Champions League Odds Favor Man City at +125 After Reaching Semifinals; Chelsea Underdogs at +400
- Manchester City are Champions League favorites after seeing off Borussia Dortmund in the last eight
- City’s semifinal opponents PSG are second favorites at +300
- Which team represents the best value bet to win the competition?
The Champions League semifinals are set for later this month. Competition favorites Manchester City matchup with PSG, while Chelsea and Real Madrid go head-to-head after overcoming Porto and Liverpool respectively. Manchester City and PSG have been among the favorites throughout the competition, but it’s a bit more surprising to see Real Madrid and Chelsea here.
Chelsea and Real Madrid are the outsiders in Champions League odds. Eyeing up a quadruple, Manchester City are comfortably top of the pile with DraftKings at +125.
City and PSG have not won the Champions League before. Real Madrid are the most successful team in Champions League history, while Chelsea won in dramatic fashion back in 2012.
Champions League Odds
| Team | Odds at DraftKings |
|---|---|
| Manchester City | +125 |
| PSG | +300 |
| Real Madrid | +375 |
| Chelsea | +400 |
Odds as of Apr 15
Experience Is Crucial
Manchester City have famously struggled in the Champions League. This is the first time they have made the semifinals in the Pep Guardiola era. City last reached this stage in 2015-16, falling to Real Madrid 1-0 on aggregate. So much has changed for the club since then, though.
2018: quarterfinals 👋
2019: quarterfinals 👋
2020: quarterfinals 👋Manchester City end their quarterfinal curse under Pep Guardiola 🥺 pic.twitter.com/jhQSR3KlQk
— B/R Football (@brfootball) April 14, 2021
Guardiola wasn’t in charge. Of the starters in the first leg, only Kevin De Bruyne, Sergio Aguero and Fernandinho remain at the club. It’s likely only De Bruyne will start against PSG in this year’s semifinal. Ultimately, this Manchester City squad is very short on Champions League experience. They have fallen at the last eight in each of the last three seasons, and for all their success domestically, the pressure to bring home the Champions League trophy is enormous.
There are similarities with PSG. For all their investment, they had underwhelmed on the biggest stage. That was until last year, of course, when they made it to the final before losing to Bayern Munich. The majority of this PSG squad have fresh memories of the Champions League last four, though they have suffered more than their fair share of disappointments too.
Been There and Done It
Real Madrid are unlike the other three. This is a team that has been there and done it. They fell in the last 16 in each of the last two campaigns, but they won the competition three times in a row before that. From 2011-12 to 2017-18, they made at least the semifinals.
😍 TO THE SEMIS! 😍#HALAMADRID | #UCL pic.twitter.com/aZe9cGiOKA
— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) April 14, 2021
Cristiano Ronaldo and Gareth Bale, two stars of their Champions League wins, are not at the club. Sergio Ramos’ knee injury could keep him out of the semifinal. Real are in transition, but they have retained a spine with unparalleled Champions League experience. Karim Benzema and Luka Modric are still performing at an elite level, as are Casemiro and Toni Kroos. Raphael Varane should return from COVID-19 in time for the first leg – he’s a four-time Champions League winner.
Real Madrid have won their last three semifinals, taking down Liverpool, Atletico Madrid and Manchester City.
Chelsea Back At the Big Time
This is Chelsea’s first appearance in the last four of Europe’s premier club competition since 2013-14. Their last four Champions League efforts have ended in the last 16, though they won the Europa League in 2018-19.
🗣"All my family love him when they watch our games." 🤣
Chelsea boss Thomas Tuchel reveals that his family love watching N'Golo Kante pic.twitter.com/axngzROIN3
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) April 14, 2021
Chelsea’s last semifinal in this competition ended in defeat to Atletico. Like City, though, the squad is unrecognizable. Cesar Azpilicueta is the only remaining player from the second leg matchday squad of that tie.
This is primarily a young Chelsea squad. Big-game experience is limited. Having Thiago Silva, Azpilicueta and N’Golo Kante available will be important for the Blues. Silva featured in the final last season, and while Kante hasn’t been to the latter stages of the Champions League, he was a key player in France’s run to the World Cup in 2018.
Who Makes the Final?
Manchester City have been almost faultless after a difficult start to the season. Still, though, it’s hard to back them at such a short price. Guardiola has disappointed in the Champions League since leaving Barcelona. There’s no question City are the best team in Europe at the moment, but beating this dangerous PSG side over two legs is far from a foregone conclusion.
When Real Madrid reach the UCL semifinals under Zidane:
🏆 2015-16
🏆 2016-17
🏆 2017-18
⏳ 2020-21 pic.twitter.com/DAsCWV5pJN— ESPN FC (@ESPNFC) April 14, 2021
Even if City do make the final, they may well face the unenviable task of Zinedine Zidane’s Real Madrid. Los Blancos have the personnel to absorb City’s pressure, and their experience of high-stakes Champions League matches shouldn’t be underestimated.
Chelsea cannot be written off either given how solid they have looked for most of Thomas Tuchel’s reign. They are rightly underdogs, however, and continue to miss too many chances, which could cost them against Real.
Neymar da Silva Santos Junior.
The most underrated footballer on the planet.
Prove us wrong. pic.twitter.com/BZ563G0z0F
— Goal (@goal) April 14, 2021
After shining against Bayern, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar are going to test Manchester City’s defense more than any other opponent. A PSG and Real Madrid final is a good bet as a +346 double on both teams to progress. Picking between the two in a one-off match would be very difficult, making Real Madrid the best bet to win the competition.
Best bet: Real Madrid (+375)
Sam Cox is a freelance writer and sports junkie, who has spent the past several years immersed in the online gaming industry. He has worked with 888sport, Oddschecker, and Colossus Bets to name a few. Based in the UK, Sam also runs Franchise Sports with his brother.
