Marseille vs Lazio Odds & Prediction – Europa League Group Stage Matchday 4
- Marseille host Lazio in Matchday 4 of the Europa League on Thursday, November 4th, at 4:00 pm EST
- While Galatasaray sit atop Group E, Lazio and Marseille sit in second and third place on four and three points, respectively
- Get the odds, our analysis and betting prediction below
The Europa League enters its fourth round of group play this week, as Marseille host Lazio on Thursday evening in France.
The match is paramount to the standings of Group E, as Marseille and Lazio are currently only separated by a mere point. Galatasaray has a three-point lead atop the table, which means they are the favorites for automatic advancement into the knockout rounds.
With the new Europa League format, the second-place team in every group advances to a playoff for a chance to play against a third-place Champions League side. The winner then advances to the official knockout rounds of the Europa League. Lokomotiv Moscow do not look like worthy competitors, so Lazio and Marseille are the two teams battling it out for this spot, making this game all the more special.
Marseille vs Lazio Odds
| Matchup | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille vs Lazio | MAR -0.5 (+130) | LAZ +0.5 (-145) | MAR +125 | LAZ +205 | DRAW +255 | Ov 2.5 (-110) | Un 2.5 (-110) |
Odds as of Nov 2nd at DraftKings
A European Night at the Stade Velodrome
Firstly, this match between Marseille and Lazio will be played at the Stade Velodrome in France. In the discussion of classic grounds, this stadium has to be at the top of anybody’s list. Now, why does it matter?
It matters because Marseille’s raucous fans give them an extreme home advantage. They have already been involved in several incidents this year, including the harassment of Lionel Messi in Le Classique just over a week ago.
A Marseille fan looks to make a challenge on Lionel Messi after getting onto the pitch. (📷@NandoChachalana) pic.twitter.com/qbOcsIPlIO
— Get French Football News (@GFFN) October 24, 2021
Furthermore, Marseille do not lose very often at home. In their seven home games this season, they only lost one match, at the hands of Lens in Ligue 1. They also managed three wins and three draws. so far, proving the difficulty of traveling to the Velodrome. However, this will only be their second European match there this season, so it will be interesting to see how their fans turn up against Lazio.
The Reverse Fixture on 10/21
Similar to the Champions League, the Europa League uses a snake format in the group stages. This means that Marseille and Lazio just played two weeks ago.
In that reverse fixture, the two teams tied 0-0, which marked Marseille’s second consecutive scoreless draw in Group E play. Jorge Sampaoli’s side were the better team on the day, controlling 58% of possession and creating 14 shots. Despite earning three yellow cards in the second half, Marseille’s defense was able to keep a valuable clean sheet away from home.
Marseille vs Lazio Europa League Statistics
| 0.33 | Goals per game | 0.66 |
| 0.33 | Goals conceded per game | 0.33 |
| 65.0% | Possession % | 49.4% |
| 89.8% | Passing Accuracy % | 87.0% |
| 14.7 | Shots per game | 14.7 |
Ciro Immobile had the closest attempt in the match as the Italian striker struck the post midway through the second half. William Saliba and Pau Gomez kept things clean otherwise and were brilliant in defense for Marseille. They will need to put in another big performance on Thursday for Les Phocéens to come away with three points.
William Saliba ⛔️ pic.twitter.com/gMvrBiS0Qw
— 433 (@433) October 25, 2021
Lazio’s Mixed Form Under Mauricio Sarri
When Sarri left Juventus this past summer to come to Lazio, many Romans were optimistic of the direction of the club. However, 11 games into their Serie A campaign and halfway through the Europa League group stages, it is evident not much has changed. Lazio are in sixth place in Italy and looks unlikely to challenge Galatasaray for bragging rights in Group E.
Nonetheless, they do have some good talent, it is now about Sarri extracting the best out of them. For example, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is a top-class midfielder, and Pedro, Luis Alberto and Felipe Anderson are experienced attackers. To top it off, you have Ciro Immobile as your number nine, a player that is a wonderfully prolific goal scorer.
👑 𝐊𝐈𝐍𝐆 𝐂𝐈𝐑𝐎 𝐈𝐒 𝐍𝐎𝐖 𝐓𝐇𝐄 𝐀𝐋𝐋 𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄 𝐒.𝐒. 𝐋𝐀𝐙𝐈𝐎 𝐆𝐎𝐀𝐋𝐒𝐂𝐎𝐑𝐄𝐑 👑
1️⃣ Ciro Immobile 159 ⚽️
1️⃣ Silvio Piola 159 ⚽️ pic.twitter.com/b1YPFK77LV— S.S.Lazio (@OfficialSSLazio) October 30, 2021
In turn, how do you only win two games out of your last six, losing to teams like Bologna and Verona along the way? They cannot put together successive good performances and according to their current pattern of loss-win-draw, they are due for a loss away from home.
Marseille vs Lazio Best Bet
Finally, the best bet in this match is the Marseille moneyline with odds of +125. These odds have great value and ultimately it comes down to a massive home advantage, paired with better overall form. Marseille’s defense has held up well lately and I favor Dimitri Payet to score and give them the three points they ever so desperately need to keep their Europa League hopes alive.
Pick: Marseille moneyline (+125)
Josh Ricker is a freelance sports journalist, currently attending the University of Southern Maine (Bachelor of Science in Sports Management and Marketing). He has recently interned with the AA Portland Sea Dogs, and his work has been featured on Fansided, as well as now here on SBD.
