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2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup: Alex Morgan Favored to Win Golden Boot

Ryan Metivier

by Ryan Metivier in Soccer News

Updated Apr 2, 2020 · 9:22 AM PDT

Alex Morgan
Alex Morgan is set to lead the Americans' attack when the USWNT look to defend their WWC title in France this summer. Photo by Jamie Smed (Flickr).
  • Team USA’s Alex Morgan is the +600 favorite to win the 2019 Women’s World Cup Golden Boot Award as top goalscorer
  • Australia’s Sam Kerr is a close second at odds of +650
  • Five of the top ten favorites come from either USA or France

The 2019 Women’s World Cup in France is quickly approaching on Friday, June 7, 2019. Team USA are favorites to lift the trophy, and American striker Alex Morgan is also favored to win the Women’s World Cup Top Goalscorer Award.

Like any tournament, when betting a player to win an end-of-tournament award, it’s important to plot out how far you think the teams your players are on will progress.

2019 Women’s World Cup Odds

Player Team Women’s World Cup Top Scorer Odds
Alex Morgan USA +600
Sam Kerr AUS +650
Eugenie Le Sommer FRA +700
Valerie Gauvin FRA +800
Carli Lloyd USA +900
Vivianne Miedema NETH +900
Alexandra Popp GER +1000
Megan Rapinoe USA +1000
Beatriz BRA +1200
Nikita Parris ENG +1200
Beth Mead ENG +1400
Ellen White ENG +1400
Kadidiatou Diani FRA +1400
Lieke Martens NETH +1400
Jennifer Hermoso ESP +1600

Odds taken May 30, 2019. 

Likely one of the best-known women’s soccer players in the world, Alex Morgan, is the oddsmakers’ choice for top goalscorer this summer. Morgan has odds of +600 to win the award, while the USWNT are +300 favorites to win the tournament outright.

Thus, Morgan has to be strongly considered to win the Golden Boot. Team USA are massive -1000 favorites to win Group F. In Chile and Thailand, they’ll play two group stage matches against teams ranked 34th and 39th respectively.

In CONCACAF qualifying, USA blew through weaker opposition going 5-0-0, with a 26-0 goal-difference. In the final group stage, Morgan scored four goals to tie with Canada’s Jordyn Huitema and Adriana Leon as leading scorers. Morgan added three more over the semis and finals to finish qualifying with seven goals, one of which was a penalty.

If she maintains penalty kick duties that will go a long way to winning top goalscorer.

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Morgan’s teammates, Tobin Heath (4 goals), Carli Lloyd (3), and Megan Rapinoe (3), were also strong through qualifying. Lloyd and Rapinoe are among the top eight favorites, while Heath is tied in 15th odds of +1600.

Les Bleus Will Score Plenty

France didn’t need to qualify as hosts of the tournament, but have been on a tear in warm-up competitions. They’ve lost just once, with a 12-0-1 record in their past 13 matches. They’ve outscored opponents 46-4. Their Group A opponents include Norway, South Korea and Nigeria.

France have lost just once, with a 12-0-1 record in their past 13 matches. They’ve outscored opponents 46-4.

France defeated Nigeria 8-0 in April of last year in a friendly match, which saw Valerie Gauvin score a hat-trick, as well as Eugenie Le Sommer score once.

In 2017 they drew Norway 1-1 at home in a friendly. During the 2015 World Cup they defeated Korea 3-0 in the round of 16.

Though Le Sommer has the shortest odds among French players, I believe Valerie Gauvin of Montpellier would be your best bet. In six friendlies in 2019, she’s tallied four goals. She’s also lined up as the lone striker in a 4-2-3-1 formation in each of their past four matches.

She, or Kadidiatou Diani, who has five goals in 2019, would offer more betting value for top goalscorer.

Don’t Discount Kerr

Australia have never progressed past the quarterfinals, so the Matildas may be seen as an outsider to make a deep run. However, they are seventh-favorites at odds of +1400.

But if the Aussies make a run, it will no doubt have much to do with Kerr. The 25-year-old leads the NWSL with six goals in six matches this year with the Chicago Red Stars. She also plays in Australia’s W-League.

Australia’s Sam Kerr is the all-time leading scorer in both the NWSL and W-League.

No matter the league, she’s hit double-digit goals in each of the past five seasons. Last year she tallied 16 goals in 20 matches for Chicago. That again led the league. In fact, she is the all-time leading scorer in both the NWSL and W-League..

Get to know 2018’s Young Australian of the Year and ESPN’s Footballer of the Year below.

YouTube video

Can an Outsider Win the Golden Boot?

For all the scoring Germany did throughout qualifying (they had 38 goals in eight matches), only Alexandra Popp comes in within the top 15 betting favorites. The next German listed is Lea Schüller at odds of +2000. Each player had six goals during Germany’s qualifying campaign.

Schüller was the Frauen Bundesliga’s third top scorer with 14 goals this season, while Popp had 13.

Both Alexandra Popp and Lea Schüller had six goals during Germany’s qualifying campaign.

The Germans have rotated their lineup in 2019’s friendlies, with each getting a chance to play as a lone striker. Over three matches this year they both have scored once.

Another team with high expectations is England. Three of their players are offered at odds within the top 12 favorites. Each of Nikita Parris, Beth Mead and Ellen White play in the England Women’s Super League.

Past WWC Golden Boot Winners

Year Player Team Goals
2015 Célia Šašić Germany 6
2011 Homare Sawa Japan 5
2007 Marta Brazil 7
2003 Birgit Prinz Germany 7
1999 Sun Wen/Sissi China/Brazil 7
1995 Ann Kristin Aarønes Norway 6
1991 Michelle Akers USA 10

2015’s Golden Boot winner Célia Šašić has since retired, though runner-up Carli Lloyd is still considered a strong contender from USA. She actually tied Šašić with six goals in 2015 but lost on the tie-breaker. Anja Mittag of Germany, was 2015’s third place finisher but did not make the squad this time around.

Best Bets for Women’s World Cup Top Goalscorer

Morgan scored 18 goals in 19 matches in 2018. It earned her USWNT Player of the Year honors. In April she scored her 100th international goal with USA. Odds of +600 for the best player on the best team isn’t too bad. The only concern would be the potential for a possible upset loss to France in the quarterfinals.

In which case I see Gauvin as the best value from the French. If you bet both, at least one should still be playing in the semifinal round.

If you want to avoid that potential matchup entirely, make a bet on Parris. If England can top Group D, they should be favorites in the following two rounds of the knockout.

And finally, because I feel Netherlands could make some noise and would be playing on the opposite side of the bracket from each of the above mentioned three teams should they finish first or second in Group E, let’s consider a couple women from Le Oranje.

YouTube video

Vivianne Miedema (+900) and Lieke Martens (+1400) are worth a look. Miedema was the England Super League’s leading scorer with 22 for Arsenal this season. She had five goals during Netherlands’ group stage qualifying and two more in the playoff round finals.

Martens had 11 goals for Barcelona this season and was named Best Player of the Tournament with the Golden Ball Award in the 2017 European Championships.

In six 2019 matches, Miedema has four goals and Martens two.

Best Bets: Alex Morgan, Valerie Gauvin, Nikita Parris, Vivianne Miedema

Additional 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup Coverage

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