- Multiple recent polls show Donald Trump in a double-digit hole to Joe Biden, nationally
- Coronavirus cases are spiking in many states and the Dow Jones has fallen over 2,000 points since June 8th
- Trump’s reelection odds have gotten worse for the fourth straight week
The good news for President Donald Trump is that Tuesday, November 3rd, is still 131 days away. The bad news is that he has a massive amount of work to do.
Multiple polls conducted over the last week show the incumbent trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden by at least ten points: a NY Times/Siena poll from June 24th put Biden up 14 points. A Harvard/Harris poll from June 23rd showed Biden at +12. Even a FOX News poll from June 18th had Biden up 12 points.
At the same time, coronavirus cases are spiking in at least ten states: Alabama, Arizona, California, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Carolina and Texas “are seeing record-high seven-day averages of new coronavirus cases per day,” reported CTV News. The prospect of further shutdowns is playing a role in the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s decline over the last three weeks. The Dow closed at 27,572 on June 8th and was at just 25,488 mid-day Thursday.
For the fourth straight week, Trump’s reelection odds got worse, this time by a fairly significant amount.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
|Candidate||June 25th Odds||June 21st Odds||Trending|
|Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson||+10000||+10000||–|
Odds as of June 25th.
True Odds for the 2020 Election
Four days ago on June 21st, Trump’s odds to win the 2020 General Election were +123 (44.8% implied probability). Today, he checks in at +135 (42.6%).
Meanwhile, Biden’s odds improved from -145 (59.2%) all the way to -159 (61.4%).
Subtracting the juice – and assuming no other candidates have a measurable chance of winning – the true odds are -144 for Biden (59.04%) and +144 for Trump (40.96%).
A Continued Downward Trend for Trump
Going back less than a month to May 28th, the odds were nearly flipped for the two candidates. On that date, Trump was a -132 favorite, on average (56.9%). Biden trailed at +112 (47.2%), per SBD’s 2020 Election Odds Tracker.
Over the last four weeks, the trackers has been updated six different times. Each time, Trump’s odds have gotten worse, falling from -132 to -130 to +101 to +108 to +113 to +123 and now to +135.
— CNN (@CNN) June 18, 2020
As the national ethos is taken over by the BLM movement and a stronger-than-ever push for racial equality, Trump is finding himself on the opposite side from a majority of Americans on a key issue.
Looking back, Trump’s first big decline in the odds (-130 on June 1st to +101 on June 3rd) coincided with BLM protests surging and Trump gassing protestors on his way to a photo-op.
The Economy Is Flagging Again
One of the old saws of presidential elections is that incumbents don’t lose when the economy is doing well. Coronavirus made a huge dent in the US economy circa late February and, after a brief recovery period when states started reopening, it could be headed for another prolonged period of stagnation or regression.
The Dow plummeted from 29,348 on Feb. 19th all the way to 18,592 on Mar. 23rd, nearly a 37% drop.
At close on June 8th, it had rebounded to 27,572, just 6.7% lower than February 12’s all-time high of 29,551. But then, as states started reopening from coronavirus shutdowns, cases of the virus started surging again.
That’s leaving investors wary and its showing in the stock market, with the Dow dropping 7.7% since June 8th.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell nearly 700 points, or over 2.6%, as news of a significant amount of new Covid-19 cases across the U.S. appears to have investors spooked. https://t.co/cH5bY9Cs9n
— KVIA ABC-7 News (@abc7breaking) June 24, 2020
As mentioned at the start, the 2020 election is still 131 days away. That can be a lifetime in politics. But, at the same time, the US has been one of the least successful countries when it comes to battling COVID-19. Expecting the situation to be under control in October and November may be foolish.
And when it comes to racial equality and BLM, that rising tide is never going to ebb back in the GOP’s favor.
Let's have fun and keep it civil.