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EPL Matchday 38 Odds & Picks: Top Four Comes Down to Final Weekend

Quinn Allen

by Quinn Allen in Soccer News

Jul 24, 2020 · 11:16 AM PDT

EPL Matchday 27
Chelsea's Mason Mount, left, celebrates with his teammate Reece James after scoring his side's opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield stadium in Liverpool, England, Thursday, March 4, 2021. (Phil Noble, Pool via AP)
  • The final Matchday of the 2019/20 Premier League campaign will take place on Sunday
  • All 20 teams will be in action, with all fixtures starting at 11:00 am EST
  • Get the full odds for all ten matches below

After a prolonged delay in the season due to COVID-19, we’re finally at the end of the Premier League campaign after a hectic last month of fixtures. The battle for a top-four finish and a spot in Europe will come down to Matchday 38 for a number of sides, such as Manchester United, Chelsea, and Leicester.

As for the relegation battle, this could be one of the most exciting ones we’ve seen in recent memory, with Aston Villa and Watford both tied with 34 points, while Bournemouth has 31 heading into their last fixture.

Premier League Matchday 38 Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Chelsea -0.5 (-119) -119 Ov 2.5 (-109)
Wolves +0.5 (-101) +285 Un 2.5 (-111)
Draw N/A +265 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Burnley pk,-0.5 (-102) +142 Ov 2.5 (-109)
Brighton pk,+0.5 (-118) +176 Un 2.5 (-111)
Draw N/A +240 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Crystal Palace +1 (-109) +460 Ov 2.5,3 (-101)
Tottenham -1 (-111) -185 Un 2.5,3 (-119)
Draw N/A +310 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Arsenal -0.5 (-110) -110 Ov 2.5,3 (-125)
Watford +0.5 (-110) +245 Un 2.5,3 (+105)
Draw N/A +275 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Total
Everton pk,0.5 (-106) +133 Ov 3 (-108)
Bournemouth pk,+0.5 (-114) +176 Un 3 (-112)
Draw N/A +260 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Manchester City -3 (-110) -1493 Ov 4 (-114)
Norwich City +3 (-110) +1850 Un 4 (-106)
Draw N/A +1150 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Leicester City pk,+0.5 (-109) +196 Ov 2.5 (-111)
Manchester United pk,-0.5 (-111) +127 Un 2.5 (-109)
Draw N/A +230 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
West Ham pk,+0.5 (-111) +182 Ov 2.5,3 (-120)
Aston Villa pk,-0.5 (-109) +135 Un 2.5,3 (+100)
Draw N/A +245 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Newcastle +1,+1.5 (+103) +600 Ov 3 (-118)
Liverpool -1,-1.5 (-123) -256 Un 3 (-102)
Draw N/A +380 N/A
Team Spread Moneyline Odds Total
Southampton pk,-0.5 (-116) +117 Ov 2.5 (-112)
Sheffield United pk,+0.5 (-104) +215 Un 2.5 (-108)
Draw N/A +240 N/A

All odds taken July 24

Pick 1: Chelsea vs Wolves

The Blues head into this clash against Wolverhampton with their European fate at stake. Currently, Frank Lampard’s men are in fourth spot with 63 points. Due to their dreadful goal difference, Manchester United sits ahead of them, despite having the same amount of points. Chelsea desperately needed a result against Liverpool on Wednesday but failed to secure a victory, losing 5-3. Thankfully, Leicester is playing the Red Devils on Sunday, whom they sit one point behind currently.

If the Foxes tie or win against United and the Blues lose, Leicester would slide into to fourth and grab the last Champions League spot because they have a better goal difference than Chelsea. Worst case scenario, Lampard’s side would end up in Europa, but knowing just how important this last fixture is, they will come out looking to grab a victory.

For Wolverhampton, Champions League football is now out of reach. But, they can definitely feature in Europa once again next season with a positive result at Stamford Bridge this weekend. They have won just twice in their last five matches and if they were to lose on Matchday 38 and Tottenham won, Nuno Espirito Santo’s squad would find themselves out of the top six.

This match is extremely important for both sides in regards to Europe. Chelsea had the upper hand in their last meeting before Christmas, burying Wolves 5-2 at the Molineux. However, I believe this is going to be a very close fixture, with the Blues coming out on top by a goal.

Pick: Chelsea -119

Pick 2: West Ham vs Aston Villa

West Ham has played very well as of late, losing just once in their last five appearances. That impressive form has moved them comfortably up the table and out of the relegation zone. Striker Michail Antonio has been a vital reason for their recent success, bagging six goals in his last three matches, including all four goals in a 4-0 routing of Norwich City on Matchday 35.

Aston Villa will head to the London Stadium this Sunday with a fire in their belly as they look to steer clear of relegation. They’ve certainly proved in their last two matches they belong, drawing Everton 1-1 then beating Arsenal on Matchday 37 in a must-win fixture. Currently tied with Watford on 34 points, Dean Smith’s side can secure their spot in the Premier League for next season with a victory against the Hammers.

These two played to a scoreless draw at Villa Park back in September. I believe it’s going to be a low-scoring affair again, but the Lions will come out victorious. After just one season in the top-flight, Villa will be hungry to stay up, putting forward a fantastic performance this Sunday and winning by one goal in a match that doesn’t mean a whole lot for the hosts.

Pick: Aston Villa +135

Pick 3: Leicester City vs Manchester United

This match is arguably the most important of the bunch on Sunday. Leicester have significantly dropped off after sitting in second place earlier in the season. Brendan Rodger’s side is now fighting for their Champions League lives in a crucial last fixture against the Red Devils. Since the restart, the Foxes have won just twice in eight Premier League fixtures. Currently one point behind United, a win this weekend would clinch their spot in Europe’s most prized competition.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s squad has been one of the finest teams in England since football returned, going unbeaten in their last 13 domestic fixtures dating back to January. Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba have found an electric partnership in the middle of the pitch, while Mason Greenwood, Anthony Martial, and Marcus Rashford continue to produce in the final third. Considering United’s form, they certainly deserve a top-four finish. But the job is not yet complete until they beat Leicester this weekend. If they can do so, the Red Devils would finish in third place, even if Chelsea win as well, based on their impressive goal difference.

All signs point to United winning this fixture. Leicester realizes this is their last shot at Champions League football, but the visitors have been just too good lately. I’m giving Man United a two-goal victory on Sunday at the King Power Stadium.

Pick: Manchester United+127

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