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Mexico vs Costa Rica Odds & Prediction – Gold Cup Quarterfinals

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Updated Jul 8, 2023 · 6:00 AM PDT

Mexico midfielder Diego Lainez. Mexico vs Costa Rica
Jul 2, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Mexico midfielder Diego Lainez (16) dribbles against Qatar midfielder Ali Asad (8) during the second half at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
  • It’s Mexico vs Costa Rica in the CONCACAF quarterfinal on Saturday, July 8
  • Mexico start as odds-on favorites against the experienced Costa Ricans
  • Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Mexico vs Costa Rica in the CONCACAF Gold Cup quarterfinal on Saturday, July 8, with kick-off in Arlington’s AT&T Stadium’s Bank at 7:00 pm ET.

Mexico qualified for this quarterfinal by finishing top of Group B, despite losing 1-0 in their final game against Qatar, while Costa Rica secured second place in Group C after winning a ten-goal thriller against Martinique.

We preview our Mexico vs Costa Rica picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.

Mexico vs Costa Rica Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Mexico -275
Costa Rica +800
Draw +400

Mexico are the bookmakers’ -275 odds-on favorites with an implied win probability of 73%, while Costa Rica are listed at a much more generous +800, implied at just 11%. The draw is also generously priced at +400 in the Mexico vs Costa Rica odds and is implied at 20%.


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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on July 8.

Mexico vs Costa Rica Over/Under and Spread

With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals, the bookies have listed the over at -145 and the under at a more appealing +120.

Mexico vs Costa Rica Preview

This is familiar ground for Mexico who have managed to make it through to the knockout stage of every previous Gold Cup, but the defeat by Qatar was a wake-up call. For interim manager Jaime Lozano it was his first defeat in charge, while for the team, it was their first defeat in 16 games.

Lozano didn’t take charge until mid-June – previous coach Diego Cocca was fired after a 3-0 defeat by the USA in the Nations League semifinal – but, despite the Qatar result, there has been a noticeable change in style with the team returning to a possession-based philosophy.

The Stats Favor the Mexicans

The Mexicans’ Gold Cup record, as their 100 percent knockout stage stat suggests, is outstanding and they haven’t lost a quarterfinal tie since going down 2-1 to Colombia in the 2005 tournament.

Their record against Costa Rica is also excellent. It’s now a decade since they last lost against them, which came in San José in a qualifier for the 2014 World Cup when the hosts won 2-1.

Los Ticos Triumph in Ten-Goal Thriller

Costa Rica looked to be heading out of the tournament after losing their opener against Panama and drawing 0-0 in game 2 with El Salvador, but on a crazy night in New Jersey’s Red Bull Arena, they came out best in a ten-goal thriller against Martinique.

Ironically, the six goals the Costa Ricans scored in that 6-4 win were collectively more than they had scored in their previous seven games.

Thirteen Consecutive Quarters for Costa Rica

Unfortunately for Costa Rica, their manager Luis Fernando Suarez has a poor record against the Mexicans, not only in his current job but also while in charge of Ecuador and Honduras. In eight previous games against Los Ticos, he has won just once – a 2-1 win for Honduras in 2013.

But, also important to remember is that Costa Rica have a good Gold Cup record and have won it three times. This game will represent their 13th consecutive appearance in a Gold Cup quarter-final, although in 2019 and 2021 it was at this hurdle that they fell.

Mexico vs Costa Rica Team Lineups and Injuries

Mexico Projected Lineup: Ochoa, Araujo, Alvarez, Vasquez, Gallardo, Sanchez (E), Chavez, Romo, Antuna, Martin, Pineda.

Injuries & absences: None.

Costa Rica Projected Lineup: Chamorro, Fuller, Waston, Vargas, Calvo, Azofeifa, Borges, Campbell, Mora, Madrigal, Contreras.

Injuries & absences: None.

Mexico vs Costa Rica Head-to-Head Stats

2-0-1 CONCACAF 2023 record 1-1-1
7 / 2 Goals for / against 7 / 6
12 FIFA ranking 34
1 CONCACAF ranking 3
Winners (x11) Previous best at Gold Cup Winners (x3)
25 Previous Gold Cup appearances 22
DLWWWL Form Guide (all comps) LLLDW

Mexico vs Costa Rica Prediction

Mexico start favorites for good reason – they have a 100 percent record at this stage of the competition – but Costa Rica also has a good Gold Cup record.

But the Mexicans will have a massive following in Arlington, which will give them an extra edge, and while this looks unlikely to be another high-scorer, it’s hard to see past a win for El Tri.

Mexico vs Costa Rica Picks: Mexico to win (-275) 


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