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NASCAR Goodyear 400 Odds and Picks

Chris Wassel

by Chris Wassel in Racing

May 6, 2021 · 7:20 AM PDT

NASCAR Goodyear 400 odds - Kyle Larson & Kevin Harvick
Kyle Larson celebrates after winning a NASCAR Cup Series auto race in Las Vegas, in this Sunday, March 7, 2021, file photo. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)
  • Kyle Larson is the favorite this week at the Goodyear 400 on May 9th, 2021
  • Brad Keselowski heads to Darlington after another top-three finish trying to win again on Sunday
  • We’ve got you covered with all the odds and trends ahead of Sunday afternoon’s race at Darlington Speedway

NASCAR heads back to the South with a Sunday afternoon race after last week’s incredible Buschy McBusch Race 400 with the running of the Goodyear 400 on Sunday, May 9th, 2021. Kyle Larson is a +400 favorite to take home the checkered flag in the Goodyear 400 odds. Kevin Harvick, a winner at this event last year, is listed at +700 to win this week’s race at Darlington Speedway.

NASCAR Goodyear 400 Odds

Driver Odds to Win at DraftKings Odds to Finish Top Three Odds to Finish Top 10
Kyle Larson +400 +130 -420
Denny Hamlin +600 +170 -335
Kevin Harvick +700 +200 -286
Martin Truex Jr. +750 +210 -265
Kyle Busch +800 +230 -250
Brad Keselowski +900 +260 -230
Chase Elliott +1000 +280 -210
Joey Logano +1400 +375 -162
William Byron +1600 +450 -143
Ryan Blaney +2000 +550 -129
Alex Bowman +2000 +550 -129
Christopher Bell +2500 +650 -112
Kurt Busch +3500 +900 +120
Matt DiBenedetto +4000 +1000 +135
Tyler Reddick +4000 +1000 +135
Austin Dillon +5000 +1100 +160
Aric Almirola +8000 +1800 +235
Erik Jones +8000 +1800 +235
Chris Buescher +10000 +2000 +275

Odds as of May 6th

Kyle Larson Favored to Win at Darlington

NASCAR drivers run on a 1.366-mile asphalt track when the flag drops for the Sunday afternoon race beginning just after 3:30 PM EST. That track has been extremely good to Larson, who has finished in the top-three in three of his last four appearances on the Darlington track. Larson finished 19th in last week’s Buschy McBusch Race 400 after driving too hard on the last restart as he bumped Ryan Blaney into the wall with him. Larson had led a race-best 133 of the 267 laps.

Larson had raced quite well but let the bottom row get ahead of him when Brad Keselowski slowed to protect track position, and that led to the end of him contending. However, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has performed quite well at Darlington.

He has finished in the top ten five times in six races and third or better in three of the previous four appearances. That includes leading a series-best 497 laps in that span on this track. The driver also averages 35.3 fastest laps per race at Darlington. That leads all drivers. He did not race at Darlington in 2020.

Now, Larson will be starting from the 14th position on Sunday afternoon thanks to NASCAR metrics. The No. 5 has been excellent at staying near the front of the field. Larson thrives at the 23-25 degree banked turns like few others (aside from maybe Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin). Expect Larson to learn his lesson from Kansas last Sunday.

Goodyear 400 Recent Winners

Year Race Winner Pole Position Most Laps Led
2020- II Denny Hamlin – Joe Gibbs Racing Ryan Preece – JTG Daughtery Racing Clint Bowyer – Stewart-Haas Racing
2020 – I Kevin Harvick– Stewart-Haas Racing Brad Keselowski – Team Penske Kevin Harvick – Stewart-Haas Racing
2005-2019 No Race No Race No Race

Kevin Harvick Likes The Darlington Track

Sports bettors do not have much history to go on with the Spring race at the Darlington track, as seen above. The Stewart-Haas driver won the first installment of the race last May and led the most laps. Harvick is again listed in the top ten in NASCAR Cup Series odds, but the 45-year-old surged last week to a second-place finish and now has eight top-ten results in 2021.  Harvick will start second on Sunday.

Harvick only did not win last week at Kansas because he ran out of laps. Again, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver has been incredible on the track “too tough to tame”. He led 159 laps in the race last year and won pulling away. Then he had another top-three finish during the second installment. Harvick may arguably have the best chance to win as he even won the Fall race as well.

Can Denny Hamlin Tame Darlington and Win Again?

The Joe Gibbs Racing driver finished 12th at Kansas last week (led with 25 laps to go before kissing the wall) but enjoys the luxury of winning on this track last year. Hamlin finished fifth and first last year on the Darlington track. The driver led just 12 laps in his win and is currently still leading the Cup Series standings. Hamlin will start seventh on Sunday afternoon. His GRID rating ranks the best by far, so is it a matter of time?

When Hamlin won last year, he again led the final laps and pulled away. The other installment of the race saw the No. 11 contend throughout. He and Kevin Harvick have both won at Darlington a total of three times.

Hamlin has 13 top-ten finishes in 17 races at Darlington. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has a very good chance to win, but taking a top-three finish is the safer bet. Like Harvick, Hamlin has incredible results at Darlington and solid +600 odds to win along with +170 odds to finish in the top three at the Goodyear 400.

The Picks: Kevin Harvick to win (+700);  Denny Hamlin to finish Top Three (+170), Kyle Larson to finish Top Five (-139)


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