Rogers Cutting El-Sayed Lead in Kalshi Michigan Senate Markets: Trade on Midterm Elections

• The midterm elections are just over one week away as tightly contested races go down to the wire
• The Michigan Senate race is one of the most highly publicized midterm elections, with (D) Abdul El-Sayed running against (R) Mike Rogers
• Rogers is cutting into El-Sayed’s lead in the Kalshi Michigan Senate markets with just over one week to Election Day

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One of the most publicized midterm elections is for the Michigan Senate seat.

Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed is up against Republican nominee Mike Rogers. The campaigns have featured a lot of attacks and heavily involved President Donald Trump.

Thus far, one of the top prediction markets in Kalshi has had over $13 million in trades for this particular race. While El-Sayed has been steadily in control of the odds on Kalshi, Rogers finds himself starting to cut into that lead with just over a week before Election Day.

El-Sayed Michigan Senate Odds Drop on Kalshi Markets

El-Sayed and Rogers are competing for the open Senate seat being left by Gary Peters, a retiring Democrat who has held the position since 2015. They each won their respective party’s nomination in August. Since that time, El-Sayed has been the favorite from the top prediction market apps like Kalshi.

Numbers for El-Sayed opened at around 57% following the primary, and Rogers hit a peak of 44.7% a week after getting the nomination. Since that point, El-Sayed was able to create some distance. He topped out at 72.7% on Sept. 24. But since then, Rogers has been able to slowly pick up some steam on the market.

Over the last month, Rogers has gained seven points on Kalshi, reaching 35%. This is the highest he has been since mid-September, but that was while he was on the decline.

If interested in trading on the Michigan Senate race, or any other of the big election races at the midterms, be sure to take advantage of our Kalshi promo code offer to get $55 in bonuses after making $25 in trades.

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

El-Sayed was born in Rochester Hills and the 41-year-old and was a former gubernatorial candidate in the state of Michigan, falling in the Democratic primary to current Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

El-Sayed served as the Director of the Wayne County Department of Health, Human & Veterans Services from 2023 to 2025. One of his major platforms has been focused on affordable health care for Michigan residents, as well as lowering the cost of gas and groceries.

Media appearances have been a big part of his campaign efforts. El-Sayed has appeared in many locations throughout Michigan, while also doing interviews for all major networks, including FOX News.

One of the focal points of El-Sayed’s race has been his religious background. If he defeats Rogers, he would become the first U.S. Senator of Muslim faith. That has been a target for his opponents, as the Rogers campaign and Trump have accused him of supporting terrorist organizations and being anti-Israel.

While ahead in most polls by multiple points, there is a portion of the Michigan Democratic Party that feels El-Sayed is too leftist and is not committing to voting for him.

Mike Rogers (R)

Rogers is a 63-year-old former First Lieutenant in the U.S. Army from 1985-89. The Livonia native served in the Michigan Senate for six years before becoming a U.S. Representative from 2001-15. He also was the Chair of the House Intelligence Committee from January 2011 to January 2015.

Rogers has run on a platform focused on Michigan education for kids, including improved reading support and the installation of shop classes back into the curriculum. He has also focused on housing regulations in an effort to ease the ability for residents to purchase homes.

While Rogers has his platform, most of the ads in support of his candidacy through PACs have focused on El-Sayed’s background. Trump has jumped on Rogers’ campaign efforts, even making a stop in Michigan on Sunday. Trump also focuses on El-Sayed’s Muslim background and frequently accuses him of being tied to terrorist organizations.

The attacks could be working, but Trump’s tariff war with Canada and the high gas prices in Michigan have opened up Rogers to attacks from El-Sayed that he isn’t interested in helping Michigan residents, only helping Trump’s agenda.