Upcoming Match-ups

Odds of President Trump Being Suspended/Banned from Twitter Are Improving – Should You Bet on It?

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Politics News

Updated Mar 19, 2021 · 10:28 AM PDT

Donald Trump on stage with Michael Flynn
US President Donald Trump has already pardoned Michael Flynn, his former national security advisor. There's a prop bet out offering odds on others Trump might pardon prior to the end of his term on Jan. 20, 2021. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).
  • Twitter censored United States President Donald Trump this past week after his “looting and shooting” tweet
  • Twitter will likely ride things out and avoid getting in Trump’s way (or injecting themselves into politics) during an election year
  • See odds on whether POTUS will be suspended from the platform

United States President Donald Trump has been experiencing some friction with his favorite social media platform: Twitter.

As the war of tweets escalates, some are wondering if Trump will be either suspended or banned from Twitter. Is there any value betting on it happening?

Odds on Whether Trump Will Be Kicked Off Twitter Before 2022

President Trump Suspended From Twitter Before 7/1/20 Odds
No -4000
Yes +1000
President Trump Banned From Twitter Before 2021 Odds
No -2500
Yes +800

Odds as of June 4th

Trump Has Been Censored By Twitter

Originally, many people felt that Twitter wouldn’t do anything to Trump because he’s the President of the United States and one of the most powerful men in the world.

However, they did take a small yet bold move recently by censoring one of his tweets. He tweeted that “when looting starts, shooting starts” and they felt that incited violence.

YouTube video

Of course, Trump responded almost immediately with an executive order. Although it’s unclear how that impacts Twitter, it was his way of showing that he’s not going to stand for this if they decide to censor him – or worse.

The opening odds showed that Trump was a long shot to get banned from Twitter, but now they’ve come down to -2500, although it’s still unlikely he gets the boot.

Twitter Struggles to Police Most Users

It’s interesting to note that recently, a random user opened up a new Twitter account and started to tweet the exact same things as the President word-for-word.

It only took him about a week to get suspended, so it goes to show that there is preferential “tweetment”.

YouTube video

The main issue with this treatment is that Twitter really has a tough time policing everyone. In this era of whataboutism, it’s going to be really hard for them to make the case that the President should be suspended or banned, while so many other people on the platform are allowed to tweet freely.

Of course, one of the main examples that’s pointed to is Iran’s ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Twitter is actually banned in Iran but many of the country’s leaders still use it. Khamenei has basically tweeted that Israel is a cancerous regime that needs to be eliminated.

How could Twitter possibly make the case that Trump should be banned while leaving people like this online?

YouTube video

That’s just the tip of the iceberg, though, as so many other people do things that could be viewed as inciting violence. Even comedian Kathy Griffin’s half-joking tweet that someone should stab Trump with a syringe could be viewed similarly too.

The other main issue here is that in the United States, there is freedom of speech. That includes all sorts of vile hatred. Many people don’t agree with it, but the constitution does cover freedom of speech.

If Twitter starts to control what’s on their platform, they’re going to face a lot of freedom of speech lawsuits, which is not a rabbit hole they want to go down.

What’s the Best Bet?

Suspending or banning Trump is only going to help him even more. He plays up the narrative that the media is out to get him and while that’s fair to an extent, if Twitter banned or suspended him, he’d just yell even louder that they’re censoring conservative voices.

YouTube video

The reality is that this is an election year and everything is super charged. Twitter is going to ride this out and probably hope he doesn’t get reelected. However, if they do anything to them, they are essentially injecting themselves into a political firestorm that they don’t want any part of.

Author Image