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Who’s Going to Win Minnesota? Polls and Odds Favor Biden (-300) Over Trump (+225)

Joe Biden speaking
Democrat challenger Joe Biden is a heavy -300 favorite to carry Minnesota in the 2020 US Presidential election. Photo by @WCCO (Twitter).
  • Challenger Joe Biden is the odds-on -300 favorite to carry Minnesota in the 2020 US Presidential election
  • Those are the shortest odds given to Biden in the so-called swing states
  • Minnesota has gone Democrat in the last 11 Presidential elections

Both the odds and the polls in Minnesota are leaning heavily toward challenger Joe Biden in the upcoming US Presidential election. There’s solid evidence behind these projections.

Biden has history and tradition on his side; Minnesota is among the bluest of blue states. The Gopher State has gone for the Democrats in 11 successive US Presidential elections.

Biden is listed as the -300 chalk in the 2020 election odds. Those are his shortest odds in any of the states deemed to be swing states.

Oddsmakers are listing Republican incumbent Donald Trump with a betting line of +225.

Odds to Win Minnesota in 2020 Election

Candidate Odds at Bet365
Joe Biden (Democrat) -300
Donald Trump (Republican) +225

Odds as of Sept. 20th.

The last Republican to carry Minnesota in a Presidential election was Richard Nixon in 1972.

Trump Came Close in 2016

Trump’s narrow loss to Hillary Clinton in Minnesota during the 2016 election gave Republicans hope that they might finally be able to flip the state. Clinton beat Trump by just 1.51 points.

That was the narrowest margin of victory in Minnesota since 1984. Walter Mondale nipped Ronald Reagan by a scant 0.18 points in that election.

However, the numbers show that Biden is completely in control of the Land of 1,000 Lakes.

An ABC News-Washington Post poll that came out Wednesday showed Biden ahead of Trump by 16 points (57-41)  among likely voters in Minnesota. A Morning Consult poll gave Biden a 48-44 edge over Trump.

The Biden campaign isn’t taking his lead in the state for granted. They’ve invested millions of dollars in television advertising. Biden has blasted Trump over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. He’s also been extremely critical of Trump’s alleged insults of military veterans.

Trump’s campaign countered with ads touting the recent Middle East peace agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

Voting Already Underway

Minnesota was among four states that launched early voting on Sept. 18. Turnout was heavy on the first day voters could cast their ballot.

Traditionally, high turnout numbers are a bad sign for the incumbent. People who are satisfied with the way things are going aren’t rushing to get to the polls.

Both Trump and Biden held rallies in Minnesota on the day that voting got underway. It was in Minneapolis where George Floyd was killed by the police, sparking the Black Lives Matters protests that continue in some US cities today.

Trump, who has tried to paint himself as the law and order candidate, told his rally in Bemidji that a Biden Presidency would lead to further unrest and people wouldn’t feel safe in their own homes.

That message clearly isn’t resonating with Minnesotans, however. The Washington Post-ABC poll is showing that people in the state find Biden to be more trustworthy at dealing with crime and public safety than Trump by a margin of 11 points.

Biden a Safe Bet

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, who ran against Biden for the Democratic Presidential nomination, was among his Vice-Presidential candidates. One of the likely reasons for choosing Harris over Klobuchar was because Minnesota was not a huge concern.

When it comes to swing states where he’s currently trailing, Trump stands a better chance of beating Biden in Michigan or Wisconsin than he does in Minnesota.

Pick: Joe Biden (-300)


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