Biden Given Better Than 70% Chance to Win Election After Mail-In Ballots Swing Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin

• Early returns for overnight results show that Donald Trump’s claim of a win on Tuesday was premature
• Overnight counting of mail-in ballots in Wisconsin led to Biden surging into the lead in that state
• He also leads in Nevada and Michigan, and is closing the gap in Pennsylvania

Incumbent Donald Trump declared a win in the US Presidential election in the wee hours of Wednesday morning. As dawn broke, though, Joe Biden was suddenly surging ahead in both the voting and the betting odds.

At 4:30 am on Wednesday, oddsmakers were offering Biden just a 29.2% chance of winning the Presidency. Overnight counting of mail-in ballots in several states led a significant changing of that prognosis. The live election odds give Biden a 76.5% chance of winning the election. Trump’s probability of earning a victory faded to 23.5%.

The odds on who will win Michigan and Wisconsin have also swung massively in Biden’s favor.

Odds To Win Key Swing States in 2020 US Presidential Election

Odds as of Nov. 4th.

Votes are still being counted in Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Biden Headed For Wisconsin Win

As mail-in ballots were counted overnight, Biden pulled slightly ahead of Trump in the race for the Badger State. More than 1.9 million Wisconsinites voted by mail and those ballots were the last to be counted.

Nearly all have now been counted. Biden’s current lead is by a scant 0.6 points, a margin of just over 20,000 out of 3.2 million votes tallied.

Biden just took the lead in Wisconsin. If he wins the state, Trump would need to win all four states he’s currently leading in: Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia to win the election.

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) November 4, 2020

With nearly all votes counted, Biden had a lead of sixth-tenths of a percentage point over Trump, a margin narrow enough to allow Trump to request a recount if it stands.

Michigan a Virtual Tie

Counting also continued in Michigan throughout the night. As of 7:50 am Wednesday morning, the race in the state was in a virtual tie.

Biden pulled into the lead circa 9:00 am ET.

Update: In Michigan, as throughout the nation, every vote will count and we will #CountEveryVote.

— Jocelyn Benson (@JocelynBenson) November 4, 2020

Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson tweeted early Wednesday morning that hundreds of thousands of ballots in the state’s largest jurisdictions, including Detroit, Grand Rapids, Flint, Warren and Sterling Heights, are still being counted.

Georgia Too Close to Call

Even though over 90% of the ballots have been counted, Georgia still can’t be called for either candidate. Trump currently leads by a margin of 118,000 votes.

Georgia – per NYT, Atlanta will not be finished counting tonight. Election workers in Fulton County went home. And if you can believe it, a water line break delayed the count.

Areas that remain in GA for counting are heavily blue.

— Amy Siskind (@Amy_Siskind) November 4, 2020

However, vote counting has yet to be completed heavily-populated Georgia counties such as Fulton, DeKalb and Gwinnett. All of them traditionally tend to skew toward the Democrats.

Based on that data, a play on Biden at +115 offers serious value. A Democrat hasn’t won the Peach State since Bill Clinton in 1992.

Nevada Will Make People Wait

Election officials in Nevada announced that a final tally of all ballots wouldn’t be revealed until Thursday at 9:00 am. Biden currently leads Trump 49.3% (588,252 votes) to 48.7 (580,605) with 86% of all ballots tabulated.

Hi, if you are up and scared for Biden's lead in Nevada, what's outstanding is mail-in votes from Clark county, home of Vegas. That should be heavily Dem.

— 🎃 Josh Scaryar 👻 (@JShahryar) November 4, 2020

Republicans haven’t won Nevada since George W Bush in 2004.

Pennsylvania Moving Toward Biden

On the surface, things look good for Trump in the Keystone State. He’s currently up on Biden by more than 10 points. Trump has garnered 54.8% (3,015,227) of the vote. Biden is at 44.5% (2,427,686).

However, if the pattern in the breakdown of mail-in ballots counted thus far were to continue, projections are that Biden will overtake Trump and win the state.

One thing to note about Pennsylvania: mail votes were *very* blue there.

So although Trump’s lead is larger in Pennsylvania than in Wisconsin or Michigan, Biden should also get a stronger blue shift there. https://t.co/MOdunqSfyP

— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) November 4, 2020

There’s a total of 1.4 million mail-in ballots that election officials are counting. Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar is reporting that the votes already counted are going 78% in favor of Biden.

Those numbers reflect the pre-election polls that was showing Democrats holding that level of margin via mail-in balloting.

North Carolina Looks Like a Trump Win

The Democrats are making North Carolina a tighter race than in most elections but it doesn’t appear that there’s going to be enough momentum for them to carry the state.

Currently, with 95% of all votes counted, Trump leads with 50.1% (2,732,120 votes). Biden is at 48.7% (2,655,383).

AP Decision Desk on North Carolina cont:

“As long as those ballots are postmarked by Nov. 3, state election officials have until Nov. 12 to count them. And when it comes to mail ballots, Biden was far outperforming Trump. /2

— Emma Kinery (@EmmaKinery) November 4, 2020

Approximately 117,000 outstanding absentee by-mail ballots require counting The state allows counting to continue until Nov. 12th as long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3rd.

Republicans have carried the Tar Heel State in nine of the last 10 elections.

Trump Win Call Premature

Many Republicans were among those roundly criticizing Trump for his stunt of claiming a win early Wednesday. It was premature then and it looks like he’ll be wearing egg on his face when all the votes are counted.

This is looking like the most likely scenario now…

PA, GA, NC, ME-02 are incredibly close and we likely won't know the final result for a few days, but even if Trump wins all of those, he still loses providing Biden wins NV, WI & MI. pic.twitter.com/Y4Oen1pks8

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) November 4, 2020

The current path to victory overwhelmingly favors Biden. He’s up 238-212 in Electoral College votes. If he carries Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16) and Nevada (6), Biden has his necessary 270 to win the White House.