Odds on North Korea’s Next Leader – Bet on Whether Trump Will Tweet About Kim Jong-un
- Wagering is available on a number of props relating to the future of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
- Who will succeed him as leader? Will US President Donald Trump tweet about Kim Jong-un? Might there be an attempt made to liberate North Korea if there is a leadership disruption
- Examination of these props and predictions on the best bets are discussed in the story below
The status of the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un remains as mysterious and unknown as the country itself.
Depending on which news report you believe, Kim is either already dead, or is being kept alive in a vegetative state. Or, if you instead put your faith in US intelligence, Kim is simply laying low to avoid the threat of the coronavirus.
The last time images of Kim Jong-un were recorded in public was April 11th. He’s missed a couple of major North Korean celebrations.
His absence has led to wild speculation. It’s also resulted in a number of prop wagers being written featuring betting markets related to his health and the country’s future.
If Kim is truly ill and fighting for his life, who is his likely successor? Will US President Donald Trump, who calls Kim his friend, tweet about the situation? Finally, could uncertainty about their leader lead to an attempted regime change in North Korea?
North Korea’s Next Leader Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kim Yo-jong | +150 |
| Kim Jong-chol | +250 |
| Choe Ryong-hae | +300 |
| Pak Pong-ju | +400 |
| Kim Pyong-il | +500 |
| Kim Su-gil | +500 |
| Kim Il-sung | +5000 |
| Ri Sol-ju | +8000 |
| Dennis Rodman | +50000 |
All odds taken Apr. 28
The speculative of possibilities about what’s going on with Kim could fill a bingo card. A South Korean official claims the North Korean leader is fine and simply laying low out of the public eye to avoid contracting COVID-19.
UPDATE: #KimJongUn Whereabouts
• South Korea official: Alive & Well
• North Korea media: Sent ? to South Africa Prez. Today
• Still not seen since April 11
• Speculation: Heart, brain dead, injured in missile,Covid
• No word yet from China’s medical team dispatched to DPRK— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) April 27, 2020
There’s reports that a botched heart surgery either killed Kim or left him brain dead.
It is known that a Chinese medical team was dispatched to North Korea. But North Korean government officials insist that their leader is in good health. To back of this statement, they released photos of a letter Kim sent this week to the President of South Africa.
Who’s Next in Line?
If Kim’s life is truly in jeopardy, this could cause serious unrest within the country. There’s no clear successor to replace him.
Since Kim Il-sung rose to power in 1948, a member of the family has always been in charge. He was succeeded by his son, Kim Jong-il. When Kim Jong-il died, Kim Jong-un took over. Kim Jong-un is just 36. His oldest child is only 10. That leaves the normal succession out of the question.
Do not tell me a woman can’t be an equally brutal dictator of North Korea if she wants to be. pic.twitter.com/PoSut8ZQLn
— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) April 25, 2020
His sister Kim Yo-jong is thought to be next in line. She’s considered to be very thoughtful and observant, and an astute politician. North Korea is a very patriarchal nation, and might not be ready for a female leader. However, neither her brother Kim Jong-chul or half-brother Kim Pyong-il are looked upon as legitimate leadership material.
If they go outside the family, Choe Ryong-hae is considered the second-most powerful man in the country. He sits on the presidium of the politburo. As well, Choe is first vice chairman of the State Affairs Commission.
Let’s face it, though – don’t we all want it to be Dennis Rodman?
Pick: Kim Yo-jong (+150)
Odds Trump Tweets About Kim Jong-un Before May 2nd
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -550 |
| Yes | +325 |
Trump insists that he has a very good idea about what’s going on with Kim Jong-un’s health but can’t talk about it right now. Then Trump proceeded to speak about his great relationship with Kim and brag about how he’s saving the USA from being at war with North Korea.
What does Trump actually know? Who knows? But what we do know is that Trump can’t keep a secret. Especially when it offers him a chance to be boastful, or hurtful.
President Trump on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's health: "I do have a good idea but I can't talk about it now, I just wish him well…I hope he's fine, I do know how he's doing relatively speaking, we will see–you'll probably be hearing in the not too distant future"
— Ryan Browne (@rabrowne75) April 27, 2020
In this case, the former is in play. If Trump knows what’s going on in North Korea, he’ll seek to find a way to spin it so that it makes him look good.
Trump needs distractions to take attention away from how horribly he’s flubbed America’s response to COVID-19. Tweeting about Kim Jong-un and the current scenario in North Korea could give the USA something completely different to obsessively worry about.
Pick: Yes (+325)
Odds USA, China, or South Korea Liberates North Korea
| Outcome | Odds |
|---|---|
| No | -200 |
| Yes | +150 |
When it comes to regime change, America doesn’t do so well at bringing it about. See the Bay of Pigs, Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan for reference points.
People who might think democracy is a possibility in North Korea if there’s a new leader really haven’t paid attention to how ruthless Kim Jong-un’s henchmen – or henchwoman, in the case of his sister – truly are.
Pick: No (-200)
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
