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2018 FIFA World Cup Favorites Update: Can Germany Repeat?

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Jun 13, 2018 · 9:51 AM PDT

FIFA World Cup final - Germany v. Argentina
Germany is hoping to pull off a FIFA World Cup repeat in 2018. Photo by himanisdas (flickr)
  • Brazil and Germany lead the pack as favorites to lift the 2018 FIFA World Cup
  • The majority of sportsbooks have Brazil listed as the favorite
  • Do the Germans stand a chance to meet and defeat the Brazilians in the final?

Since we began tracking World Cup futures odds to win outright, Germany and Brazil have been the favorites to lift the trophy among online sports betting sites.

Based on the average odds from some of our top sportsbooks (see chart below), both countries opened with close to +500 odds to win the title. On October 16, 2017 Germany were slight favorites over Brazil, with Brazil being just over the +500.

Since that time money has come in on both countries as the tournament nears. With odds dropping on both, they can now each be had for an average of +400. Brazil has seen a bit more of that money and are now the consensus favorites with sportsbooks.

In fact, of the four books below, three have Brazil priced as favorites, while only one listing has Germany priced as number one.

Brazil and Germany FIFA World Cup Odds

Sportsbook Brazil Germany
Book 1 +475 +400
Book 2 +400 +450
Book 3 +400 +425
Book 4 +330 +380

Should the online sports betting sites be correct and Brazil is victorious, it would go against the trend of only one South American team ever winning a World Cup on European soil. Now coincidentally that one team was Brazil, but it was way back in 1958 when they won in Sweden. Of the ten total times the tournament has been hosted in Europe, all nine other times a nation from Europe has won.

Friendly Warm Up Results

Why has Brazil taken more money to become the consensus faves? While there isn’t much to choose from between the two, Brazil has posted some very impressive results in their warm up fixtures leading up to the tournament.

In their six friendly matches since completing the qualification round, they are undefeated. During these matches they scored 12 goals while only conceding once. In their most recent tune up against Austria on Sunday, Gabriel Jesus put them up 1-0 in the 36th minute and they never looked back, rolling to a 3-0 win.

In that match many of their stars shined with Neymar and Philippe Coutinho scoring as well, and Willian and Roberto Firmino adding assists. The other impressive result came on March 27 in Berlin, when the Brazilians shut out the Germans on their own pitch 1-0. Jesus again scored right before halftime to get the winning goal.

Jesus scored a total of three goals in Brazil’s last six friendly matches. Though Brazil likely played a more starter-heavy lineup in the match, they were still without their star Neymar.

Gabriel Jesus
Brazil’s Gabriel Jesus scored three goals in their six warm up matches leading up to the World Cup. Photo by Agência Brasília (Wikimedia Commons) [CC License].

Neymar is now back since being injured with a broken foot and made his first start in over three months in the Austria match.

The loss to Brazil during friendlies, was actually only one of several disappointing results of late for the Germans.

Germany was only able to win one of their six tune up matches. That win finally came last Friday against lowly Saudi Arabia. The Saudis happen to be the lowest ranked nation in the World Cup. The narrow 2-1 win gave them a 1-3-2 record in recent friendlies. Germany did play against several World Cup hopefuls in England, France and Spain. However, they also lost to the same Austrians 2-1.

Germany have their own player coming off a foot injury in number one goalkeeper and captain Manuel Neuer. Neuer missed most of the season with a hairline fracture in his foot. He made his return in the Austria game and should be ready to go for Germany’s first game on Sunday against Mexico.

Given their recent results, midfielder Toni Kroos may have summed up the reason Brazil have overtaken them as favorites best. When asked about their recent performances he commented on the team’s need to improve.

“We’re not as good as we’re made out to be, or as some think we are,” he said. “There’s huge room for improvement.”

“We’re not as good as we’re made out to be, or as some think we are.” ~ Germany’s Toni Kroos.

Despite recent results, each nation is still expected to top their respective groups. This leaves the door open for a potential match up in the finals. If you’re looking to bet on these two meeting on July 15th in the final, you can find odds below.

Name the Finalists: Brazil/Germany

Sportsbook Brazil/Germany
Book 1 +1000
Book 2 +1000
Book 3 N/A
Book 4 N/A
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