NASCAR Brickyard 400 Predictions, Odds & Longshots to Bet (Sunday, July 21)

• The iconic NASCAR Brickyard 400 returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval this Sunday, with coverage beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET on NBC
• Denny Hamlin leads the NASCAR odds as the +400 favorite, just ahead of Kyle Larson at +600
•  Below, find expert NASCAR Brickyard 400 predictions, odds analysis, and top longshot picks to watch

The iconic Brickyard 400 returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval on Sunday, July 21, 2024. The green flag drops at 2:30 p.m. ET with live coverage on NBC.

After three years on the Indy road course, NASCAR’s best are eager to once again tackle the challenging 2.5-mile rectangular oval in pursuit of one of racing’s most coveted trophies. The 160-lap, 400-mile battle will test drivers and teams as they adapt the Next Gen car to the track for the first time.

Oddsmakers have tabbed Denny Hamlin as the early +400 favorite, followed closely by Kyle Larson at +600. Here are the latest odds for the 2024 NASCAR Brickyard 400:

NASCAR Brickyard 400 Odds

Odds as of July 20, 2024 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Get up to $1500 back with the BetMGM promo code for the Brickyard 400. 

Hamlin’s +400 odds imply a 20% probability that the Joe Gibbs Racing star will finally capture his first Brickyard 400 victory.

The Brickyard 400’s return to the oval has the NASCAR world buzzing. Can Hamlin finally conquer the Speedway that’s painfully eluded him? Will Larson’s team carry on Hendrick’s Indy dominance?

NASCAR Brickyard Predictions

While Denny Hamlin has never kissed the bricks, he stands out as the driver to beat on Sunday. The veteran has finished 3rd or better in five of his last seven starts on the Indy oval, including a heartbreaking crash while leading late in the 2020 race.

Hamlin led 31 laps at the similar Pocono triangle last week before ultimately finishing 2nd. On larger ovals this season, the #11 Toyota has paced the field for 230 circuits. Expect Hamlin—still searching for his first win of 2024—to be on a mission at a track that owes him one.

Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin were fighting HARD for the #Brickyard400 win in 2018. 😳 pic.twitter.com/CCuLCIofQM

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) July 18, 2024

In a race where experience and equipment excel, Kyle Larson is another clear favorite. The 2021 series champ is enjoying another strong season and finished 2nd to Hamlin at Pocono in June.

While Larson only has a single top-5 in six Brickyard starts, his Hendrick Motorsports team boasts a record 10 wins at Indy, including seven of the last 17. Larson’s extra seat time from running the Indy 500 in May could also prove beneficial.

Best Bet to Win: Denny Hamlin (+400 at FanDuel)

Top 5 Finish: Kyle Larson (-110 at bet365)

NASCAR Brickyard Longshots

History suggests it’s unwise to stray too far down the odds board at a track that strongly favors the elite teams and drivers. In fact, all but five of the 26 Brickyard 400 winners have gone on to win a Cup Series championship.

That said, there are a couple live longshots to consider for a top 10 or even a surprise win:

Christopher Bell (+2000)

Bell’s quietly put together another impressive season for Joe Gibbs Racing. The 28-year-old already has three wins and hasn’t finished worse than 12th over the last nine races.

He’s been stellar at Pocono recently, posting three top-6 efforts in his last seven starts. In his lone Brickyard 400 start in 2020, Bell came home a respectable 12th.

The only #Brickyard400 Christopher Bell has ever competed in was during the COVID year where there were no fans in attendance.

He says Indy has a great atmosphere but it's a little too early to tell exactly what Sunday will be like or if it'll feel like the first time again pic.twitter.com/fXrM4BVUts

— Steven Taranto (@STaranto92) July 19, 2024

Bubba Wallace (+2800)

Wallace is enjoying the best season of his Cup career and already has a win at Kansas and three runner-ups to his credit. He’s been particularly potent at Pocono, finishing 11th, 8th and 5th in his last three attempts on the Tricky Triangle.

In his two Brickyard outings, Wallace impressed with a 3rd in 2019 and a 9th a year later. At these odds, he’s worth a flier to contend for another strong result.

Consider sprinkling a little on Bell and Wallace in the top 5/10 markets or even for the outright win. Both have the equipment and current form to deliver a big payday if they can put together a complete race.