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Trump’s Odds Improve Slightly After Bubba Wallace Comments, But Economy Set to Drop, Polls Still Ugly

Donald Trump at podium
For the first time in more than a month, Donald's Trump's odds to win the 2020 US Presidential election have shortened. He went from +148 down to +130 over the past week. Photo by: Gage Skidmore (flickr)
  • Donald’s Trump’s odds to win the 2020 US Presidential election have shortened for the first time since late May. He went from +148 down to +130 over the past week
  • Is this a momentary recovery, or is Trump embarking on the comeback trail?
  • Analysis of the Presidential race and the corresponding odds can be found below

By bashing Bubba Wallace, Donald Trump appears to be ready to play the race card to drum up support to retain the Presidency – and there are early indications that this strategy may be working.

Trump’s betting line in the 2020 election odds shortened this week for the first time in over a month.  He’s at +130.

That’s his shortest betting line since June 21, when he was listed at odds of +123. It’s also the first time Trump’s odds have shortened from the previous week since May 28, when he dipped from -131 to -132.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden maintains his status as the favorite. However, his odds lengthened from -166 to -150.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds

Candidate July 7th Odds June 1st Odds Trending
Joe Biden -150 -166
Donald Trump +130 +148
Hillary Clinton +5375 +4750
Mike Pence +5650 +4675
Michelle Obama +11500 +11500
Kamala Harris +11750 +9250
Nikki Haley +15000 +10500
Andrew Cuomo +16500 +18333
Mark Cuban +25000 +20000
Elizabeth Warren +27500 +22500
Bernie Sanders +32599 +36500

Odds as of July 8th.

Americans are slated to go to the polls on Nov. 3.

Racially Motivated Strategy

The politics of division won for Trump in 2016 and he looks to be quite willing to go to that well a second time.

Trump’s recent tweet storm seems to be sending a message that he’s willing to stoke a racial divide in the USA in the hopes that it will win him reelection to a second term in the White House.

He started by demanding that Black NASCAR driver Bubba Wallace apologize for the furor created after a noose was reportedly found to be hanging in his team’s garage at Alabama’s Talladega Speedway. Trump labeled it a hoax.

The FBI investigated and found the rope to be a door pull. NASCAR then released a photo of the pull rope, which clearly resembled a noose. NASCAR also investigated at 1,684 garage pull ropes at 29 tracks used by the circuit and found no others shaped like this rope.

Trump also criticized NASCAR for banning the Confederate flag. Then he went after Washington’s NFL team and Cleveland’s MLB team for considering changing their nicknames, which are viewed as racially insensitive.

Damn the Pandemic, Full Speed Ahead

As cases in the USA soared past 3 million, and states that reopened too early are seeing significant spikes in the numbers of infected, Trump’s campaign strategy regarding the COVID-19 pandemic is evidently telling the American people to learn to live with it.

He fired off another Twitter salvo demanding that schools reopen in the fall. It came with a veiled threat to cut off federal funding if they didn’t.

At the same time, ICE announced that foreign students would be ordered out of the USA if universities opt to go with online studies in the fall. This is viewed as applying pressure on these schools of higher learning to also reopen, fearing the loss of revenue from those foreign students who pay higher tuition fees.

Desperate to get the economy rolling again, Trump looks to be willing to risk doing so at the cost of American lives. It’s a bad bet.

It might be earning him some points in the short term, but looks to be an unlikely winning strategy in terms of his reelection hopes.

A cross-section of various polls show Biden’s lead over Trump goes anywhere from six up to 14 points.

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