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Argentina vs Canada Picks, Predictions, Props & Best Odds for Copa America Semifinal (July 9)

Sascha Paruk

by Sascha Paruk in Soccer News

Updated Jul 9, 2024 · 9:18 AM PDT

Canada defender Alistair Johnston and Argentina defender Nicolas Tagliafico battle for the ball
Jun 20, 2024; Atlanta, GA, USA; Canada defender Alistair Johnston (2) and Argentina defender Nicolas Tagliafico (3) battle for the ball during the second half at Mercedez-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
  • Argentina are big favorites against Canada in the 2024 Copa America semis on Tuesday, July 9
  • Argentina already beat Canada 2-0 in the group stage and have a 9-1-0 record in their last ten matches
  • See the Argentina vs Canada predictions, odds and best props to bet on July 9

Copa America-favorites Argentina (3-1-0) get a favorable draw in the semifinals, facing a Canada team (1-2-1) they already breezed past in the group stage, 2-0.

The Argentina vs Canada rematch is scheduled for Tuesday, July 9, at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey (8:00 pm ET). The winner will face either Colombia or Uruguay in the final.

As with the first match, La Albiceleste are short favorites to win. I’ll discuss the range of odds in more detail below, but the longest odds on an Argentina full-time victory are -285, and Lio Messi and company are -550or shorter to advance to the final on Sunday, July 14.

Argentina vs Canada Predictions & Expert Picks

  • First half under 0.5 (+205 at FanDuel)
  • Under 2.5 goals (-110 at bet365)

Sascha Paruk’s 2024 Euro/Copa America betting record: 35-17-1 (+20.93 units)
All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise.

I am not so bold as to predict a Canada victory, but I actually haven’t loved the way Argentina have played for the majority of this tournament, at least not in the attacking half of the field. Argentina’s second-half performance against Canada was by far their best 45 minutes in the Copa. During their 1-1 draw with Ecuador, they scored on a brilliant set piece during the first half but then allowed Ecuador to control the pace of play in the second half, giving up both a penalty (which Enner Valencia put onto the post) and a last-minute equalizer, which Ecuador were full-value for.

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Canada’s group stage performance was very sound defensively. New coach Jesse Marsch has clearly drilled a new defensive discipline into this group and, while that meant less attacking verve, it also meant his team didn’t concede in five of the six halves they played in the group stage, including a scoreless first half against Argentina in the tournament opener.

The loss of Inter Milan midfielder Tajon Buchanan (broken tibia) is indeed a big loss, but Buchanan was already battling injuries and was only able to come off the bench in Canada’s 1-0 win over Peru and 0-0 draw with Chile.

With speedy Jacob Shaffelburg inserted into the starting lineup for the quarterfinal clash with Venezuela, Canada started the match looking a lot more like the high-scoring group that topped CONCACAF in 2022 World Cup qualifying. They were rewarded for their efforts when Lille’s Jonathan David set up Shaffelburg for the opening goal in the 13th minute. That lead held up until a brutal defensive lapse by center back Moise Bombito and keeper Maxime Crépeau allowed Salomon Rondon to score from about 40 yards out but on the whole it was another solid defensive effort from a Canada team that was simultaneously putting a lot more effort into attack.

YouTube video

I don’t expect Marsch to have his team pressing in the first half as much as they did against Venezuela. The longer Tuesday’s game stays scoreless, the better it is for the Canadians.

Canada actually got the better of a low-even first half the first time these teams met (0.69 xGF to 0.67) and I expect another low-event first 45 on Tuesday night in East Rutherford.

Best Available Argentina vs Canada Odds

Team Moneyline Total To Advance
Argentina -285 (bet365) Over 2.5 (-105) (Caesars) -555 (BetMGM)
 Canada +1100  (FanDuel) Under 2.5 (-110) (bet365) +430 (FanDuel)
Draw +435 (bet365)

Since the odds opened on Saturday after Canada’s penalty win over Venezuela, they have shifted slightly in favor of the Argentines. The longest price on  Argentina to win in 90 minutes was -263, but has moved to -285 roughly ten hours from kickoff. After opening at -110 odds both ways, the over/under on 2.5 goals has shifted slightly towards the under. Bettors can now get over 2.5 at -105 at Caesars, while the over is closer to -115 or -120 at most sportsbooks.

Anyone looking to bet Argentina to advance to the final should head to BetMGM, where La Albiceleste are priced at -555 (1.18 decimal), which is significantly longer than any other book. Argentina to advance is as short as -700 at FanDuel, which not coincidentally has the longest odds on Canada advancing (+430) and winning in regular time (+1100).

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