Sagan Is a -225 Favorite to Win His 7th Points Classification at 2019 Tour De France
- The Tour de France begins Saturday, July 6th, in Brussels
- Peter Sagan is a heavy favorite to win the Green Jersey
- Value is present if you think Sagan may falter
So much focus at the Tour de France (Jul. 6th-28th) is on the Yellow Jersey. However, there are several races within the race, including the Green Jersey, which goes to the rider who collects the most points over the 21 stages of racing. Points are awarded for reaching various milestones, including the finish line, at or near the front of the peloton.
Slovakian Peter Sagan has won the points classification in six of the last seven years and is a prohibitive favorite to take the prize again this year. Does that make him the best bet? Let’s look at the latest odds and consider a strategic wager.
2019 Tour de France Green Jersey Odds
| Rider | Odds |
|---|---|
| Peter Sagan | -225 |
| Dylan Groenewegen | +400 |
| Ella Viviani | +450 |
| Michael Matthews | +700 |
| Caleb Ewan | +1600 |
| Alexander Kristoff | +2200 |
| Julian Alaphilippe | +2500 |
| Wout Van Aert | +2500 |
| Matteo Trentin | +5000 |
| Sonny Colbrelli | +6600 |
| Andre Greipel | +8000 |
| Edvald Boasson Hagen | +8000 |
*Odds taken 07/03/19.
Peter Sagan Has Dominated the Points Classification Recently
Sagan has failed to win the Green Jersey just once in the last seven years, and he probably would have won if he didn’t get the heave-ho from race officials. While there is always a chance of injury or disqualification, he is a very reasonable favorite based not just on results, but by the overwhelming margin he has won each of his crowns.
His implied odds indicate he has just over a 69-percent chance of winning. The recent past suggests that is not an unreasonable number.
Michael Matthews Won When Sagan Was Disqualified
He took advantage of Sagan’s DQ and won the Green Jersey in 2017. Twice he has finished third in the competition.
Matthews rides for Sunweb, who just lost their leader Tom Dumoulin because of a knee injury. While the team will suffer, Matthews could be more dangerous in time trials and climbing than before because he had been instructed to beef up in those areas to support Dumoulin. Now that Sunweb will be behind him, there could be an opportunity to score big.
Wout Van Aert Is In Form
If you are looking for a price, Van Aert provides serious upside. He won the Green Jersey at last month’s Critérium du Dauphiné, in large part dominating the event, and does a lot of things well.
It is possible Team Jumbo–Visma won’t use Van Aert in a way that allows him to compile enough points, but it is equally as reasonable to think he is the most talented guy on the team and that will be apparent in the early stages. If he shows what he did in the Critérium, his team, and the competition, will not be able to ignore it.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
