the Clintons are living a daily nightmare as a reminder of the error of their ways.

They won’t make the same mistake twice.

Pick: Democrat (-130)

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