Bottoms Clear Favorite in Georgia Governor Odds: Trade Midterm Race on Kalshi

• Georgia’s gubernatorial race between Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms and Republican Rick Jackson is considered a dead heat by most polls
• Jackson held a slight edge in prediction market odds into October, but Lance Bottoms saw a big boost with her odds climbing over 60% this week
• Reports of early voter turnover eclipsing 1 million seem to have impacted the market’s outlook on the race, in favor of the Democratic candidate

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This week has seen a lot of activity and market shifting in the Georgia Governor odds at Kalshi.

With Republican Gov. Brian Kemp unable to run for reelection due to term limits, the race is down to Republican nominee Rick Jackson and Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms.

The race between these two has been very back-and-forth since each earned their respective party’s nomination in May. Jackson, a business executive, had the backing of Kemp on the campaign trail once he won the nomination, while Lance Bottoms is the former Mayor of Atlanta and worked for the Biden administration.

Georgia has certainly been a key battleground state in previous elections, and the subject of a lot of media coverage over the years. With high early-voter turnout in Georgia, prediction market traders see that as a sign of a Lance Bottoms victory on the horizon. Regardless of the activity from the best prediction markets, polls are still showing Jackson as the slight favorite. Still, these prediction market apps like Kalshi offer users the ability to weigh in on the Georgia Governor’s race and try to profit on the outcome.

Keisha Lance Bottoms Surges in Georgia Governor Odds

Trading volume for this Georgia Governor’s market is approaching $2.5 million and is only going to grow over the next two weeks before Election Day on November 3.

Jackson had taken over the odds lead on Kalshi late in September, but Lance Bottoms has turned the tide over the last week.

As of October 11, Jackson peaked with 55% probability on Kalshi, with Lance Bottoms coming in at 44%. That gap slowly started to close, with the Democratic nominee surpassing Jackson on the morning of October 19.

In the last three days, Lance Bottoms has now pushed the Georgia Governor odds on Kalshi to a 20-point difference. She is currently trading at 60% to Jackson’s 40%.

Kalshi is one of the top available Georgia prediction markets for elections. For those who want to trade on this or any midterm election market, our exclusive Kalshi promo code offers new users a $55 bonus after completing $25 in trades.

Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)

The 56-year-old Lance Bottoms was born in Atlanta and has been heavily involved in politics throughout her life. She began in the Atlanta City Council in 2010 and eventually became the 60^th Mayor of the city from Jan. 2, 2018, to Jan. 3, 2022. Following her stint as Mayor, she became the Director of the Office of Public Engagement and Senior Advisor to President Joe Biden in July 2022.

Lance Bottoms has had a lot of high-profile Democratic support during this race, including from Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. With early voting reported to be over 1 million in this race, it has provided a boost to Lance Bottoms in the markets, as early voting has tended to favor democrats.

Should Lance Bottoms prevail, she would become Georgia’s first female Governor of Georgia.

While Lance Bottoms has put forth a strong odds lead in the Kalshi market, most polling still shows this race as razor-thin.

Rick Jackson (R)

Jackson is a 72-year-old who grew up in Atlanta. He is a businessman who is estimated to have a net worth of about $3 billion. Jackson doesn’t have much political experience, but has been a notable donor to the Republican National Committee and the Make America Great Again Inc. super PAC.

Behind the backing of state Attorney General Chris Carr, Jackson managed to top Georgia Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones in the Republican primary. Along with the support of current Gov. Kemp, Jackson also has the backing of President Donald Trump.

Georgia has been a tight race in major political elections, and Trump’s endorsement creates a certain political divide that could have helped push the surge in early voting that is perceived to be an advantage for Lance Bottoms.

Regardless of the Georgia Governor odds, most polls see Jackson as a hair ahead of Lance Bottoms, but not more than the margin of error. Media outlets are categorizing this as a dead heat.