South Carolina Senate Odds Slowly Closing: Trade on Midterm Elections

• With the midterms now less than a week away, the Republicans are seeing historically safe red Senate seats in jeopardy of turning blue, with the latest threat occurring in South Carolina
• Sitting Republican Sen. Darline Graham is now in a tight race with Democrat Annie Andrews, who is a South Carolina doctor and political newcomer
• The stunning turn of events has roiled prediction markets, giving investors the chance to make a profit where there otherwise would not be a substantial opportunity available

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South Carolina has not had a Democrat serve as a U.S. Senator since Fritz Hollings more than 20 years ago. The Palmetto State is staunchly Republican and invariably votes that way, but South Carolina Senate odds on Kalshi show there could be a change coming.

With the current national dissatisfaction with President Donald J. Trump and unforeseen circumstances leading to an unknown serving as its up-for-re-election Senator, the door is slightly open for a shocking upset in SC.

Late Sen. Lindsey Graham was one of President Trump’s go-to people for political advice. The two had an initially rocky start to their relationship with Trump going so far as to publicly disclose Graham’s cellphone number during the 2016 campaign when Graham was also running for President. After that, the two forged a friendship. When Graham died unexpectedly at 71 in July, Trump tipped the scales for Gov. Henry McMaster to name Graham’s sister Darline until a special primary and then a runoff in August, in which she defeated Rep. Ralph Norman.

There were initial questions as to whether she would run for a full term, but she ultimately decided to seek the seat with Trump’s support. Now she is caught up in the potential blue tsunami that polls suggest could make landfall on Nov. 3.

South Carolina is the latest red state, along with Texas, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa, that is at least in the conversation to turn blue. Suffice it to say that if the GOP loses South Carolina, they will be at the Democrats’ mercy over the final two years of Trump’s term.

No form of mercy is likely forthcoming.

The question for the party and those who are interested in the prediction markets is whether the polling is accurate and if disaffected but typical Republican voters enter the voting booth and go so far as to check the box for a Democrat. There is a good chance for profit for investors who are correct in their assessment of this borderline unprecedented situation.

Markets Show South Carolina Senate Odds Closing Ahead of Midterms

Trading volume for this market is massive on Kalshi, having already surpassed $7.1 million.

Despite the GOP’s palpable dread, Graham maintains a 75% market probability to Andrews’s 25%.

For those who want to jump into this market, the Kalshi promo code offers new users a $55 bonus after completing $25 in trades.

Darline Graham (R)

Sen. Graham, 62, is viewed by her and Trump’s detractors as a nepotism pick to fill her late brother’s Senate seat in the four months before the election. If Lindsey Graham had not unfortunately passed away, this race would not even be up for discussion, no matter how close he was to the president. He was an institution in the state, and the populace liked him. His sister, however, is largely unknown, even with her understatedly ubiquitous presence running interference for her brother, serving as his gatekeeper and occasional bodyguard.

While she admittedly does not have a full grasp of the nuts-and-bolts issues and certainly doesn’t have the military expertise of her brother, a colonel in the Air Force Reserve, she did do admirable administrative work in South Carolina for adults with disabilities. Lindsey basically raised her after their parents died within 15 months of each other.

In a “normal” year, she would win easily. But the inexperience and connection to Trump have put the race in flux.

Worse for her is the lack of funds coming into the campaign. Andrews’s donations are reportedly about 23X what Graham has raised, which is unfathomable for the GOP.

Another problem is Rep. Norman, who lost to Graham in the special primary. He promised to vote for her, but said his family would not. Nor will he campaign with her.

She has a slight lead in every poll, but all are within the margin of error.

Annie Andrews (D)

Andrews, 45, is a South Carolina pediatrician who ran for U.S. Congress in 2022 and lost to Rep. Nancy Mace.

As expected for a medical professional, she has promised to try to expand healthcare access in the state and make it more affordable. She wants to protect Medicaid and is pro-choice. In addition, she is a gun safety advocate, wants to stop tax breaks for corporations and wealthy residents, hopes to help working families with rising daily costs, and is against data centers being built in the state.

By varying degrees, none of these platforms would be ideal for a candidate running for, well, anything in South Carolina. She does not go so far as to label herself a Democratic Socialist, which would end her campaign there and then. But her policies are progressive, far too progressive for this state. It’s a typical liberal campaign from the Barack Obama era, and she has come out for border enforcement and enforcing immigration laws. Given the current direction of the Democratic Party as a whole, she could reasonably be called a moderate.

Trump has spent time in South Carolina to boost Graham’s candidacy as he crisscrosses the country, venturing into states that he, as the Republican standard bearer, would not be expected to visit, to try and salvage as many Senate seats as he can with the headwinds the party faces to mitigate the expected losses.

While Democrats are understandably enthusiastic about their prospects for next Tuesday, South Carolina is less likely to result in an upset than ruby red Texas, where Ken Paxton is putting on a clinic in doing whatever he can to keep it competitive with one scandal after another. There are no known scandals with Darline Graham, and a severely damaging one cropping up would be a bigger October surprise than the scandal itself. Objective Democrats cannot possibly expect to win South Carolina no matter what the polls say, and they should direct their attention to states that are typically blue but are too close for comfort, like Michigan, and ones they have a viable shot to flip, like Maine and even Ohio.

Forget any blue wave or tsunami reaching the South Carolina coast.

Graham will almost assuredly be elected for a full term.