Minnesota United vs LA Galaxy Odds & Pick – MLS Cup Playoffs Round 1

• Minnesota United host LA Galaxy at Allianz Field on Sunday, October 20, 2019
• The Loons are playing in and hosting their first-ever playoff match
• See the odds for Minnesota vs Los Angeles for their Round 1 MLS Cup Playoff tie

The LA Galaxy finished fifth in the Western Conference and will travel to Allianz Field in Minnesota in Round 1 of the Audi 2019 MLS Cup Playoffs on Sunday, October 20, 2019 at 8:30 pm EST.

We break down this Round 1 playoff match and provide some expert betting advice.

Minnesota United vs LA Galaxy Odds

*Odds taken 10/16/19

First Taste of Playoffs for Loons

Minnesota rolled into Decision Day with just the matter of trying to lock up home-field advantgae on their minds, as the MLS Cup Playoffs had already been clinched. That’s a new feeling for the team playing in just their third MLS season. When you consider the horrific start to their life in MLS the past two seasons, where they finished ninth and tenth in 2017 and 2018, with 36 points each year, the turnaround in Year 3 has been remarkable.

we're not afraid of anyone in the playoffs…

…especially at @allianzfield pic.twitter.com/KqiPumHOcJ

— Minnesota United FC (@MNUFC) October 11, 2019

The Loons allowed 70 and 71 goals each of their first two seasons, but shored things up defensively in 2019 by only allowing 43. Only Real Salt Lake (41) and LAFC (37) allowed fewer in the West. Their 52 goals scored is also a new team-high, yet only three more than they tallied last season. Meaning their defensive acumen has truly been the catalyst for their improvement.

Minnesota closed the season on Decision Day with a 1-0 road loss in Seattle, in a match that decided second-place in the West. So while it wasn’t the ideal way to end the regular season, it was just the first loss in five matches for the Loons, and just their second in their past eight.

Only Real Salt Lake (41) and LAFC (37) allowed fewer goals in the West than Minnesota United.

Each of those losses came on the road, where Minnesota lost 10/17 matches this year. At home, they have turned Allianz Field into a fortress with ten wins on their home pitch, compared to just a single loss and six draws. That lone defeat came way back on June 2 in 3-2 loss to the Philadelphia Union.

Minnesota United vs Los Angeles Galaxy Stats

With just a short time spent in the league, Minneota and LA have squared off on just six previous occasions. Historically these sides have been involved in fairly open matches where goals have been aplenty. Their first five head-to-heads saw at least three goals scored each game and both teams finding the back of the net in four of those matches.

The first Minnesota United vs LA Galaxy match this season was a 3-2 Galaxy win in Los Angeles. However, their most recent match ended in a 0-0 draw in Minnesota back in April.

Galaxy Giveaway Home-Field

The Galaxy finished just two points below Minnesota in the Western Conference, resulting in a fifth-place finish and a road trip for Round 1 of the MLS Cup Playoffs.

For much of the season it looked 50-50 if the Galaxy would even make the playoffs as they hung around the playoff line for long stretches of the year. After three recent wins, it looked as if they may lock down home-field advantage for Round 1, but two crushing defeats in the final two weeks means Guillermo Barros Schelotto’s side will take to the road on Sunday.

.@LAFC wrap up the regular season on top. ?

Full power rankings following #DecisionDay: https://t.co/6GfbehwaFE pic.twitter.com/e0aiIOt0tR

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 9, 2019

Knowing what to expect from the Galaxy on a week-to-week basis is near impossible. The side is maddeningly inconsistent. Since July 27, Los Angeles went on runs that saw them lose three-straight, go undefeated in their next three, lose two, win three, before losing their final two matches of the season.

What makes those final two losses even tougher to swallow is the fact that each came to teams already eliminated from the playoffs in games the Galaxy needed to ensure home-field advantage this weekend. LA played home to the Vancouver Whitecaps on September 29 and lost 4-3 in a game in which they never led. Then on Decision Day they traveled to Houston and again conceded four times in a 4-2 loss to the Dynamo.

The journey begins. #MLSCupPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/i7w8EI44Kb

— LA Galaxy (@LAGalaxy) October 6, 2019

That’s eight goals conceded over their past two games and the third time they’ve allowed four in their past seven. With 59 goals conceded, LA allowed the most goals on the season of any playoff team in either the Western or Eastern Conferences. In fact, four non-playoff teams allowed fewer goals than the Galaxy, while two non-playoff sides equalled them with 59.

Minnesota United vs LA Galaxy Best Bet

The trend in recent Minnesota matches definitely points to the “Under” with 12 of their past 15 matches seeing less then three goals scored. Seven of those matches actually saw less than two goals scored. During this same stretch of games, the Loons have also conceded more than once on just two occasions, with neither of those instances coming in their past five.

"When you come to New York, you have the Statue of Liberty. When you come to Sweden, you have the Statue of Zlatan." – @Ibra_official ? pic.twitter.com/NdGWbtj6U2

— LA Galaxy (@LAGalaxy) October 8, 2019

That trend gets flipped on its head when we switch over to the Galaxy who have played nine-straight games with three goals or more being scored and 14/15 since July 12. Both teams have scored in each of those nine matches and the total average goals scored in that stretch is 5.33 with 48 combined goals in Galaxy matches.

So while LA’s defense has been leaking goals, the offense has at least been holding up their end. The problem though, is the offense is often a little too reliant on Zlatan Ibrahimović. His 30 goals on the year put him second to only LAFC’s Carlos Vela and accounted for an incredible 51.7-percent of LA’s 58 goals this season.

May the odds be ever in your favor. @FiveThirtyEight takes a look at the Western Conferences' chances in Round 1: https://t.co/8ocR3mbGf6 pic.twitter.com/RhBjIr6BeC

— Major League Soccer (@MLS) October 10, 2019

With a win, the Galaxy will book a date with crosstown rival LAFC in the Conference Semifinal and you can be sure they’ll want to continue their success against the second-year side and ruin their bid for a historic season. If nothing else, the Galaxy and Ibra will usually show up for big games.

However, their play on the road is hard to get behind with your wallet. LA have just five wins on the road this season and only one against playoff opposition. That came against RSL on September 25 and was their only road win in their past nine travels.

I see something between their 0-0 and 3-2 previous results happening this weekend with Minnesota ultimately being the better overall team and advancing. With a simple “both teams to score” only paying -230, we can combine it with “Over 2.5” as well.

Picks: Both teams to score and Over 2.5 total goals (-150) or Minnesota to Qualify (-175)