- Lionel Messi has the most goals in this year’s Champions League tournament
- Can Messi continue his success against English opponents?
- Does any other player offer betting value as the tournament enters the quarterfinals?
Heading into the Champions League quarterfinals, Barcelona’s Lionel Messi has eight goals in the tournament and is the odds-on favorite at -200 to finish as the top goalscorer.
Champions League 2019 Top Goalscorer Odds
|Player||Goals||Odds at Bovada|
*Odds taken on 03/18/19
With two goals in Barcelona’s 5-1 leg two win over Lyon in the Round of 16, Messi brought his goal total to eight during the competition.
That Champions League performance carried over to La Liga, as Messi followed up with a hat trick on Sunday against Real Betis. He leads the Spanish league with 29 goals.
Top goal involvement in Champions League history! pic.twitter.com/521zkWXfmB
— BetGOAT (@BetGoatUK) March 14, 2019
Long Odds On Tadić and Marega
Though Dušan Tadić of Ajax and Moussa Marega of Porto are both the closest players to Messi in the scoring race, neither are expected to catch the Argentine.
Their odds of +2000 and +2500 respectively are reflective of each of their team’s even longer odds of winning the Champions League. Both Ajax (+4000) and Porto (+10000) are the biggest underdogs to win the tournament.
The latest Goals of the Week compilation belongs to Dusan Tadic and Ajax. 👏
— DAZN CA (@DAZN_CA) March 11, 2019
Are Kane or Ronaldo in the Running?
Harry Kane may have five goals, but it seems unlikely he’ll be duplicating his Golden Boot performance from last summer’s World Cup. Spurs face title favorites Man City and are heavy underdogs to advance. Tottenham already lost at home to City once this season and have failed to beat City in any of the past five encounters. Four of those matches ended in defeat.
Cristiano Ronaldo has been charged with improper conduct after mimicking Diego Simeone’s celebration against Atlético Madrid last week and could miss the Champions League game(s) against Ajax due to suspension.pic.twitter.com/bzYjFNzxaO
— AjaxTimes (@ajaxtimes) March 18, 2019
Though Ronaldo brought Juve back from what looked like certain elimination last round, his controversial goal celebration has him in hot water. The gesture has the potential to have him suspended for one or both of the quarterfinal matches.
And while his hat trick last game was impressive, he’d only scored once in the Champions League prior.
Messi Dominates English Opponents
There’s little left to say about Messi’s goal scoring exploits. But when it comes to playing English opponents his stats become even more impressive. Playing English teams in the Champions League is something that seems to bring out the best in him.
Messi has scored 22 Champions League goals against English sides. No one else even comes close.
🏆🏴 Player with the most Champions League goals against English Teams…
– Messi: 22
– Ronaldo: 12
– Muller: 9
– Eto'o: 8
– Cavani: 8 pic.twitter.com/2NWNbH3tzj
— The Sportsman Stats (@SportsmanStats) March 15, 2019
With the semi-finals schedule already laid out, if you look at the draw, there is a very real possibility Messi and Barcelona could face an English opponent in each of the next three rounds should they make the final. Barcelona drew Premier League side Manchester United in the quarterfinals. They are currently decent-sized favorties to advance at Bovada with odds of -195.
There is a very real possibility Messi and Barcelona could face an English opponent in each of the next three rounds.
On the same side of the draw Liverpool will face Porto, with Liverpool heavy favorites to move on at odds of -475.
On the other side of the draw, there is a 100% chance of one EPL team making the semis with Tottenham and Manchester City matching up in one quarterfinal. With City owning the shortest average odds to win the Champions League, barring upsets, Messi could be seeing plenty of English opponents in the coming months.
Pep Guardiola on Sergio Aguero:
"I asked him: ‘Please train a little bit in this week off, don't drop your physical condition’ because now he is in incredible top form… Sergio is exceptional. Now he is in that moment that only the greatest strikers have." pic.twitter.com/mZfO5NK5l5
— Superbia Proelia (@SuperbiaProeIia) March 17, 2019
When looking at best bets it’s hard not to look past the favorites at this point of the competition. Only five matches at most are left for each player. There’s no reason to think Messi won’t continue scoring and he already has a sizeable lead over the field.
At +800 Sergio Agüero and his five goals could be worth a bet. He’s in incredible form right now for Man City.
At +800 though, Sergio Agüero and his five goals could be worth a bet. He’s in incredible form right now for Man City and has 15 goals in 16 games for the Cityzens in 2019. He’s also scored in each of the last four Champions League games he’s played, having scored all five of his goals during that period.
Best Bet: Messi -200
Value Bet: Agüero +800
Let's have fun and keep it civil.