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Pocono 400 Predictions & Odds 2023

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

Updated Jul 19, 2023 · 4:26 PM PDT

Denny Hamlin on the track
Jun 25, 2023; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) leads drivers early in the final stage of the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
  • NASCAR heads down to the Poconos for the Pocono 400 set to run on Sunday, July 23rd, 2023, in Long Pond, Pennsylvania
  • The contending favorites include Chase Elliott, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin
  • Below are the Pocono 400 predictions, picks, and betting odds ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race

NASCAR heads back to the Pocono Raceway for the 21st race of the 2023 season. The tri-oval err “Tricky Triangle” is 2.5-miles and features different banked turns every step of the way. The race distance totals 400 miles (160 laps). What might happen this weekend?

This weekend’s race is less than one week after the Crayon 301 where Martin Truex Jr. took advantage of the rainout on Sunday to easily win on Monday afternoon in New Hampshire..

The table below lists the complete slate of NASCAR Cup Series odds for the Pocono 400 from Pennsylvania (win, podium finish, and top-five finish). Under the table, find the Loudon predictions and best bets for this weekend’s NASCAR action.

NASCAR Pocono 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win Podium Finish Odds  Top Five Odds
Martin Truex Jr. +500 +150 -135
Denny Hamlin +500 +150 -135
Kyle Busch +500 +150 -135
Kyle Larson +750 +200 +110
William Byron +900 +250 +120
Ryan Blaney +1100 +300 +150
Ross Chastain +1100 +300 +150
Chase Elliott +1200 +350 +160
Tyler Reddick +1400 +400 +190
Christopher Bell +1400 +400 +190
Kevin Harvick +1600 +450 +200
Joey Logano +1600 +450 +200
Daniel Suarez +2800 +800 +350
Bubba Wallace +2800 +800 +350
Ty Gibbs +3500 +900 +450
Brad Keselowski +3500 +900 +450
Alex Bowman +3500 +900 +450
Chris Buescher +6000 +1500 +750
AJ Allemdinger +9000 +2200 +1100
Austin Dillon +9000 +2200 +1100

Kyle Busch enters this race as co-favorites with Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. as +500 favorites with Kyle Larson and William Byron not too far back. However, after Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano at +1600, the numbers drop off quite a bit. With a track that runs so uneven (three different angled turns, the numbers do sort of form a pattern

NASCAR drivers get around the track with a 30-65-65 stage lap setup when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning after 2:30 pm ET on USA.



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The Toyota Love Affair in Pocono

So, Joe Gibbs Racing finally felt like they had won a race last year in Pennsylvania with full momentum. Denny Hamlin held off Kyle Busch and it looked like they were figuring out the new cars. However, NASCAR found the tape. With clear tape that could not have been thicker than a credit card, both Hamlin and Busch were disqualified and Chase Elliott was awarded the win.

Naturally, Caesars Sportsbook has Hamlin as the favorite at +500. Martin Truex Jr. is at +550 with Kyle Busch at +600. It is interesting to note that obviously Busch drives a Chevy powered by Richard Childress Racing. Ross Chastain and Christopher Bell see modest bumps and then after Harvick, there is that drop. The bottom line is that Toyota has won this race since 2017. They may not always be the fastest to start but are there at the finish.

Pocono 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2022 Chase Elliott– Hendrick Motorsports Racing* Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing
2021 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Chris Buescher – Roush Fenway Racing
2020 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Ryan Preece – JTG Daugherty Racing Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing
2019 Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing
2018 Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing Daniel Suarez – Joe Gibbs Racing Kyle Busch – Joe Gibbs Racing

*Chase Elliott awarded the victory after Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch were disqualified

This race has seen some insane moments including the 2022 race and the nefarious “tape-gate” where Chase Elliott got a gift. Also, in 2020 and 2021, the event was only 350 miles (140 laps).

Can Chevy Find a Way This Week?

NASCAR Cup Series odds come in with seven drivers at +1000 or better. Martin Truex Jr. topped previous co-favorites Kyle Larson and William Byron at +500. After that, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch are right there.

Pocono is technical and its correlation is interesting and unique at every turn. Chevy drivers like Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, and William Byron perform quite well here with top lap intervals even on longer runs.

Saturday qualifying begins at 3:20 pm ET. Expect quick track conditions on Sunday but watch the weather anyway. One never knows.

Pocono 400 Predictions & Picks

So, Sunday afternoon may not be wet this time which would mean no Monday race. Right now, practice, qualifying, and Raceday all look good with sun and temperatures in the 75 to 80 range.

Can Toyota win again or will Chevy spoil the inevitable?

Watch practice and qualifying on Saturday. See if any of the Chevy’s have a really good setup or even one of the Toyota’s down the line. Bubba Wallace and Tyler Reddick could be on the radar here along with Ty Gibbs. For Chevy, Daniel Suarez has snagged a pole here before and knows the track well.

Here are our best bets:

  • Top Pick: Denny Hamlin to Win (+500)
  • Other Contenders: Martin Truex Jr. (+550 – Caesars), Kyle Larson(+750), Kyle Busch (+600 – Caesars), William Byron (+900)
  • Longshots:  Bubba Wallace (+3000 – Caesars), Daniel Suarez (+3000) – Caesars, Ty Gibbs (+3500)
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