Bernie Sanders Now a -900 Favorite to Win Nevada Caucuses; Biden a Distant Second at +1600 Odds

• Bernie Sanders is the current favorite to win the Nevada Caucuses this Saturday (Feb. 22)
• Sanders receives excellent support from Hispanics, who donated more money to his campaign than any other candidate in 2019
• Is Sanders a good bet to win Nevada or will we see a surprise on Saturday?

For the second time this primary season, we’re going to have caucuses. Hopefully, for the first time, they’ll be able to properly count the votes. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is a huge favorite to win Nevada tomorrow (Saturday, Feb. 22). Is there any value betting on him at such a short price?

As you can see, the worst odds for Sanders are -900. He’s as short as -2500.

2020 Democratic Presidential Nevada Caucus Odds

Odds taken Feb. 21.

Polls Show Sanders Heavily Favored

Although it’s still very uncertain as to who will cash in for the Democratic Nomination odds and go up against President Donald Trump, there appears to be little debate as to who is going to win Nevada. For a long period of time, the expectation has been that Sanders will win this state.

The latest polls all show that Sanders has a huge lead in the state with most polls putting him ahead by double-digits. The latest KLAS-TV/Emerson poll from Thursday showed that he is +13. The poll before that showed a +19 lead. After a good debate showing midweek, it’s hard to imagine anything would change.

Sanders Popular Among Latinos

A big issue for the other candidates is that Nevada has a sizable Hispanic population with about a quarter of the state being Latinos. Outside of Sanders, many of the Democratic candidates are struggling for the minority vote, which puts them in a tough spot.

One poll showed that Sanders has up to 60% of the Latino vote. From the other candidates, we know that former Vice President Joe Biden and billionaire Tom Steyer have some traction with African Americans, but that’s about it. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Senators Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar have struggled with minorities.

Unless the performance at Wednesday’s debate drastically changes anything, everyone but Sanders is going to struggle in Nevada.

Sanders Is The Best Bet

Sanders is surging nationally and in Nevada, which are both great signs for him to win this Saturday. RealClearPolitics showed him getting an average of 17.5% of the Nevada vote in late January/early February but he’s now rocketed up to 30%. We can see that in the odds too as Sanders was at -330 to win Nevada on Valentine’s Day.

As a reminder, with this being a caucus, each candidate will have to make the 15% threshold just to acquire any delegates and the only sure-fire bet to do this right now is Sanders. Biden is still above 15%, according to recent polls, but he’s been dropping like a rock. No other candidate is currently at 15%.

Taking a look at the odds, some books have Sanders at about -2500, which is probably far more accurate than -900. Is it possible that polls are way off? Maybe. Of course, anything can happen. At the same time, the polls, the tracking and the data and strongly point an easy win for Sanders. At -900, that’s a gift.