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AC Milan vs Napoli Odds & Picks – Serie A Matchday 7

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Sep 18, 2022 · 5:34 AM PDT

AC Milan's Franck Kessie, center, in action during a Serie A soccer match between AC Milan and Napoli, at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Sunday, March 14, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • It’s AC Milan vs Napoli in Serie A Matchday 7 on Sunday, September 18
  • Both teams form part of a three-way tie at the top of Serie A, along with Atalanta
  • We preview the game, look at the AC Milan vs Napoli odds, and offer some picks below

It’s AC Milan vs Napoli on Matchday 7 of the new Serie A campaign on Sunday, September 16 at the San Siro, with kick-off scheduled for 2:45pm ET.

There’s a fascinating look to Serie A right now with three teams, including AC Milan and Napoli, tied at the top of the table and with just four points separating the top nine. Napoli currently leads the table on goal difference.

We preview AC Milan vs Napoli, look at the Serie A odds and offer some analysis, team news, and picks for this huge Italian top flight clash.

AC Milan vs Napoli Odds

Matchup Moneyline
AC Milan +113
Napoli +255
Draw +230

Odds as of Sept 18 at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this or other games.

Milan have been listed at +113 favorites for the win, which has a 47% implied probability. Napoli are considered outsiders, but not by a huge amount, and have an implied win probability of 25% at +255. The draw is only a bit shorter than the Napoli win at +230.

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Over/Under and Spread

Caesars have listed under 0.5 goals in plus money but only just, at +110, with the flip side, over 0.5, goals on offer at -140.

Neither offers great value, although given the high stakes, a goalless draw, with both teams canceling each other out, is always a possibility.

If you’re new to betting on soccer and want to know about Soccer Futures and Outright Betting, then our page offers help on how to do this on Serie A and all other leagues.

AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction

The form that took AC Milan to their first Scudetto for over a decade has continued into the new season. In total, they have now gone 22 Serie A games unbeaten and look capable of defending their title.

They currently share top place with this weekend’s opponents and Atalanta – with Napoli leading the pair of them on goal difference – and come into this game off the back of successive Serie A wins. Two games ago they enjoyed derby day success with a win over Inter and followed it up with an equally impressive win over Sampdoria, where they played half the game with 10 men.

Despite losing the attacking threat of Rafael Leao for almost half the game in Genoa, after he saw red for two bookable offenses, they still managed to come back from behind to earn a 2-1 win.

Six From Six at the San Siro

Their good form continued in midweek in the Champions League when Stefano Pioli’s men recorded a 3-1 win over Dinamo Zagreb, who in Week 1 had beaten Chelsea. Goals from Olivier Giroud, Alexis Saelemaekers, and Tommaso Pobega were more than enough for a comfortable victory.

Ominously for Napoli, Milan’s win over Zagreb made it six wins out of their last six at the San Siro – a run in which they have kept four clean sheets – but on a slightly more negative note for Milan, despite winning the title they lost this equivalent fixture 1-0 last season.

AC Milan vs Napoli  Head-to-Head Stats

AC Milan
VS
Napoli
4-2-0 Serie A record 4-2-0
12 / 6 Goals for / Goals against 13 / 4
16.3 Shots per goal 21
53.3 Possession (%) 61.2
13 / 1 Yellow / Red cards 9 / 0
3rd Current league position 1st
W-D-W-D-W-W Serie A form guide W-W-D-D-W-W

Napoli on the Rise

Napoli, like Milan, also performed magnificently in the week when they went to Glasgow to take on Rangers on Matchday 2 and came away with a 3-0 win. Goals from Matteo Politano, Giacomo Raspadori, and Tanguy Ndombele were more than enough to see off a spirited but ineffectual Rangers – a win that took them to the top of Group A with maximum points.

Just three days earlier, they recorded their latest Serie A win but left it late against Spezia – Giacomo Raspadori’s 89th-minute strike taking Napoli to the top of the table.

Spalletti’s Perfect Balance

Luciano Spalletti’s men have struck an almost perfect balance between defense and attack – plenty of goal threat and a defense that has kept six clean sheets in their last nine games, dating back to last season.

While Spalletti has succeeded in keeping together most of the team that finished third last season, the additions of Raspadori, Kim Min-jae and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have made them better. They appear well equipped for a title challenge this time around.

AC Milan vs Napoli Team Lineups and Injuries

Milan Projected Lineup: Maignan, Calabria, Tomori, Kalulu, Hernandez, Bennacer, Tonali, Messias, De Ketelaere, Saelemaekers, Giroud.

Injuries & absences:  Leao, Rebic, Origi, Ibrahimovic.

Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret, Di Lorenzo, Kim, Rrahmani, Rui, Anguissa, Lobotka, Zielinski, Politano, Raspadori, Kvaratskhelia.

Injuries & absences: Osimhen, Demme.

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AC Milan vs Napoli Pick

The stakes are high in the San Siro and, as such, it may be a game where both teams will be keener not to lose rather than to win the game. And with two good defenses, there is value here in betting on the low-scoring draw.

Pick: AC Milan and Napoli to draw (+230)

 

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