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204

Who’s Going to Win Ohio? Trump Given Short -175 Odds in a Must-Win Battleground

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Politics News

Updated Oct 10, 2020 · 7:29 AM PDT

Donald Trump making a point
Incumbent Donald Trump is the -175 favorite to carry Ohio in the 2020 US Presidential election. Photo by Gage Skidmore (Wikimedia).
  • Incumbent Republican Donald Trump is the -175 favorite to carry Ohio in the 2020 US Presidential election
  • Democrat challenger Joe Biden is listed at odds of +125
  • Trump won the key battleground state during the 2016 ballot

One of the key battleground states, Ohio swung for Donald Trump in 2016. Four years later, is there any chance that Ohio could be singing a different tune?

Trump is still the favorite to carry Ohio and its 18 Electoral College votes but it’s not looking as certain as it did a couple of months ago. Biden is closing the gap between himself and Trump in both the betting odds and in polling numbers.

That’s resulted in election prognosticators switching Ohio’s designation from leaning Republican to toss up.

Currently, Trump remains the -175 odds-on favorite in the 2020 election odds. However, at a betting line of +125, Biden is not far off that pace.

Odds to Win Ohio in 2020 Election

Candidate Odds
Joe Biden (Democrat) +125
Donald Trump (Republican) -175

Odds as of Oct. 9th at Bet365.

No Republican has ever won the White House without winning Ohio in the general election.

Ohio A Battleground Barometer

Veteran election observers insist that by watching how the electorate evolves in Ohio, it can prove to be a bellwether of what to expect nationally. Ohio’s population is in essence a microcosm of America. “This slice of the mid-west contains a bit of everything American,” The Economist noted. “Part northeastern and part southern, part urban and part rural, part hardscrabble poverty and part booming suburb.”

In 2016, the state went heavily toward Trump. He won 51.31% (2,841,006) of the votes, compared to just 43.24% (2,394,169) for Democrat Hillary Clinton.  However, after making a hard right turn in 2016, there’s a sense that Ohio could be in play in this election.

YouTube video

Biden is polling extremely well in the suburbs and that’s closing the gap between him and Trump. Major Ohio cities like Cincinnati and Dayton are leaning decidedly to the left.

On the other hand, Trump is polling big numbers in rural areas. Ohio’s rural spaces are predominantly populated by white voters who don’t have a four-year college degree. That’s always been a strong support group for Trump. With Ohio’s smaller-than-average non-white population, a group that usually leans Democratic, it’s harder for a Democrat to carry the state.

Perfect Since 1964

Another reason why election nerds watch Ohio so closely is because as Ohio goes, so goes the nation. Since Lyndon Johnson beat Barry Goldwater in 1964, every President of the United States has carried Ohio.

Ohio has also voted for eight of the last nine incumbents who’ve run for a second term. The last time the state rejected a second term for a sitting President was Democrat Jimmy Carter in 1980.

Polls Slightly Favoring Biden

The most recent polls taken in the state of Ohio indicate that the tide appears to be turning in Biden’s favor. A New York Times/Siena College poll released Oct. 7th shows Biden with a 45-44 lead over Trump. An ALG Research poll from Oct. 1st gives Biden a 48-46 edge.

There is other evidence of concern for the Trump campaign. Polls in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, which went for Trump by a seven-point margin in 2016, are displaying Biden with a one-point lead.

Then again, polling done in the past week by both the Trafalgar Group (48-44) and Hart Surveys (49-47) show Trump to be in the lead in Ohio.

The closeness of the race has forced Trump’s team to play defense and protect Ohio. By being forced to campaign this much in a state he won easily four years ago, it’s perhaps costing Trump in other tight races that require more focus.

Pick: Donald Trump (-175)

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