Europa League Predictions & Picks for Sep 17 – 3 Best Bets on Thursday
By Juan Pablo Aravena in Soccer News
Published:
- Read my analysis on the top three actionable UEFA Europa League picks for Thursday’s nine-game slate
- My three picks target MLs on high-usage transition offense and situational road value
- All match times are in ET to map your daily UEFA Europa League predictions betting card
Welcome to the second day of Round 1 of the 2026/2027 UEFA Europa League. With the expansive field getting underway, I have a pristine slate to identify mispriced underdogs and heavy favorites among this nine-game slate.
The action kicks off at 12:45 PM ET with intriguing road spots for TSG Hoffenheim and FC Salzburg. The main slate follows at 3:00 PM ET, featuring marquee clubs like Juventus, Crystal Palace, and Celtic looking to establish early playoff positioning.
Best UEFA Europa League Picks and Predictions for Today
Here are my top selections for the slate, generated by SBD’s predictive computer model.
Note: The analysis below reflects the direct outputs and situational data generated by SBD’s AI computer model. These are strictly picks from a computer designed to find mathematical edges.
Besiktas vs Marseille Best Bet: Besiktas (-117 at Polymarket)
The AI model identifies immediate value on the Besiktas Istanbul moneyline at -117 at Polymarket. Besiktas hosts this matchup at Tupras Stadium, giving manager Vincenzo Italiano a favorable environment to establish an early attacking rhythm.
Italiano’s squad has been dominant early in the 2026/27 campaign, picking up victories in nine of their first 11 competitive fixtures. That run includes six Europa League qualifying wins over Midtjylland, Hradec Kralove, and Kauno Zalgiris to punch their ticket into the league phase.
Marseille, meanwhile, arrive in poor form under new manager Bruno Genesio, dropping three straight after their opening-day win and facing a quick turnaround before hosting PSG in Le Classique this weekend.
These two sides have met twice before, both in the 2007/08 UEFA Champions League group stage, and the home team won both fixtures. Marseille took a 2-0 victory in France on Sept. 18, 2007, while Besiktas responded with a 2-1 win in Istanbul on Nov. 28, 2007. That home-team trend aligns directly with the model’s projection.
OFI Crete vs Hoffenheim Best Bet: Hoffenheim ML (-233 at Kalshi)
The AI model locks in the TSG Hoffenheim moneyline at -233. Hoffenheim travels to the 26,240-seat Pagritio in Heraklion for a first-ever meeting with OFI Crete. With zero head-to-head history, the model leans heavily on squad depth, tactical pedigree, and the significant quality gap between the Bundesliga visitors and the Greek hosts to generate this projection.
Manager Christian Ilzer brings a deep squad featuring proven attacking options in Andrej Kramaric, Adam Hlozek, and Tim Lemperle. Hoffenheim will be without midfielder Alexander Prass through injury, but the absence is manageable given the depth across the roster.
OFI Crete secured their league phase berth by dismantling CSKA Sofia 5-0 on aggregate in the qualifying playoffs, but the Greek Cup winners haven’t competed in the group stage of a European competition since 1995/96. Their only prior meeting against German opposition ended in a 1-0 loss to Bayer Leverkusen back in July 1995.
The computer calculates an overwhelming win probability for the German side despite the road environment.
Lillestrom vs Torreense Best Bet: Lillestrom ML (-178 at Kalshi)
The computer projections flag the Lillestrom SK moneyline at -178 as a high-value play. Lillestrom welcomes SCU Torreense to the 12,234-seat Åråsen in Lillestrom for their first H2H encounter, forcing the model to rely on squad composition, venue metrics, and managerial matchups.
Lillestrom are riding a wave of momentum after winning their Europa League qualifying playoff against Egnatia in extra time, capping a run that has produced three consecutive competitive victories heading into this league-phase debut. Manager Hans Erik Odegaard deploys experienced names like defender Ruben Gabrielsen, forward Thomas Lehne Olsen, and forward Fredrik Gulbrandsen to control the tempo in front of a supportive Norwegian home crowd.
Torreense, a Portuguese second-division side, earned their league phase spot by winning last season’s Portuguese Cup but have never played a competitive fixture outside of Portugal. That inexperience on the continental stage is compounded by a rough start to their domestic campaign, where they have managed just one win against three draws and two losses.
The model identifies Lillestrom’s home-field edge, superior European pedigree, and Torreense’s total lack of international match experience as the driving factors behind this pick.
UEFA Europa League Betting Odds for Sep 17
Here is a breakdown of the moneyline, draw, and over/under (total) odds for every matchup on Thursday:
TSG Hoffenheim at OFI Crete
- Moneyline: Hoffenheim (-263) | OFI Crete (+700) | Draw: +375
- Total (2.5): Over (-175) | Under (+138)
FC Salzburg at PFC Levski Sofia
- Moneyline: Salzburg (+125) | PFC Levski Sofia (+210) | Draw: +240
- Total (2.5): Over (-150) | Under (+120)
Olympique Marseille at Besiktas Istanbul
- Moneyline: Marseille (+290) | Besiktas (-125) | Draw: +310
- Total (2.5): Over (-175) | Under (+138)
Ferencvarosi Budapest at Celtic Glasgow
- Moneyline: Ferencvarosi Budapest (+375) | Celtic Glasgow (-138) | Draw: +290
- Total (2.5): Over (-175) | Under (+138)
Lech Poznan at Crystal Palace
- Moneyline: Poznan (+650) | Palace (-250) | Draw: +375
- Total (2.5): Over (-163) | Under (+130)
Union Saint-Gilloise at FC Viktoria Plzen
- Moneyline: Union Saint-Gilloise (+155) | FC Viktoria Plzen (+170) | Draw: +240
- Total (2.5): Over (-125) | Under (+100)
NEC Nijmegen at Juventus
- Moneyline: NEC Nijmegen (+1200) | Juventus (-500) | Draw: +550
- Total (2.5): Over (-225) | Under (+175)
SCU Torreense at Lillestrom SK
- Moneyline: SCU Torreense (+475) | Lillestrom SK (-188) | Draw: +333
- Total (2.5): Over (-163) | Under (+130)
AFC Bournemouth at Real Sociedad
- Moneyline: Bournemouth (+135) | Real Sociedad (+188) | Draw: +250
- Total (2.5): Over (-138) | Under (+110)
The odds presented above are provided by multiple bookmakers. Additional lines and prop markets for today’s Europa League action can also be found across other major sportsbooks including Caesars, BetMGM, and theScore Bet.
Juan Pablo is a sports writer and betting analyst with over 15 years' experience in the industry. He is an expert in European and Latin American soccer, as well as NBA, MLB, NHL, NFL, college sports, and EuroLeague. He was born and raised in Chile and is fluent in Spanish, English, and Portuguese.
