NASCAR Chicagoland 400 Predictions, Odds & Start Time (Sunday, July 5)

• Our NASCAR Chicagoland model found two bets we couldn’t ignore
• A five-position projection gap created our favorite plus-money bet
• The green flag flies Sunday at 6 p.m. ET on TNT

One of our favorite parts about building a betting model is that it doesn’t care about narratives. It doesn’t know who won last week. It doesn’t know who’s getting the most television time. It definitely doesn’t know which driver everyone on social media has decided is “due.”

Our spreadsheet has enough problems without adding opinions. It just eats numbers. Sometimes those numbers confirm what everyone already believes. Other times they tell a completely different story.

This week, they were surprisingly stubborn. No matter how we adjusted the model, one thing never changed: Toyota finished as the highest-rated manufacturer. We tried moving the knobs around anyway. The spreadsheet basically shrugged and said, “Cute. It’s still Toyota.”

That’s hardly a surprise considering Kansas emerged as Chicagoland’s closest statistical comparison. Toyota dominated that race by placing four cars inside the top five. Tyler Reddick found Victory Lane, while Denny Hamlin produced the highest SpeedwaySteve2 Race Score of the season despite finishing fourth after a late caution spoiled what looked like a winning afternoon.

That doesn’t guarantee another Toyota celebration on Sunday. It does explain why these two bets kept climbing to the top of our card.

NASCAR Chicagoland 400 Odds

Prediction Markets

Odds to Win

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Denny Hamlin

28%

Tyler Reddick

18%

Kyle Larson

18%

Christopher Bell

8%

Ty Gibbs

7%

Ryan Blaney

6%

Chase Elliott

5%

Bubba Wallace

5%

William Byron

4%

Chris Buescher

4%

Predict

At prediction site Kalshi, Denny Hamlin is trading at a relatively short 28-cent favorite to win (equal to +257 odds) with Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson next, both at 18 cents (equal to +456 odds).

Kalshi prices as of 11:37 am ET, July 5. Claim SBD’s exclusive Kalshi promo code before today’s race.

NASCAR Chicagoland 400 Predictions

Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish (-120, DraftKings)

If Toyota is the biggest storyline entering Sunday’s race, Chase Briscoe is our favorite way to capitalize.

The SpeedwaySteve2 model projects Briscoe for an 8.14 average finishing position, leaving him well inside the top 10 before the green flag even waves.

The rest of the profile tells the same story.

Briscoe enters with a +1.22 Recent Z, a +1.01 Track Z and one of the best comparable-track resumes in the field. While he ranked 13th in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric, that doesn’t concern us much. The practice model is built to identify sustainable race pace rather than reward one flashy lap, and Briscoe still graded as a legitimate contender.

Kansas provides another layer of confidence.

Briscoe finished third while producing one of the strongest SpeedwaySteve2 Race Scores in the field. He generated 48 quality passes, spent nearly the entire afternoon inside the top 15 and looked every bit like a driver capable of contending on this style of intermediate track.

Eventually, you stop searching for reasons to fade the numbers.

Toyota has separated itself from the competition on comparable tracks throughout 2026, and Briscoe has emerged as one of the manufacturer’s most dependable drivers. With an average projected finish well inside the top 10 and the model repeatedly landing on Toyota, laying a modest price feels more than fair.

William Byron over Ryan Blaney (+115, theScore)

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Our second favorite play comes from an entirely different angle.

This isn’t about manufacturer strength.

It’s a projection gap that’s just too large to overlook.

The SpeedwaySteve2 model projects William Byron for a 5.88 average finishing position compared to 11.22 for Ryan Blaney. A difference of more than five positions in a head-to-head matchup is enough to grab our attention, especially when the sportsbook is offering plus money.

Byron has developed one of the best statistical profiles among the non-Toyota drivers on comparable tracks. He also ranked sixth in the SpeedwaySteve2 Practice Metric, reinforcing what the historical data has shown throughout the season.

If Kansas had a twin on the schedule, it’d probably look a lot like Sunday’s race.

While Tyler Reddick celebrated in Victory Lane, Byron turned in another strong afternoon and continued to display the type of race pace that translates well to worn-out intermediate tracks. Because Kansas grades as Chicagoland’s closest statistical comparison, those numbers deserve additional weight in this week’s projections.

Blaney has enjoyed another excellent season and remains capable of winning almost anywhere. This matchup, however, is about identifying value rather than deciding which driver we’d rather have a beer with.

Sometimes the best bets are the ones where the projections and the odds refuse to agree.

When our model projects Byron more than five positions ahead of Blaney, we’re happy to take the plus money.