MLS Week 27 Odds & Picks: Portland Timbers vs RSL, Austin FC vs LA Galaxy & More

• MLS Week 27 takes place from September 25-26, 2021
• New England has become the first team to clinch a playoff spot
• Read on for the odds and our best bets from MLS Week 27

MLS Week 27 kicks off this Saturday with a full slate of 13 matches this weekend. As the New England Revolution continues to push closer and close to clinching the Supporters’ Shield, while already clinching a playoff spot, the playoff races are heating up across both conferences as the regular season nears the final stretch.

Most teams will be relatively fresh this weekend with only three-midweek games taking place on Wednesday. Those included Miami vs Nashville, Chicago vs New England and the Red Bulls vs NYCFC. The Seattle Sounders were also in action in the Leagues Cup Final though, losing 3-2 to Club Leon. While Both Toronto and Montreal were victorious in the Canadian Championship.

The week also saw FC Dallas fire head coach Luchi Gonzalez, with Director of Soccer Operations Marco Ferruzzi to take over on an interim basis.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the MLS Week 27 schedule below.

MLS Week 27 Odds

Odds as of Sept 24 at DraftKings

DC United vs FC Cincinnati Prediction

One of three 7:30 pm EST games on Saturday evening, sees DC hosting Cincinnati in MLS Week 27.

With just four wins on the season, FC Cincinnati really hasn’t been good anywhere this season, no matter if the match is played home or away. But they have been exponentially worse away from TQL Stadium. This, despite three of their four wins actually coming on the road.

Cincinnati’s goal-differential at home is just -4. On the road, it’s -16. Their xG goal-differential at home is +0.3. On the road, it’s -12.1.

Their last three road matches have all ended in defeat by scorelines of 4-0, 3-2 and 4-1. A 0-0 draw with the Red Bulls, broke up two more recent road results which ended in 3-0 and 5-4 losses as well. On the season, in 13 road games, they’ve conceded multiple goals on eight occasions. If we look into the five road games where they didn’t concede multiple goals they came against the likes of Montreal, Chicago, Toronto, Houston and the Red Bulls. Only Montreal is currently in a playoff position of that group.

🔊 Hear from HC Jaap Stam ahead of the team's trip to #DCU.#FCCincy | @DrinkBODYARMOR pic.twitter.com/NuhvoFaulp

— FC Cincinnati (@fccincinnati) September 23, 2021

Now DC also finds themselves on the outside looking in right now when it comes to the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They lost 3-2 in Atlanta last weekend but were 2-1-0 in the three matches prior. They’ve scored multiple goals in seven of their past nine matches. At home is where DC has collected 24 of their 34 points this season. They’re 8-0-3 at Audi Field, outscoring opponents 21-8.

Whether home or away, DC is one of the league’s highest-scoring teams both from a goals for and xG perspective. Their 41 goals scored rank fifth overall in MLS. Their xG of 40.1 also ranks fifth overall. It’s rare that DC doesn’t create chances from an xG metric. After their first two games of the season, they’ve recorded a 1.0 xG or more in 22/23 matches. In their nine most recent games they’ve recorded an xG of 1.6 or higher seven times. Three times during that stretch they’ve recorded xGs exceeding two goals (2.0, 2.8 and 2.9).

“I didn’t like the player I was at that time”

How ⁦@OlaKamara⁩ changed his physical and mental approach and became MLS’s scoring leader#dcu #mls
https://t.co/g7gRgqmZAG

— Steven Goff (@SoccerInsider) September 24, 2021

Many of those goals have come from current Golden Boot leader Ola Kamara who’s tallied 16 times. That far exceeds his personal xG of 11.4, which ranks fourth in MLS. Kamara has five goals in four games and scored a hat-trick in DC’s 3-0 win over Chicago two games back. Kamara as an anytime scorer has odds of -110.

DC pressures the fourth-most in MLS. They’re always looking to push forward and attack and should be able to find the back of the net a couple of times this weekend.

Pick: DC United Over 1.5 Goals (-165)

Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake Prediction

It’s late-night MLS at 10:30 pm EST Saturday. It will be a crucial match for the Western playoff race with Portland in fifth hosting RSL in sixth and the teams separated by just a single point.

Portland looks to be peaking at the right time. After a streak of just one win in seven games, they’re now undefeated in their past five. Three wins via clean sheets proceeded their most recent 2-2 draw (vs COL) and 2-1 win (vs LAFC) results.

Another huge Western Conference clash tomorrow.

Get ready with @JakeZivin and The Matchup. #RCTID pic.twitter.com/D4zDPZ4foR

— Portland Timbers (@TimbersFC) September 24, 2021

Those two recent results, with goals coming from both sides and three or more total, are more indicative of how Timbers’ matches usually play out. They are 16-9 to Over 2.5 totals. Both teams had scored in eight straight of their matches prior to this recent five-match undefeated streak.

Only three teams in all of MLS have played to more Overs than Portland. One is New England (17-10), two come from the West, and one comes in the form of their Saturday opponents. Both the LA Galaxy and Real Salt Lake are 17-8 to Over 2.5 totals.

RSL posted a big 1-0 win over the Seattle Sounders on Saturday, which goes against that trend, however, Sounders’ matches are generally lower scoring. They are just 9-15 to the Over.

For RSL, in their previous six matches both teams scoring and totals exceeding 2.5 goals were a perfect 6-0. In those six games, they scored 14 times while conceding 15.

RSL had totaled the sixth-most shots on target this season. While Portland has conceded eighth-most shots on their own goal.

There’s been one earlier meeting this season that saw Portland take a 2-0 lead within the opening 29 minutes of play and eventually go on to win 3-2. With two offensive teams who usually also struggle to keep it tight in the back, we could see goals again this weekend.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-115)

Austin FC vs LA Galaxy Prediction

The final match of MLS Week 27 sees expansion side Austin FC hosting the Los Angeles Galaxy at 9:30 pm EST Sunday night.

It’s the second meeting between the teams this season with LA winning 2-0 back on May 15. That was during a run of eight straight road matches for Austin to open the season. Austin was also without captain Alex Ring who was suspended. They will have to do without Ring once again here as he picked up a red card on the weekend against San Jose.

Fast forward four months and these teams are both where one may have expected. Austin, an expansion team are dead last in the West, and 26th out of 27 teams in MLS overall. The Galaxy, with Chicharito, are sitting fourth in the West.

But neither team comes into this match in strong form. Over the past five rounds, Austin has collected zero points, while LA has just three—both of those totals are worst and second-worst in MLS over that time.

Every match we give our all. Sunday, another test awaits. pic.twitter.com/kYt6fSkuiT

— Austin FC (@AustinFC) September 24, 2021

Austin has dropped five straight and has just one win in their last nine matches. The Galaxy aren’t much better with zero wins in their past six (0-3-3) and one win in eight.

Both teams are also coming off defeats in their most recent match. Austin were involved in a wild 4-3 defeat at home to San Jose. In each of the past five defeats they’ve conceded multiple goals and three of those losses they conceded three or more times. Overall they’ve been outscored 16-8. Despite that lopsided goal-differential, they’ve scored in four of five and in six of their past seven.

Chicharito, though recently returned from injury, was held out of LA’s weekend match against Minnesota. LA fell 3-0 in defeat, which snapped a run of three straight draws. It was also the first time in nine matches the Galaxy had failed to score. In most of those matches, Chicharito wasn’t in the lineup. He did score against Houston on September 15 though.

Chicharito scores his 11th goal of the season, and his first since coming back from injury ✨

(via @MLS) pic.twitter.com/SR7Ej8EWmR

— B/R Football (@brfootball) September 16, 2021

Austin may be losing, but they at least haven’t given up. And at home they’ve scored in each of their past six matches at Q2 Stadium. Each of those six have seen both teams scoring and at least three goals being scored.

Galaxy matches have been an Over cashing machine for bettors this season at 17-8. While Austin’s matches were lower-scoring earlier this year and they are just 11-14 to the Over this season, they’ve played to seven straight Overs of late.

Hard to back a winner given the form of each side, but we should see goals coming from both sides on Sunday night.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 (-135)