Jamaica vs Mexico Odds & Prediction – Gold Cup Semifinals

• It’s Jamaica vs Mexico in the CONCACAF semifinal on Wednesday, July 12
• Mexico start as odds-on favorites against Jamaica in their ninth successive semifinal
• Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Jamaica vs Mexico in the CONCACAF Gold Cup semifinal on Wednesday, July 12, with kick-off in the Allegiant Stadium in La Vegas at 10:00 pm ET.

It’s nine successive Gold Cup semifinals for Mexico after their 2-0 win over Costa Rica in the last eight, while the Reggae Boyz’ narrow 1-0 win over Guatemala took them through to their sixth CONCACAF Gold Cup semi.

We preview our Jamaica vs Mexico picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Jamaica vs Mexico Odds

Mexico are the bookmakers’ -160 odds-on favorites with an implied win probability of 62%, while Jamaica are listed at a more tempting +500, implied at just 17%. The draw in 90 minutes is also well priced at +285 in the Mexico vs Costa Rica odds and is implied at 26%.

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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on July 12.

Jamaica vs Mexico Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals, the bookies have listed the over at +120 and the under at a less appealing -150, with a tight, low-scoring game expected.

Jamaica vs Mexico Preview

The Jamaicans were expected to make light work of Guatemala in the quarterfinal but in the end, managed to scrape a narrow 1-0 win. Against the well-organized and stubborn Guatemalans, the Reggae Boyz failed to dominate and were grateful for an Amari’i Bell goal on 51 minutes to get the job done.

It was a win that took the Jamaicans to their fourth Gold Cup semifinal in the last five tournaments  – an impressive record. Also impressive is that the Reggae Boyz have opened the scoring in every game; something they desperately need to do again against Mexico as their stats show them not to have lost a Gold Cup game since 2009 after scoring first.

CONCACAF selected three of our players in their Best XI of the Quarterfinals! 🔥
.#ReggaeBoyz #GoldCup #ThisIsOurs #JFF_Football pic.twitter.com/AOkJ3rvdxp

— Official J.F.F (@jff_football) July 10, 2023

No Wins Over El Tri Since 2017

However, Jamaica’s recent record against Mexico is lukewarm as we have to go back six years to find the last time they triumphed over El Tri – in a 2017-friendly – but they have drawn their last two; the most recent coming in March of this year when they drew 2-2 in the Azteca Stadium in a Nations League qualifier.

Mexico Finding a Way

Despite some recent criticism of the Mexican team and continued uncertainty around the position of head coach – Jaime Lozano is currently doing the job on an interim basis – they have still been finding ways to get the results they need.

Part of the criticism came after they lost to Qatar in this tournament, but it should be noted that loss came in game three of the group stages by which point they had already qualified for the knockout phase. When it has counted they have stood tall, as they did at the weekend when beating Costa Rica 2-0 in what looked a tricky quarterfinal.

We meet again, Vegas! 👋🏼🎰⚽️#MéxicoJuega #GoldCup pic.twitter.com/eeFOdAuCuI

— Mexican National Team (@miseleccionmxEN) July 11, 2023

First Goal Is Crucial

As mentioned earlier, the key to this match could well be who scores first, especially given Jamaica’s good record in that regard, but Lozano will be focusing his players’ attention on their own recent good record against the Reggae Boyz.

In their two most recent matchups – both in the CONCACAF Nations League – Mexico had to come from behind to earn a draw on each occasion.

Jamaica vs Mexico Team Lineups and Injuries

Jamaica Projected Lineup: Blake, Lembikisa, Lowe, Bernard, Bell, Decordova-Reid, Latibeaudiere, Johnson, Gray, Bailey, Antonio.

Injuries & absences: None.

Mexico Projected Lineup: Ochoa, Sanchez (J), Montes, Vasquez, Gallardo, Alvarez, Antuna, Romo, Gimenez, Pineda, Martin.

Injuries & absences: None.

Jamaica vs Mexico Head-to-Head Stats

Jamaica vs Mexico Prediction

This one looks like being closer than the odds suggest. The last two games between these two have been drawn and they still look to be well-matched, especially with the increased EPL presence in the Reggae Boyz’ ranks.

While the Mexicans’ extra quality may see them eventually sneak through, there is definite value here in the circa 3/1 on offer for the draw.

Jamaica vs Mexico Picks: The draw (+285)