F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Picks & Odds – Baku Race Preview
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Max Verstappen starts eighth, but his practice pace has us looking at a much bigger result.
- A Monza comeback may be influencing how sportsbooks price Kimi Antonelli’s next recovery drive.
- Read below for F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks and odds in our Baku race preview.
George Russell put his Mercedes on pole by 0.837 seconds. Kimi Antonelli put the other Mercedes in the wall during Q1. One teammate made the qualifying session look easy; the other gave the sportsbooks a problem to price.
Russell is the obvious favorite. At the prices we found, our better opportunities are behind him. Max Verstappen starts eighth after spending practice near the top of the timing sheets. Pierre Gasly and Liam Lawson give us two different ways into the points market. We also have two matchup bets on Lando Norris, who starts fifth.
Baku’s long straight made a well-timed tow valuable in qualifying. Some drivers got one, while others lost time to a mistake on their final lap. We are taking the grid seriously, but we also watched the other three sessions. Over 51 laps, the race pace we saw this weekend should matter more than one well-timed slipstream. Lights out is set for 7:00 a.m. ET on Saturday, September 26 on Apple TV.
F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Odds
Odds from Kalshi ahead of Saturday’s race in Baku. New to the format? Compare the top prediction market apps, or browse other apps like Kalshi before the green flag.
F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix Picks
Podium/Top-3 Finish: Max Verstappen (+200 at DraftKings)
Verstappen starts eighth, which gives him work to do for a podium. It also gives us a price we would not have seen if qualifying had matched his pace throughout practice.
He finished second in FP1, third in FP2 and fastest in FP3. Our model projects him at 4.74 overall, so we are backing him to outperform that central result by a couple of places. The speed to do it has been there all weekend.
Baku’s long straight should give the Red Bull opportunities to attack, and Verstappen won this race last year. He will have to pass several quick cars, but +200 is a fair return for taking that chance.
Points/Top-10 Finish: Liam Lawson (+125, BetRivers / theScore Bet)
Lawson starts 11th. Our model projects him at 9.00 overall. The points are one position away, which sounds simple right up until Baku decides everyone could use a surprise.
Oliver Bearman starts directly ahead in tenth, and the midfield behind them is close. Lawson has a sensible path into the top ten at a plus-money price. We will take +125 on the driver our model expects to gain the spot.
Points/Top-10 Finish: Pierre Gasly (-275 at theScore Bet)
Gasly took a shock pole at Monza and has brought Alpine’s straight-line speed to Baku. He finished seventh in FP2, sixth in FP3 and qualified seventh. Our model projects him at 9.04 overall, just inside the points.
Colapinto gave Gasly a helpful tow on the qualifying lap that got him into Q3. Credit Alpine for arranging it. We have also seen enough from Gasly in practice to like his chances over a race distance.
The price is aggressive. At -275, we would appreciate Alpine keeping all four wheels attached and the strategy department away from any sudden bursts of creativity. It is still our preferred side, and theScore Bet’s number is the best we found.
Race Matchups
Lando Norris over Oscar Piastri (+110 at DraftKings)
Piastri starts third. Norris starts fifth. Our model flips them, projecting Norris at 3.56 overall and Piastri at 4.58.
Piastri caught a useful slipstream in qualifying. Norris locked up on his final lap and missed his chance to improve. Piastri earned the better grid spot, but those two laps leave us room to question whether he will be the quicker McLaren for the whole race.
Norris was slightly faster in FP2, where just 0.026 seconds separated the teammates. Piastri got the tow and the prettier grid position. We get the driver our model prefers at +110.
Lando Norris over Lewis Hamilton (-160 at DraftKings)
Hamilton starts sixth, directly behind Norris. Our model has Norris at 3.56 and Hamilton at 4.53 overall. We like Norris’s pace, his projection and the one-place head start.
Hamilton has shown enough speed to make us work for the -160. A clean opening lap would help. So would Norris staying out of trouble long enough for the McLaren’s race pace to matter.
The two Norris matchups are connected. If he has the race we expect, both tickets have a strong chance. If his afternoon goes sideways, we will hear about it twice. We are accounting for that when staking the card.
Max Verstappen over Kimi Antonelli (+150 at theScore Bet)
Antonelli winning from 19th at Monza appears to have made sportsbooks reluctant to bet against another comeback. Fair enough. That was a spectacular drive. It also took a timely Virtual Safety Car, a stop for fresh medium tires while Russell stayed out on worn hards, and just about every ingredient in the Italian pantry arriving in the right order. Great tomato sauce. Difficult recipe to repeat.
This time Antonelli starts 16th after hitting the wall in qualifying. Verstappen starts eighth and went first, second and third across practice. Our model still projects Antonelli slightly ahead, 3.88 to 4.74, which tells us plenty about the speed of that Mercedes.
The question at +150 is whether Kimi can come through the field and catch a Verstappen who has looked quick all weekend. Monza proved he is capable of a remarkable recovery. We like the price on Max making this one a little less cinematic.
Prefer a traditional book? Compare the best F1 betting apps before lights out in Baku.
You can follow every play we make on JuiceReel, including anything we add before lights out Saturday at 7:00 a.m. ET. We’ll sync new selections as soon as we make them, so the card there will always have our latest plays and prices. Lights out and away we go.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
