F1 Dutch Grand Prix Predictions, Long-Shot Picks & Race Winner Odds
By Phil Bobbitt in Racing
Published:
- Saturday’s Sprint revealed a massive gap between Formula 1’s leading manufacturers and the rest of the field.
- Our Dutch Grand Prix card fades two drivers in the finishing-position markets and targets a pair of plus-money teammate matchups.
- Read below for F1 Dutch Grand Prix predictions, long-shot picks and race winner odds.
Zandvoort gave us 24 laps of useful information during Saturday’s Sprint. Most of that information was some variation of, “Good luck passing anybody.”
George Russell started first and won. Lando Norris started second and finished third after Charles Leclerc made one of the afternoon’s few meaningful passes near the front. Kimi Antonelli gained a position at the start, and the rest of the field largely settled into formation.
There was also a massive performance split. Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull occupied the first seven finishing positions. Pierre Gasly finished eighth, more than 30 seconds behind Lewis Hamilton in seventh. Gabriel Bortoleto followed Gasly home in ninth.
Formula 1 brought 11 teams to the Netherlands. Four of them appear to be competing in the Dutch Grand Prix. The rest were invited to enjoy the beach and provide visual depth for the television broadcast.
Sunday’s card attacks that separation while leaving room for a few changes inside the leading group. We are betting against an Alpine reaching the points, backing two drivers with stronger projected race pace than the cars directly ahead of them and asking Lewis Hamilton to have a mildly disappointing afternoon.
Nothing personal, Lewis. We only need you to finish sixth.
The 2026 Dutch Grand Prix begins Sunday at 9:00 a.m. ET on Apple TV.
F1 Dutch Grand Prix Race Winner Odds
Odds from Kalshi ahead of Sunday’s race at Zandvoort. New to prediction markets? Lock in our Kalshi referral code, and see how the top prediction markets price the Dutch Grand Prix.
F1 Dutch Grand Prix Predictions
Top-5 Finish
Lewis Hamilton: No (+180, Kalshi)
Hamilton starts fifth, behind Norris, Russell, Antonelli and Piastri. His Ferrari teammate, Leclerc, starts sixth. Max Verstappen will line up seventh.
The starting position puts Hamilton exactly on the edge of this market. The SpeedwaySteve2 model agrees, projecting him to finish fifth. That would normally make a plus-money “No” difficult to justify.
The problem for Hamilton is the traffic coming from behind.
Leclerc showed excellent race pace during the Sprint, making his soft tires last before passing Norris for second on Lap 18. He starts one position behind Hamilton and projects to finish fourth. Verstappen also appears happier with Red Bull’s long-run pace than he was with its one-lap qualifying speed.
Passing on track will be difficult. Strategy creates another route. An undercut, overcut or well-timed stop could move either Leclerc or Verstappen ahead of Hamilton during the pit cycle. Once track position changes hands, getting it back becomes a much larger problem.
Hamilton can run a perfectly respectable race and still finish sixth or seventh. At +180, that is enough for us.
F1 Dutch Grand Prix Long-Shot Pick
Franco Colapinto Top-10 Finish: No (-229, Kalshi)
If the opening lap is clean, this wager feels awfully close to free money.
The first eight starting positions belong to Mercedes, McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull. Those four manufacturers were light years ahead of everyone else during the Sprint, with a 30-second crater opening between Hamilton in seventh and Gasly in eighth.
That leaves only two realistic points positions for the rest of the field.
Colapinto starts 14th. His teammate, Gasly, starts 11th and is the only Alpine driver carrying the team’s upgraded package this weekend. Even with that advantage, Gasly barely missed Q3 and remains behind Gabriel Bortoleto and Arvid Lindblad in the race for the final points positions.
Colapinto has lacked Gasly’s pace throughout the weekend. The model projects him to finish 14th and ranks him 14th overall. Reaching the top 10 would require him to beat Gasly, erase the deficit to several quicker midfield cars and hope someone from the leading group encounters trouble.
Chaos is always possible. Zandvoort places walls, gravel and unpredictable weather in convenient locations for anyone interested in ruining a wager.
A normal race should keep Colapinto comfortably outside the points.
Matchups
Kimi Antonelli over George Russell (+108, BetRivers)
Russell starts second after winning Saturday’s Sprint from pole. Antonelli starts immediately behind him in third. Getting plus money on the driver starting one position farther back might not appear generous at first glance.
Our model sees the race differently.
Antonelli projects to win, while Russell projects to finish third. Kimi ranks first in the model’s overall rating.
He has also looked comfortable at Zandvoort. Antonelli led FP1, damaged his floor during a trip through the beach in Sprint Qualifying and still qualified fifth. He jumped Piastri at the start of the Sprint and finished only 0.385 seconds behind Norris.
Russell was excellent during the Sprint. We are not attempting to turn that victory into evidence against him. Antonelli simply appears to have the stronger car over a full run, which has been a familiar pattern throughout the season.
Starting directly behind Russell allows Kimi to stay attached during the opening stint. Mercedes can separate the strategies from there, and Antonelli’s tire management should give him several routes forward.
The model makes him the favorite in the matchup. BetRivers is generously offering +108.
Charles Leclerc over Lewis Hamilton (+120, BetRivers)
This matchup shares much of its logic with the Hamilton top-five fade.
Hamilton starts fifth, with Leclerc directly behind him in sixth. Qualifying gave Hamilton the advantage. Saturday’s Sprint suggested Leclerc may own the better race car.
Leclerc turned an alternate tire strategy into a second-place finish, preserving his softs long enough to attack Norris late. Hamilton finished seventh and ended the Sprint more than 12 seconds behind Russell. The difference in sustained pace was difficult to miss.
Our projections move Leclerc from sixth to fourth and place Hamilton fifth. That would cash the matchup without requiring either Ferrari to perform a miracle.
Verstappen’s presence behind them adds another wrinkle. If Red Bull’s race pace is as encouraging as the post-qualifying rumblings suggest, Max could force Ferrari into an early strategic decision. Leclerc appears better equipped to benefit from that fight.
Track position still matters, and Hamilton begins with it. That explains the plus price.
Race pace matters for considerably longer. At +120, we will trust Leclerc.
Looking for the best places to bet the Dutch Grand Prix? Check out our guide to the top F1 betting apps before Sunday’s race.
Phil Bobbitt is a motorsports betting analyst and recurring guest on CBS Sports HQ, The Early Edge, and VSiN’s A Numbers Game. He and his pal Steve developed a racing algorithm that’s profited over 260 units and $1 million in DFS winnings since 2020.
