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FC Porto vs Liverpool Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage Matchday 2

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Updated Sep 27, 2021 · 7:14 AM PDT

FC Porto vs Liverpool
Liverpool's Curtis Jones celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's third goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Brentford and Liverpool at the Brentford Community Stadium in London, Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. (AP Photo/Rui Vieira)
  • FC Porto hosts Liverpool in the second round of Champions League group stage play on Tuesday, September 28th at 3:00 pm ET
  • Liverpool is currently atop Group B after a 3-2 win against AC Milan in the first round, while FC Porto sits in second place coming off a scoreless draw against Atletico Madrid
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below

After a two-week hiatus, the Champions League is back again for its second matchday this week. One game that needs to be highlighted is in Group B between FC Porto and Liverpool, on Tuesday afternoon.

These sides have no shortage of familiarity, having played each other in two aggregate knockout ties in recent years. Of those four matches, Liverpool won three and drew one, winning by a couple of big score lines.

Furthermore, this fixture has a few really intriguing storylines; one being Liverpool’s away record in the Champions League. In their past four Champions League campaigns, the Reds have only won 50% of their away matches, losing in 37.5%. Despite this, the two games played at the Estádio do Dragão were both won by Liverpool, by scores of 5-0 and 4-1 respectively.

FC Porto vs Liverpool Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
FC Porto vs Liverpool FCP +0.5 (+115) | LIV -0.5 (-130) FCP +350 | LIV -130 | DRAW +295 Ov 2.5 (-150) | Un 2.5 (+120)

Odds as of Sept 26th at DraftKings

Additionally, the matchup between FC Porto and Liverpool was one that was dominated by Jurgen Klopp’s front three. Of the 11 goals scored by Liverpool in those last four, head-to-head matches, nine were scored by either Mo Salah, Roberto Firmino or Sadio Mane.

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If that does not make Sérgio Conceição sweat enough, Liverpool also has one of their former attackers, Diogo Jota. The Portuguese forward has slotted himself into Liverpool’s starting eleven, and already has three goals to start the season.

However, Jota is not the only player in this match crossing his former stomping grounds. Former Liverpool midfielder, Marko Grujic could play a part for Porto in their midfield, having made two substitution appearances so far this year.

Klopp’s Champions League Rotation

Regardless, this game cannot be judged at face value by neutrals. Liverpool has a great squad, that has performed well against Porto in the past. But, they are coming off a grueling 3-3 draw against Brentford, and have to worry about Manchester City at the weekend. In turn, expect Klopp to rotate this team as much as he can.

In Liverpool’s first Champions League match against AC Milan, Klopp also used this strategy. Not only did he start Divock Origi and Naby Keita, but he also used James Milner and Curtis Jones off of the bench. This did not necessarily work perfectly, as Liverpool had to claw back from a 2-1 deficit, to eventually win 3-2. Nonetheless, Liverpool still retained the three points, while resting some key players.

FC Porto vs Liverpool Domestic Statistics

FC Porto
VS
Liverpool
2.29 Goals per game 2.5
0.57 Goals conceded per game 0.66
63.5% Possession % 60.6%
14.9 Shots per game 23.5

As a result, expect more rotation on Tuesday’s game. After a tumultuous defensive performance against Brentford, do not be surprised to see both Joe Gomez and Kostas Tsimikas make their way into the team. Chancel Mbemba will miss this game in defense for Porto due to suspension, and Tsimikas’s delivery from the wing will put a lot of pressure on Pepe to win aerial duels in the middle.

The midfield could also change for Liverpool, as Keita and Thiago will be out due to injury. After his thunderbolt goal this weekend, Curtis Jones could slot in the midfield as a quality, attacking threat. Finally, Roberto Firmino is back fit for the Reds and provides another option upfront.

Both of These Sides Undefeated in all Competitions

Another detail to note about this fixture is that neither of these sides have lost yet this year. These teams are resilient and will find ways to stay in matches, even when they are not playing the best football.

Porto put that theory on display against Atletico Madrid, in a game where they were second-best. They had to conform to Diego Simeone’s tactics but managed to stay in the game, and ultimately won a very valuable point away from home.

In a game where Liverpool could be using more bench depth, Porto could capitalize using the likes of Luis Diaz and Mehdi Taremi.

FC Porto vs Liverpool Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the Liverpool moneyline with odds of -130. It would be naïve to think Porto cannot get anything out of this game. However, considering Liverpool’s record away at Porto, and their current form it is hard to not favor them to win in the end.

Pick: Liverpool moneyline (-130)

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