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Man City & Liverpool Champions League Favorites Ahead of Round of 16; Real Madrid Shortens to 14-1

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Mar 27, 2020 · 10:54 AM PDT

We're into the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League, and the betting lines have remained consistent. Read the preview to find out if laying a wager on Manchester City or Liverpool is still the way to go.
  • It’s the UEFA Champions League Round of 16, with Liverpool & Man City still leading the betting
  • Real Madrid has shortened from +2000 to +1533 and are in the mix
  • We’ll look at the movers and shakers in the market and see where the value is

The knockout stages of the Champions League begin next week – on Tuesday, Feb. 18 and Wednesday, Feb. 19 – so we are going to take a look at how the teams are shaping up and how their odds to win the trophy have altered, if, at all, since the draw was made in mid-December.

It goes without saying that Manchester City and Liverpool lead the Champions League odds but there have been a few interesting movements in the market. We’ll take a look.

UEFA Champions League Odds

Team Odds
Manchester City +375
Liverpool +400
Barcelona +550
Bayern Munich +700
PSG +700
Juventus +900
Real Madrid +1400
Tottenham +2200
Atletico Madrid +2800
Chelsea +3300
RB Leipzig +4000
Borussia Dortmund +5000
Napoli +6600
Valencia +6600
Atalanta +8000
Lyon +16000

Odds taken on Feb. 14.

Klopp’s Men on the March

Liverpool’s imperious march to the English Premier League title shows no sign of abating but neither does their quest for more cup silverware, in both the FA Cup and the Champions League. Even when playing a weakened team in the FA Cup, Jurgen Klopp’s men march on, so my theory that the club’s Holy Grail – the English league title – would be prioritized at the expense of every other competition no longer looks valid. They simply look like winning every single game they play.

The Reds certainly look likely to dismiss Atletico Madrid with some ease in the Round of 16, with their odds of progressing having shortened from -270  to -350. On the basis of the Spanish team falling out of touch with Barca and Real Madrid in the La Liga title race, this looks reasonable. Klopp’s men are in the top two favorites for a reason.

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Last Champions League Chance for City?

While Liverpool’s Holy Grail this season is the EPL title, for Man City it very much remains the Champions League, and even more so now following the bombshell news that City have been banned from the competition for seasons 2020/21 and 2021/22 for flouting the Financial Fair Play rules. The club will appeal the decision but if unsuccessful, this season will be City’s best and possibly only chance of winning the competition.

With City’s owner Sheik Mansour demanding a Champions League trophy as a return on his massive investment, this has to be Pep Guardiola’s focus, especially as they are 22 points behind Liverpool in the EPL title race. For Pep, this has a do-or-die feel about it, as with no European soccer there will be massive changes upcoming at the club both on and off the field. The pressure is huge and I’m not certain this will be a positive.

Real the Big Movers in the Market

The big movers in the market, and with good reason, are Real Madrid, who average out at +1533 after starting out at +2000 . We all know about the quality they have in the squad but they have had an inconsistent season up until now. Not any more. Los Blancos have now won five on the spin and are edging ahead of Barca in La Liga title race. Their Galacticos are starting to find top gear, and they look the biggest threat to the two English clubs. The +1400 odds looks like great value as does the +155 to beat City over two legs in the Round of 16, in what promise to be two massive nights.

Barca and Bayern Munich can never be ignored. Both have a great history in this competition, currently have quality aplenty at their disposal, but both have tricky Round of 16 ties to negotiate – Bayern against Chelsea and Barcelona vs Napoli.

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Can the X-Factor Make the Difference?

Barca have been fairly stagnant in the market and there’s been little to suggest they have enough to go all the way this season, with the exception of Barca having the X-factor – Lionel Messi. There has been much speculation around whether this is Messi’s last season at the Camp Nou and if it is, he’ll be determined to depart on a high. Definitely one to watch.

Bayern, for their part, have come in from an initial +1200 now down to +700, much of it down to the scintillating goalscoring form of Robert Lewandowski.

PSG are in a similar boat to Man City. They too have been accused of playing fast and loose with FFP rules and are also funded by mega-rich organizations from the Middle East and so, while no sanctions have been applied, they’ll be nervous and keen to do well in this season’s competition for obvious reasons. Their biggest problem, as ever, is a lack of challenge on the domestic front.

Can PSG Step Up?

The Parisiens will again win Ligue 1 with ease but what this doesn’t do is gear them up for the UCL when the level goes up several notches. This makes their Round of 16 tie with BvB a challenge and the value here is very much with the +220 for the Germans to progress.

The other team in the mix is Juventus who, like Bayern and Barca, has a rich history in this tournament. They too have a superstar in their ranks, and any team that includes Cristiano Ronaldo has a puncher’s chance of going all the way. Juve also has a defense that is the envy of most, so they can never be ignored especially as, in theory, they have the easiest route through to the last eight via a tie with Lyon. At +900, there are far worse bets.

Pick: Real Madrid to win the Champions League (+1400)

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