Who’s Going to Win Michigan? Biden’s -225 Odds Spell Trouble for Trump in Key Swing State
- Democratic challenger Joe Biden is a solid -225 favorite to win Michigan during the 2020 US Presidential election
- Incumbent Donald Trump carried Michigan during the 2016 vote
- Trump’s win ended a streak of six straight Presidential elections which saw Michigan go to the Democrats
Squeaking out a win in Michigan four years ago is a big reason why Donald Trump is sitting in the Oval Office. This time around, Michigan could play a major role in bumping Trump out of that chair and putting Democrat Joe Biden in the White House.
Michigan’s 16 Electoral College votes went to Trump in 2016 by the narrowest of margins. He garnered 2,279,543 votes, compared to the 2,268,839 who cast their ballot for Democrat Hillary Clinton. In percentage terms, Trump beat Clinton 47.25 to 47.03. But on the Electoral College scoreboard, that was enough to record a 16-0 shutout victory in the state.
This time around, the numbers suggest that Michigan is swinging back to Biden and the Democrats. The latest poll shows Biden with as much as a 10-point lead over Trump. The oddsmakers are also solidly backing Biden. He’s the -225 favorite to carry the state in the 2020 election odds.
Odds to Win Michigan in 2020 Election
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Biden (Democrat) | -225 |
| Donald Trump (Republican) | +175 |
Odds as of Sept. 24th at Bet365.
Trump is given a betting line of +175 to win Michigan.
Michigan a True Swing State
Michigan doesn’t always go with the flow when it comes to Presidential election outcomes. However, once the state goes one way, it tends to stay over there for awhile. It’s a pattern that might bode well for Trump.
Voting for Trump in 2016 marked the first time since 1988 that the state favored a Republican candidate. Michiganders went for Democrats in each of the six prior elections.
Biden calls out Trump for ‘blue states’ comment: ‘He’s saying if you live in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania—states with Democratic governors—you’re not his problem, he has no obligation to you.’ pic.twitter.com/iLLbxRxGER
— NowThis (@nowthisnews) September 23, 2020
From 1972-88, Michigan voted five straight times for the Republican candidate. Prior to that, it was three successive elections to the Democrats, preceded by three straight for the Republicans.
The last time Michigan did a one-off in terms of party support was in 1944. The state went for Republican Wendell Willkie in 1940 but switched over to Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944. Michigan went back to the Republicans and Thomas Dewey in 1948.
Nine Out of Ten Polls Back Biden
The website 270towin.com displays a consensus of 10 polls taken in Michigan so far during the month of September. Nine of those polls display Biden in front.
BIG: Either one of us is off or @RobertCahaly is picking up some real movement here since our own Sept 2-3, 2020 Michigan fieldwork – "Michigan: Biden 51%, Trump 43%" – https://t.co/jZbCfx58oP https://t.co/uLj7FZLRHh
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 24, 2020
Five of the polls show Biden garnering at least 50% of the vote. The overall average gives Biden a significant lead of more than five points over Trump at 48.8 to 43.7.
Interestingly, the one poll the favors Trump 47-46 comes from the Trafalgar Group. They were the only polling company that correctly forecast Trump winning Michigan during the 2016 election.
Those ten aforementioned polls also didn’t include one released Thursday by Survey Monkey that gives Biden a 53-43 advantage.
Trump’s Lost The Soccer Moms
Trump swung a dozen counties from Democrat to Republican in 2016. He won nine of 14 Congressional districts.
White women embraced Trump four years ago. In 2016, 51% of all white female voters and 57% of white female voters who did not have a college education went for Trump.
Biden leads Trump by 21 points among white women in Michigan. If that holds, there’s no path for Trump. pic.twitter.com/2Y24oGPEuU
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) July 26, 2020
Such support is not in evidence this time around. The latest polls show Biden over 20 points ahead of Trump among Michigan women (58-37).
Trump still has a chance in Michigan but it’s a slim one.
Pick: Joe Biden (-225)
Other articles in this series:
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.
