- Following his fifth win of the season in Belgium, Lewis Hamilton has emerged as a heavy favorite in the Italian Grand Prix odds
- Hamilton’s historical dominance at Monza leaves little betting value at the top of the odds, but Daniil Kvyat and Daniel Ricciardo are both intriguing options in the race props
- We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Sunday morning’s running of the Italian Grand Prix at Autodromo Nazionale di Monza
Lewis Hamilton will have his sights set on a record sixth career victory at the Italian Grand Prix when he hits the track on Sunday morning at Autodromo Nazionale di Monza as a heavy -200 favorite in the Formula 1 odds.
Odds to Win 2020 Italian Grand Prix
|Driver||Odds to Win||Odds to Finish Top Two||Odds to Finish Top Six||Odds to Finish Top 10 at DraftKings|
|Carlos Sainz Jr.||+10000||+2000||+140||-200|
Odds taken September 2, 2020
Hamilton Running Away with Title Race
It was another race and another win yet again for Hamilton last weekend, as the three-time defending F1 champion took home the checkered flag at the Belgian Grand Prix. With wins in five of this season’s seven races to date, Hamilton has already amassed a 47-point lead over second-place Max Verstappen in the F1 Drivers Standings. Not surprisingly, the Mercedes driver has vaulted to a massive favorite to claim a record-tying seventh Formula 1 title this season, with future odds as short as -1600 at the few sportsbooks still offering them.
DRIVER STANDINGS: ROUND SEVEN 🏆
— Formula 1 (@F1) August 30, 2020
And while Hamilton was forced to settle for a third-place finish at Monza last year, there is no denying his dominance on what most observers consider to be the fastest track on the Formula 1 circuit. The defending champion claimed victory in Italy in four of the five previous years. In addition, Hamilton has started from the pole position and recorded the fastest lap on four occasions in the past six years.
So, with Hamilton’s history of dominance at the race, and spectacular weather forecast when it’s lights out, where is the betting value to be found in this weekend’s race?
The immediate urge among many sports bettors may be to look to Charles Leclerc, who outpaced the Mercedes duo of Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas to earn the win a year ago. However, with 2020 continuing to be a disastrous campaign for Ferrari, there is little reason to expect this weekend to be a joyous home race for the Italian constructor.
After finishing 14th last week in Belgium, Leclerc sits well off the pace as a distant +20000 bet to return to the top of the podium, while teammate Sebastian Vettel lags at +30000. With what has been a clearly inferior car compared to Mercedes Silver Arrows, Red Bull’s Honda, Racing Point’s Pink Mercedes, Ferrari are likely to be outclassed on the fast track at Monza. However, Leclerc remains worthy of consideration as a +100 bet to finish among the top ten.
Bottas Offers Value
With six podium finishes this season, including his season-opening win in Austria, Bottas offers value as a +400 second favorite. The 31-year-old Finn has reached the podium at this race in each of the past three years and is coming off a solid second-place performance last week in Belgium.
— INEOS (@INEOS) August 30, 2020
Pegged at +450, Verstappen has finished top three in each of the past six races, including his win at the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix. However, the Red Bull driver has enjoyed little success at Monza, finishing no better than fifth in five career appearances.
Ricciardo Enjoying Resurgence
That leaves Daniel Ricciardo as the most intriguing option among the drivers perched near the top of the Italian Grand Prix odds. The Renault driver has enjoyed somewhat of a resurgence in recent outings, turning in a pair of fourth-place finishes, including last week in Belgium. The Australian has also been a consistent performer at Monza, with last year’s fourth-place finish marking the fourth time in six years he has finished among the top five.
@Groupe_Renault PRESS OFFICE #Renault DP World F1 Team claimed a superb result from today’s Belgian Grand Prix, picking up 23 points courtesy of Daniel Ricciardo’s fourth place – and bonus point for Fastest Lap – and Esteban Ocon’s fifth place finish at Spa-Francorchamps.🥇💪💛🖤 pic.twitter.com/k4R9hU9rj5
— Hernán Cappellacci👊🔶💨💛🖤🔥🏁🏆🚥 (@heragu2002) August 31, 2020
While expecting Ricciardo to pay out as a +2000 bet to win on Sunday may be asking too much, he is very much worthy of consideration as a +275 bet to reach the podium for the first time since his victory at Monaco two years ago, and worthy of a value bet at +1200 to record the fastest lap at Monza for the second time in his career.
Kvyat Could Go Either Way
AlphaTauri’s Daniil Kvyat has flirted with the top ten all season and joins Leclerc as a +100 bet to crack it for a third time this season at Monza. However, the 26-year-old’s dismal history in this race also makes him worthy of consideration as a +1400 bet to be the first driver to retire from this weekend’s race.
Picks: Valtteri Bottas to win (+400); Charles Leclerc – Top Ten Finish (+100); Daniil Kvyat – First Driver to Retire (+1400)
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