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Matchday 8 Euro 2020 Qualifying Best Bets: Tuesday, October 15, 2019

John Dillon

by John Dillon in Soccer News

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 1:28 PM PDT

John Egan attempts a header at goal for the Republic of Ireland
Republic of Ireland defender John Egan (right) was close with this header in the goalless draw against Georgia on Saturday and will be hoping to seal qualification for the Euro 2020 finals in Switzerland on Tuesday. Photo from @Republic of Ireland Official(Twitter).
  • Malta could promise hope for a win against the odds in Faroe Islands
  • Ireland victory in Switzerland will book finals place but they have been level in three of  six ties
  • Norway are the draw specialists with four as they head to Romania

Qualifying for the European Championships has hit the stage when most of the smaller nations have to accept the familiar fact that they won’t be going to the tournament.

Neither the Faroe Islands nor Malta can finish in the top two in Group F.

However, such meetings of the minnows can offer good opportunities for value. Oddsmakers’ price of +370 for a Maltese victory in the Faroes on Tuesday offers one such opening on October 15, at Torsvollur Stadium, Torshaven, at 2:45 pm EST.

Euro 2020 Group F Faroe Islands vs Malta Odds

Team Spread Money Line Total
Faroe Islands -½, -1 +103 -132 Ov2 -101
Malta +½,+1 -123 +370 Un2 -119
Draw N/A +235 N/A

*All odds taken at 2019/10/ 14

The Faroes are bottom of the group without a point after seven defeats. They have a goal difference of -20.

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Maltese Beat Faroes in March

Malta are one place above with three points, having beaten the Faroes at home 2-1 in the opening game in March. It was their first competitive home win in 13 years. Their goal difference now is -15.

The promising odds on a Maltese victory are influenced by the fact that they lost 3-1 in the Faroes in September 2018 in a European Nations League tie and also lost on two prior visits.

But that is what creates the interest here – the price, with the knowledge that Malta have already beaten these opponents in this Euro 2020 group.

The Faroes have lost all four home ties so far in the group while conceding 13 goals. All four games have been against more prominent nations, though.

Spain won 4-1 there in June while Norway claimed a 2-0 victory three days later.

Sweden won 4-0 in September while Romania triumphed by 3-0 last Saturday.

Malta may have some defensive resilience to offer against the Faroes.

Malta’s away record is a little more impressive by virtue of the fact they have restricted the larger nations to relatively modest goal tallies.

They were beaten 3-0 in Sweden in June. They then lost 2-0 in Norway in September and 1-0 in Romania.

This suggests they may have some defensive resilience to offer against the Faroes. However, they were beaten 4-0 by Sweden at home last Saturday.

Pick: Malta win  +370

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The Republic of Ireland are unbeaten and can seal qualification if they win against Switzerland on Tuesday, October 15, at Stade De Geneve, Geneva, at 2:45 pm EST.

However, the Irish Group D leaders have drawn three of their six fixtures so far and may adopt the cautious approach of settling for a point – with a final game to follow at home against Denmark.

Euro 2020 Group D Switzerland vs Republic of Ireland  Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Switzerland -1 +101 -182 Ov2, 2½ +102
Republic of Ireland +1 -121 +460 Un2, 2½ -122
Draw N/A +285 N/A

Switzerland have drawn twice in five fixtures. One of these was a 1-1 result against the Irish in Dublin in September.

That makes the price of +285 for a draw look the most promising this time around.

However, there could be a bolder opportunity in backing Ireland to get the three points they require to book their place at the finals, with the price at a generous +460.

Goalless Stalemate in Georgia

Mick McCarthy’s Irish team have 12 points after settling for a vital away point in a goalless draw in Georgia last Saturday.

The Swiss have eight points after they lost 1-0 away against second-placed Denmark on the same day.

Although Ireland top the group, this is by virtue of two wins against tiny Gibraltar and one defeat of the minnows of Georgia at home.

Against the group’s stronger nations, they have drawn 1-1 in Denmark and 1-1 at home against the Swiss.

The Swiss have a game in hand and can strike a major blow towards qualifying if they win in Geneva.

This suggests a policy of keeping things tight against the better teams is paying off. It may be repeated this time around.

The Swiss have a game in hand and can strike a major blow towards qualifying if they win in Geneva. This is priced at -185 but a draw looks most likely.

Pick: Draw +285

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In Group F, Norway are draw specialists with four in seven fixtures.

One of those was a 2-2 result at home against Romania in June.

That puts a shine on the offer of +210 for the return fixture on Tuesday on October 15, at Arena Nationala, Bucharest, at 2:45 pm EST.

Euro 2020 Group F Romania vs Norway Odds

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Romania pk -116 +156 Ov2 -128
Norway pk -104 +175 Un2 +108
Draw N/A +210 N/A

However, that draw is the only one recorded by the Romanians in the group.

Third-placed Romania have 13 points and could chase a victory to mount a bid to catch second-placed Sweden – who have a point more. With that in mind, +150 for a home win has potential.

Against that, the Romanians two home wins have been against the minor teams of the group-the Faroes and Malta. They lost 1-2 at home against leaders Spain. So they do not look a threatening force on their own turf.

Pick: Draw +210

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