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France vs Wales Six Nations Odds and Picks

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Rugby

Mar 15, 2021 · 5:46 PM PDT

Wales players celebrate a try scored against Italy
Wales' Josh Adams, right, celebrates with his teammate Wales' George North during the Six Nations rugby union match between Italy and Wales, in the Olympic stadium in Rome, Italy, Saturday, March 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)
  • Unbeaten Wales (4-0) are 7.5-point underdogs away to France in their Saturday, March 20th, Six Nations rugby match
  • A win or a draw by Wales will clinch the Six Nations championship
  • France is 2-1 after losing its last match 23-20 to England

Not much was expected from Wales at the outset of the Six Nations rugby tournament. Evidently, as the Welsh side heads to Paris with a chance to clinch the championship via a victory over France, that remains the case.

Despite a perfect 4-0 record and a Triple Crown verdict over England, Ireland, and Scotland already in hand, Wales will go to France as 7.5-point away underdogs. Wales have already won at Scotland as five-point away underdogs.

They’ve also won twice in the tournament as home underdogs, beating both Ireland and England at the Principality Stadium.

Kickoff for this Sunday, March 21st, match is set for 4:00 pm ET at the Stade de France. NBC Peacock Premium is carrying the broadcast.

Wales vs France Six Nations Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Wales +215 +7.5 (-121) OFF
France -286 -7.5 (-106) OFF
Draw +2400

Odds as of Mar. 15th at DraftKings.

France (2-1) is the only country still in with a chance to snatch the Six Nations title away from Wales. But their championship futures are +210 on average. Sitting nine points behind Wales with two games to play, it’s a virtual (if not mathematical) certainty that France will need the maximum five points from both its remaining matches (four points for a win plus one bonus point for scoring four-plus tries).

One Win Away

Wales did the needful on the weekend in Rome. The Welsh hammered the winless, hapless Italians 48-7, scoring seven tries in the process.

Wales opened a 27-0 advantage by halftime and kept the foot on the gas, running up another 21 points after the interval. The big margin of victory was important; point differential is the first tiebreaker if teams are tied on points at the end of the tournament. The Welsh now have a 24-point advantage on France (+63 vs +39), who face Scotland in their final match.

Center George North scored the first try of the second half to equal Shane Williams’ Wales record of 22 Six Nations tries

The Welshmen have already matched the country’s Six Nations tournament record by scoring 16 tries.

A Stumble at Twickenham

In their first action since their match with Scotland was scuttled by a COVID-19 outbreak within the French squad, France let a 17-13 halftime edge get away in the 23-20 away loss to England. The after-effects of the virus were evident in the French side.

They faded badly toward the end of the match and seemed to lose their legs. In fact, France never managed to possess the ball inside England’s 22-meter line through the entirety of the second half.

This concern over match fitness is especially problematic for the French. They are a side that prefers to play the game with pace and imagination.

French captain Charles Ovillon was quick to point out that France still controls its own fate in the Six Nations championship. While that’s true, is also a fact that the French will have their work cut out for them to end their 11-year Six Nations title drought.

Wales in Driver’s Seat

Every time Wales have won the Triple Crown since 2000, the Welsh have gone on to complete the Grand Slam. Captain Alun Wyn Jones could become the first player to win four Six Nations Grand Slams with Wales.

Both Jones and coach Wayne Pivac believe that Wales hasn’t played its best rugby yet.

In reality, Wales need not win at France to clinch the title. A draw will be sufficient to guarantee the Welshmen the Six Nations crown.

Even if they keep the margin of defeat to seven points or fewer, they would earn a single bonus point in a loss. They could also earn a bonus point by scoring four tries, regardless of outcome. If they do not allow France to score four tries, the French would only earn four points for a victory.

As mentioned, if Wales get to 20 points or limit France to a four-point win, the best France can do is tie Wales in the standings. Wales would win the crown in that case unless France makes up the 24-point gap in point differential between this game and their final match against Scotland.

Pick: Wales +7.5 (-121)

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