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Cook Out 400 Odds, Picks & Predictions

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Jul 25, 2023 · 1:52 PM PDT

NASCAR Cup Series drivers Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr wave to fans
Apr 3, 2022; Richmond, Virginia, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick (4) and NASCAR Cup Series driver Martin Truex Jr. (19) waves to fans during driver introductions prior to the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond International Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports
  • NASCAR travels to Richmond, Virginia, for the Cook Out 400 set to run on Sunday, July 30th, 2023
  • The contending favorites include Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin
  • Below are the Cook Out 400 predictions, picks, and betting odds ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR heads to Richmond Raceway for the 22nd race of the 2023 season. The little short track is a mere 3/4 mile long, has 14 degree banked turned and an eight degree bump on the front stretch. The race distance totals 300 miles (400 laps). What else could occur this weekend?

This weekend’s race is one week after the Pocono 400 where Denny Hamlin bumped and held off Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. for the victory. It was Hamlin’s 50th triumph of his NASCAR career.

The table below lists the complete slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Cook Out 400 from Richmond (win, podium finish, and top-five finish). Under the table, find the Loudon predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

NASCAR Cook Out 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Five Odds
Martin Truex Jr. +475 +130 -150
Kyle Larson +500 +140 -135
Denny Hamlin +650 +180 -115
Kevin Harvick +750 +200 +110
Christopher Bell +750 +200 +110
Kyle Busch +850 +250 +120
William Byron +900 +260 +120
Joey Logano +1200 +350 +150
Ross Chastain +1600 +450 +220
Chase Elliott +1600 +450 +220
Ryan Blaney +2200 +600 +300
Tyler Reddick +2800 +700 +350
Ty Gibbs +2800 +700 +350
Brad Keselowski +3000 +750 +400
Aric Almirola +4500 +1000 +600
Alex Bowman +4500 +1000 +600
Chris Buescher +5500 +1500 +650
Bubba Wallace +5500 +1500 +650
Daniel Suarez +6500 +1600 +800
Chase Briscoe +7000 +1800 +800

Martin Truex Jr. (+475) and Kyle Larson (+500) are almost co-favorites with Denny Hamlin lurking at +650.  Richmond does not offer a ton of ways to pass and short-track drivers can rack up a lot of laps lead. Do not count out Kyle Busch and even William Byron in the mix. Larson, Truex Jr, and Hamlin have all won here before.

NASCAR drivers get around the track with a 80-155-165 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning after 3:00 pm ET on USA.


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Odds as of July 25th at DraftKings Sportsbook. Everyone in a DraftKings-eligible state can lock in this DraftKings promo code to bet on the Cook Out 400, while bettors in the Bluegrass State can check out DraftKings Kentucky

The Toyota Tour Rolls Into Richmond

Naturally, Joe Gibbs Racing has won three of the last five late summer races at Richmond. Martin Truex Jr. has two of those wins and Kyle Busch had the other. The last six races have seen the trio of Christopher Bell, Truex Jr, and Hamlin finish in the top five four times. Look at last week as Hamlin and Truex Jr. both were in the top three.

So, Caesars Sportsbook has Truex Jr. at +450. Four drivers are nestled at +650 including Bell, Hamlin, Harvick, and Larson.. It is interesting to note that Larson has some actual value at Caesars this week. That is rare. Larson had won a Spring race and has finished on the pole the past two “second races.” The Hendrick Motorsports Racing car is fast on this track and was in testing earlier this season but over the long run, Toyota was quicker.

Cook Out 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Joey Logano – Team Penske
2021 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Larson – Hendrick Motorsports Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2020 Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske
2019 Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing
2018 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Martin Truex Jr. – Joe Gibbs Racing

This race has seen some insane moments including the 2022 race and the nefarious “tape-gate” where Chase Elliott got a gift. Also, in 2020 and 2021, the event was only 350 miles (140 laps).

What Can Chevy Do To Stop Joe Gibbs Racing?

NASCAR Cup Series odds come in with seven drivers at +900 or better. Martin Truex Jr. tops the favorites. After that, Kyle Larson is +500 but again +650 at Caesars. It is one of those races where a little momentum late goes a long way.

Richmond’s short-track correlation is interesting and features higher tire wear. That tends to favor the Toyota but do not count out Larson, Byron, and even Alex Bowman.

Saturday qualifying begins at 1:20 pm ET. Expect quick track conditions on Saturday but watch the weather for early Sunday anyway. One never knows. Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid 80’s for the race.

Cook Out 400 Predictions & Picks

So, Sunday afternoon may be dry again. The weather can always change between now and then. However it appears the front should clear in time for the race.

Can Toyota keep on rolling or will Kyle Larson (err anyone in a Chevy) demand some respect?

Practice and qualifying on Saturday may be a little different compared to Sunday. Wind will be different and the track heat won’t be quite as blistering. However, there will still be enough tire wear overall. Again, it boils down to when does the rain end on Sunday. A cooler track likely favors the Chevy and maybe even a Joey Logano or Kevin Harvick in the Ford cars.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Martin Truex Jr. to Win (+500 – Caesars)
  • Other Contenders: Kyle Larson (+650 – Caesars), Christopher Bell(+750), Kyle Busch (+850), William Byron (+900)
  • Longshots:  Brad Keselowski (+3000), Alex Bowman (+4500)
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