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Inter Milan vs Juventus Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Serie A Week 27 Picks

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

Mar 18, 2023 · 1:08 PM PDT

Roma vs Inter Milan
Inter Milan's Edin Dzeko left, celebrates after scoring his side's first goal with his teammate Lautaro Martinez during the Champions League, Group D soccer match between Inter Milan and Shakhtar Donetsk at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Wednesday, Nov. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Inter Milan hosts Juventus on Matchday 27 in the Serie A on Sunday, March 19th at 3:45 pm ET
  • The Old Lady won the reverse fixture by a score of 2-0 thanks to goals from Adrien Rabiot and Nicolo Fagioli
  • Get our Inter Milan vs Juventus prediction and odds below

Inter Milan vs Juventus is the match to keep your eye on in Serie A this weekend. The two Italian giants square off in what could be a massive shakeup towards the top of the table. Currently Inter Milan hold second place, trailing Napoli by a daunting tally of 18 points. Nonetheless, their position is not a comfortable one. In fact, Lazio, AC Milan and Roma are all within three points of the Nerazzurri, which means a loss could push them closer to a spot outside of Champions League contention.

On the other hand, Juventus sit back in seventh place, which is more or less a result of their 15-point deduction earlier this year. Massimiliano Allegri’s side have put together a strong second half, going 9-1-1 in their last eleven across all competitions. While they sit seven points back of Atalanta in sixth place, a win would keep them going in the right direction with 12 games remaining on the schedule.

Inter Milan vs Juventus Odds

Matchup Moneyline Odds
Inter Milan +100
Juventus +275
Draw +230

Overall, Inter Milan are the favorites with even moneyline odds, which equates to a 50% implied win probability. This is quite interesting considering the Nerazzurri have only won once in their last four matches. Two of those matches were losses at the hands of Bologna and Spezia, who respectively hold ninth and seventeenth place in the Serie A table.

Inter Milan are also distant second-favorites to win the Scudetto at +4000 in the Serie A odds. Conversely, Juventus have +275 moneyline odds, which is fair considering their mediocre 6-2-4 away record in Italy this season.


Odds as of  March 18th from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Inter Milan vs Juventus Over/Under

Furthermore, the total goal tally is going to skew towards the under in this Serie A matchup. The under on 2.5 total goals sits at a juicy -140, while the reverse option has odds of +115. In their last twenty combined matches across all competitions, the under on this total has hit 65% of the time, which is more than the 58.3% implied win probability that -140 odds offer. Regardless, that is a price I would not recommend paying.

Inter Milan vs Juventus Props – Both Teams Won’t Score

Instead of a play on the total, look towards fading the both teams to score market. Betting against both teams to score offers odds of -110, which has great value. In the same set of combined matches, this play has hit 70% of the time, also hitting in two of their last three head-to-head contests. This bet hit in another Juventus match just a couple of weeks ago, and we will keep riding it until their defense shows any signs of leakage.

Inter Milan vs Juventus Projected Lineups and Injuries

Inter Milan Projected Lineup: Onana, Dimarco, De Vrij, Acerbi, Darmian, Dumfries, Mkhitaryan, Calhanoglu, Barella, Dzeko, Martinez

Major Injuries & Absences: Skriniar, Gosens, Bastoni, Dalbert

Juventus Projected Lineup: Szczesny, Kostic, Danilo, Bremer, Rugani, Cuadrado, Rabiot, Locatelli, Fagioli, Milik, Vlahovic

Major Injuries & Absences: Jorge, Sandro, Pogba, Bonucci, Kean

Allegri & Company Are Capable of a Special Victory

With context of their deduction, Juventus realistically have 53 points this season, which is good enough for a three point advantage on Inter Milan. They are labeled as the underdogs coming into the San Siro, despite losing just three times in their last twenty matches. In reality, they have one of the best defenses in Italy with an attack that is kicking on at the perfect time, scoring 2.3 goals on average, in their last seven.

Inter Milan vs Juventus Statistics

Inter Milan
1.81 Goals per game 1.69
1.77 Expected goals per game 1.48
1.15 Goals allowed per game 0.85
0.91 Expected goals allowed per game 1.06
55.5% Possession % 49.0%
24.6% Clean Sheet % 57.7%
16.3 Shots per game 14.2
D-L-W-L-W Recent Form Guide (All Comps) W-W-W-L-W

Stats in the table from 2022/23 Serie A play.

Moreover, Inter Milan will be without three of their key defenders in Milan Skriniar, Alessandro Bastoni and Robin Gosens. These injuries turn their back five into a frankly mediocre defense that Dusan Vlahovic and the Juventus wingers should be easily able to exploit. While I might not be fully invested in the Juventus moneyline, a play on their draw no bet at +170 still offers tremendous value with less risk.

Inter Milan vs Juventus Prediction

All in all, I will ride with the Juventus draw no bet and no on both teams to score, which gives me some sort of relief should Juventus come out with a sluggish performance.

Inter Milan vs Juventus Picks: Juventus DNB (+170), No on BTTS (-110)



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