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Scotland vs Italy Six Nations Odds and Picks

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Rugby

Mar 17, 2021 · 7:01 AM PDT

Scotland's Hamish Watson and Scott Steele celebrating after beating England
Scotland's Hamish Watson, left, and Scotland's Scott Steele celebrate at the end of the Six Nations rugby union international between England and Scotland at Twickenham stadium in London, Saturday, Feb. 6, 2021. Scotland won the match 11-6. (AP Photo/Alastair Grant)
  • Scotland are 26.5-point favorites over Italy in their Six Nations rugby match on Saturday, March 20th 
  • The Scots are 1-2 in the tournament while Italy are 0-4
  • Scotland has won nine matches in a row over Italy

A Six Nations tournament that began with so much hope and promise for Scotland continues with a meaningless home match against winless Italy on Saturday, March 20th (10:15 am ET).

The Scottish have dropped two straight after opening with an impressive 11-6 win at England. Dreams of their first-ever Six Nations crown long ago faded away.

At least Scotland’s losses were close calls – a one-point setback to Wales and a three-point defeat to Ireland. Italy can only dream of being close in a match at the end.

It’s now 31 losses in a row for Italy in Six Nations play following last weekend’s 48-10 home drubbing handed the Italians by Six Nations top of the table squad Wales.

To no one’s surprise, the Scots are whopping 26.5-point favorites to take care of Italy.

Italy vs Scotland Six Nations Odds

Team Moneyline Spread Total
Italy OFF +26.5 (-113) OFF
Scotland OFF -26.5 (-113) OFF
Draw OFF

Odds as of Mar. 16th at DraftKings.

Saturday’s match takes place at Murrayfield Stadium in Edinburgh. It will be broadcast by NBC Peacock Premium.

Scottish Heartbreak

Scotland’s pluck can’t be denied, even though Scottish luck has clearly run out. Against Wales, they gamely fought with 14 men after prop Zander Fagerson was shown a red card, falling by the narrowest of margins, 25-24.

Against Ireland, the Scots trailed 24-10 in the second half. A rash of injuries led to fullback Stuart Hogg playing fly-half and reserve scrum-half Scott Steele playing flanker, because Scotland manager Graeme Townsend had already emptied his bench of sub forwards.

Still, with six minutes to play, amazingly Scotland had pulled even on the scoreboard. Factor in Scotland’s terrible first-half performance – 34% territory, 39% possession and 11 turnovers, and the fact theyd lost 75% of their own lineout balls, it was stunning that the Scots were in the match at all. A Johnny Sexton penalty goal at the end, though, pulled Ireland through 27-24.

Overmatched Italians

Compared to the Italian rugby side, Ferrari enjoyed a dominant season on the Formula One circuit. Italy is poised to complete its sixth straight winless Six Nations tournament.

The Italians have proven to be epically bad in this year’s event. Italy shows a point differential of -142, scoring five tries while surrendering 26. The average score through Italy’s four defeats is 46.75-11.25.

Over their 31-match losing skid the Italians have been outscored 1,250-409. There have been calls for a relegation-style playoff between emerging European sides for the sixth spot in the tournament, but at this stage Italy’s place in the Six Nations appears to be secure.

One comforting notion the Italians can take out on the pitch with them on Saturday is that their last Six Nations victory was a 22-19 triumph over Scotland at Murrayfield on Feb. 28th, 2015.

Injury Updates

Scotland will get Fagerson back from his red-card suspension. However, it appears that fly-half Finn Russell (head injury) is out. That’s a problem, because second choice Adam Hastings is under suspension, meaning it’s likely that Edinburgh stand-off Jaco van der Walt will get the call.

Scotland locks Jonny Gray (ankle) and Scott Hastings (hand) are also doubtful starters.

For Italy, lock Marco Lazzaron is out. He’ll undergo surgery after suffering a detached tendon in the biceps of his left arm.

Italy have called up second-row forwards Riccardo Favretto and Andrea Zambonin and wing Pierro Bruno for this match.

Pick: Scotland -26.5 (-113)

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