Odds for Trump Mentions at Turning Point USA Event

• President Donald J. Trump is set to speak at a Turning Point USA event to motivate conservative young voters to turn out for the Republican Party
• This is a key voting bloc for the GOP in its attempt to retain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the coming midterms
• Prediction markets are speculating on what Trump will say at TPUSA amid the series of challenges he’s facing that are likely to define his second term as president

As he travels to Arizona to speak at the Turning Point USA: Build the Red Wall event, President Trump is well aware of the litany of obstacles he faces in pushing forward with his agenda. Since the House will almost assuredly fall under Democrat control after the midterms, keeping the Senate in GOP hands is crucial. Polls show that young voters have been disenchanted with Trump’s handling of the Middle East, the economy, and immigration.

Now, the president has antagonized them further with a series of unforced errors, including picking a fight with the Pope and posting images of himself as a Biblical figure. The former is inexplicable, and the latter is egregiously offensive to people of faith. That the TPUSA event is being held at a church only emphasizes how much borderline groveling Trump might need to do to bring those young voters back from the brink of apathy.

Trump had a great affinity for TPUSA’s co-founder, Charlie Kirk, and has been a consoling voice for his widow, TPUSA CEO Erika Kirk.

While Trump is, by nature, combative and tends to double and triple down when cornered, he is aware of the contextually abysmal polling numbers for young Republicans regarding his overall job approval and the Iran conflict. He remains above water with that demographic, but it’s not overwhelming like it normally would be in favor of the party’s standard bearer.

Prediction markets offer options on what Trump will say during his TPUSA remarks. Some are obvious. Others, less so.

Odds for What Trump Will Say at TPUSA Event

The market volume is getting heavy action and will be settled quickly since the president is speaking in a few hours.

Trump can be predictable, using the same terms over and over again. But he is also prone to shooting off the cuff and ignoring the text of his speech with lengthy stream-of-consciousness asides.

For example, there’s little point in investing in the word “midterm” since it’s such a key concern. And of course, he’s going to refer to himself in the third person.

Apart from that, there is a seemingly endless list of options.

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If President Trump says the selected word or phrase when he speaks at the Turning Point USA: Build the Red Wall event, the market will resolve to Yes. The source must be a reputable one, including Fox News, CBS, Axios, CNN, The New York Times, The Washington Post, ABC, and others. The primary way in which the market will be resolved is through video of the event itself. The payout criteria can be complicated, so it is imperative to understand the rules beforehand.

What Might Trump Say at TPUSA?

Radical Left

Trump knows how to motivate people through fear and intimidation. Saying “radical left” will do the trick with the TPUSA crowd. Regardless of how event-goers feel about Trump personally or how he’s handling the job, the possibility that the Democrats will take charge of Congress and hamstring Trump for the remainder of his term is potentially catastrophic for them.

Trump will almost certainly say “radical left.” The percentages are in the mid-80s.

Cheat/Cheater/Cheated

This is a familiar Trump lament. Whenever he loses or is in danger of losing, he retreats to accusing the other side of cheating. In this case, he will use the word in a similar manner as he would “radical left” and emphasize that if young voters don’t get out and support the GOP, it will be easier for the other side to cheat.

Since he says the word so often when he feels as though he’s under siege, there’s a very good chance he says it. Its percentage is in the mid-70s.

Afford/Affordability/Affordable

Because this is one of the stated concerns of young voters in the negative polling Trump and the GOP are receiving, it’s likely that he tries to address it. Touting his economic agenda and how it will benefit the attendees is a safe bet. There is also another angle he could take to use “afford” if he tries to defend his actions in the Middle East by saying, “We, as a country, could not afford to let Iran get a nuclear weapon.”

There is value here with “afford/affordability/affordable” at around 55%.

ICE/TSA

Polling shows that young voters believe the president’s immigration enforcement policy has been heavy-handed and cruel, so he might mention it. If he does, he could reference the word “ICE” to credit agents for the job they are doing. This market has “ICE/TSA” as an option, but it’s difficult to imagine him saying “TSA.”

The current percentage is in the mid-50s.

TikTok

While saying “TikTok” might be something that a person of Trump’s age might say to a younger person because “they’re into that Ticky-Tocky thing” without really knowing what it is as a way of connecting with them in an admittedly clumsy way, he did back down on his threats to ban it outright. Now, there is a restructured agreement that served as a face-saving escape hatch to keep it active in the USA. He even brought significant money into U.S. coffers with the deal.

While it’s unlikely he says “TikTok,” it might be worth a roll of the dice since it’s at about 30%.