Who’s Going to Win Nevada? Is Trump Worth a Gamble at +200 Odds?
- Challenger Joe Biden is the -278 favorite to win Nevada in the 2020 US Presidential election
- Incumbent Donald Trump is a +200 underdog
- Trump lost Nevada to Hillary Clinton in 2016. He was the first to be elected President and lose Nevada since Jimmy Carter in 1976
Not surprisingly, Nevada likes to back winners. Donald Trump proved to be the exception to that rule.
During the 2016 US Presidential election, Nevada was carried by Democrat Hillary Clinton. It was the first time that the state voted for the loser in a Presidential ballot since backing Gerald Ford over Jimmy Carter in 1976.
The odds say the land that gambling built is going Democrat again. Trump is a +200 underdog to win Nevada. Democrat challenger Joe Biden is the -278 favorite to carry the state in the 2020 election odds.
Odds to Win Nevada in 2020 Election
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden (Democrat) | -278 |
| Donald Trump (Republican) | +200 |
Odds as of Oct. 5th.
Nevada’s six Electoral College votes have gone to Democrats in three straight and five of the past seven elections.
Nevada Deals Winning Hands
The 2016 Presidential election saw Nevada bucking its usual trend. The state went for Clinton by a slim margin over Trump.
Clinton drew 47.92% of the votes (539,260). Trump was at 45.50% (512,058). Not only was it the first time in 40 years that Nevada didn’t back the ultimate White House winner, it was the first time in four elections that the state’s preferred choice didn’t accumulate at least 50% of the popular vote.
Democrat Barack Obama garnered over 530,000 votes in both of his successful runs for President. Prior to Obama, Nevada went twice for Republican George W Bush (2000-2004) and twice for Democrat Bill Clinton (1992-96).
The Republicans carried the state with George HW Bush (1988), Ronald Reagan (1980-84), Gerald Ford (1976), and Richard Nixon (1968-72).
Ford was the previous Presidential candidate to carry Nevada and not win the general election. Before him, you have to go all the way back to William H Taft (1908) to find a candidate who won the Presidency but didn’t win Nevada.
Nevada AG Cautions Trump
Trump has been on social media encouraging his supporters on election day “to go into polls and watch.” Nevada Attorney-General Aaron Ford believes Trump is seeking to intimidate voters.
“Donald Trump has proven his [penchant] for trying to encourage illegality, including having people trying to vote twice,” Ford told MSNBC. “I’ll prosecute for that.”
Trump also told "his supporters" to "go into the polls and watch very carefully."
But he wasn't talking about poll watching. He was talking about voter intimidation.
FYI — voter intimidation is illegal in Nevada. Believe me when I say it: You do it, and you will be prosecuted.
— Aaron D. Ford (@AaronDFordNV) September 30, 2020
Ford also strongly cautioned people not to engage in any such activity in his state that could be interpreted as voter intimidation.
“FYI – voter intimidation is illegal in Nevada,” Ford tweeted. “Believe me when I say it: You do it, and you will be prosecuted.”
Biden Ahead in Polls
A poll published Sept. 28 by the University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School showed Biden with 46% support, compared to 41% for Trump. The New York Times gives Biden a seven-point advantage.
Even Fox News is showing Biden with a nine-point lead over Trump in the state at 52-41. People under the age of 35 (63-27) and Hispanics (61-33) are the strongest Biden demographics. Whites (48-46) lean slightly toward Trump, while rural voters prefer him 52-40.
NEVADA
Biden 46% (+5)
Trump 41%University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School/@betusracing, LV, 9/10-25https://t.co/EG29eSEPUX
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 29, 2020
Nevada’s population is 48.7% white, 29% Hispanic, 9.1% African American, 8.3% Asian American, and 3.4% multiracial.
Analytics site fivethirtyeight.com took an cross-section across the state of several available polls. The numbers show Biden with an average lead of 6.2 points (49.4-43.2).
Pick: Joe Biden (-278)
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An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
