Upcoming Match-ups

Trump’s Odds Close in on Even Money as Results Start to Come in

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Politics

Nov 3, 2020 · 5:06 PM PST

Donald Trump looking smug
Donald Trump's reelection odds have improved considerably today. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).
  • Trump’s odds to win have improved from +186 on average to near even money
  • The results in Florida may be spurring the shift
  • See the live 2020 election odds, below

Early this morning, Donald Trump’s odds to win the 2020 election faded from +165 to +185.

Now that results are coming in, it would be an understatement to say they have improved. The table below shows the average live election odds as of roughly 8:00 pm ET.

2020 US Presidential Election Live Odds

Candidate Live Odds Odds at 2:00 pm ET
Joe Biden -155 -218
Donald Trump +126 +186

Odds as of 8:06 pm ET, Nov. 3rd.

Results in Florida Good Omen for Trump

With 81% reporting, Trump had the narrowest of leads on Biden (49.6% to 49.5%). But the best signal for the Trump campaign was the results in Miami-Dade. The heavily populated district, which went to Hillary by a big margin in 2016, is much closer this time around.

If the movement in the odds is based on the Florida results, it may be an over-reaction. Florida is an absolute must-win for Trump, while Biden has a number of realistic avenues to 270 without Florida’s 29 electoral votes.

Stay tuned for further updates on the live odds as they continue to shift during the evening.

Author Image

Let's have fun and keep it civil.