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Newcastle vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds, Lineups – Premier League Picks

Gary Gowers

by Gary Gowers in Soccer News

Apr 1, 2023 · 9:00 AM PDT

Atalanta vs Manchester United
Atalanta's Merih Demiral, left, challenges Manchester United's Marcus Rashford during the Champions League Group F soccer match between Manchester United and Atalanta at Old Trafford, Manchester, England, Wednesday, Oct. 20, 2021. (AP Photo/Dave Thompson)
  • It’s Newcastle vs Manchester United in the EPL Week 29 on Sunday, April 2
  • Just three points separate the fifth-placed Toon and third-placed Man Utd
  • Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks

It’s Newcastle vs Manchester United in the EPL Week 29 on Sunday, April 2. It all kicks off at St James’ Park at 11:30 am ET. The home team starts as plus-money favorites but are they the best bet for your Newcastle vs Manchester United prediction?

With just 12 games to go, the Toon’s quest for a 2023-24 Champions League place has reached crunch time, so victory here over third-placed United would give their chances of Europe a massive boost.

We preview our Newcastle vs Manchester United picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and Newcastle vs Manchester United predictions below.

Newcastle vs Manchester United Odds

Matchup Moneyline
Newcastle +135
Manchester United +205
Draw +245

The bookmakers have the Toon listed as plus-money favorites at +135 with an implied home win probability of 43%, while Man Utd are offered at +205 with a win probability of 33%. The draw is priced at +245 in the Newcastle vs Manchester United odds, which is implied at 29%.


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Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on March 31.

Newcastle vs Manchester United Over/Under and Spread

With the benchmark at 2.5 goals in the game, the bookies have pitched the under at -110 and the over at -115, which reflects the difficulty in predicting how this one will play out.

Newcastle vs Manchester United Preview

Newcastle’s season has been generally good as their lavish Saudi funding starts to have an effect. Their aim of achieving Champions League soccer appears to be edging ever closer and only three defeats all season for Eddie Howe’s men has been an outstanding defensive effort – matched only by leaders, Arsenal.

If the Toon had been able to turn some of their 11 draws into wins, then they could be mounting a title challenge of their own right now but the possibility of a consolation prize in the form of a place in the 2023-24 Champions League would be seen as a fine result.

Toon on Course for Europe

This game also offers the Toon the chance of revenge after losing 2-0 in the EPL Cup Final to Manchester United at the end of February. It was a defeat that denied them their first piece of silverware since 1955 and came in the middle of their worst run of the season – one win in eight – which came at the worst possible time.

But two wins in their two games before the international break have steadied the Newcastle ship and set them back on course for Europe. When these two met at Old Trafford back in October, it ended goal-less.

Wembley Triumph for United

Erik ten Haag’s first season in charge at United has been one of a mainly upward trajectory but has not been without its disappointments. The week after winning the EFL Cup, when they beat Sunday’s opponents at Wembley, they went to Anfield and suffered a 7-0 humiliation, which ranked alongside an equally humiliating 4-0 defeat at Brentford earlier in the season.

The flip side is, of course, the Wembley triumph and thrilling wins over league leaders Arsenal in the EPL, and Barcelona en route to the quarterfinals of the Europa League. In summary, this United team is capable of brilliance on its day but is also prone to serving up the occasional horror show.

Rashford a Doubt for St James’

Prior to the international break, United was unbeaten in four and looked to have put their Anfield horror show behind them, but news that Marcus Rashford had to miss both England games due to injury and is 50/50 for this one is a blow for ten Haag. The England international has been the beating heart of United’s renaissance and their physio team will be doing everything they can to get him fit.

But, while United – partly due to the form of Rashford – now look very dangerous in attack, their defensive worries persist and only three teams have worse defensive away-from-home records. Against a flying Toon, who will be backed by their raucous and passionate fans, this will be a massive test for United’s back four.

Newcastle vs Manchester United Team Lineups and Injuries

Newcastle Projected Lineup: Pope, Trippier, Schar, Botman, Burn, Longstaff, Guimaraes, Willock, Saint-Maximin, Joelinton, Isak.

Injuries & absences: Almiron, Krafth, Fraser.

Manchester United Projected Lineup: De Gea, Wan-Bissaka, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw, Sabitzer, McTominay, Antony, Fernandes, Sancho, Weghorst.

Injuries & absences: Casemiro, Garnacho, Heaton, van de Beek, Eriksen.

Newcastle vs Manchester United Head-to-Head Stats

12-11-3 EPL record 2022-23 15-5-6
39 / 19 Goals for / against 41 / 35
14.1 Shots per game* 14.1
79.0 Passing accuracy (%)* 81.3
51.0 Possession (%)* 52.6
DLLLWW Form guide (all comps) WLWDWW

* Stats from WhoScored.com.

Newcastle vs Manchester United Prediction

Much depends here on which Man Utd turns up – the one that beat the Toon at Wembley or the one beaten 7-0 by Liverpool – but if Rashford is fit then the balance, for me, tilts in their favor.

So, there looks decent value in the +205 on offer for the away win, especially if United can withstand the early Newcastle pressure. With McTominay on a high after his heroics with Scotland, he’s the ideal player to step into the shoes of the suspended Casemiro and, if United stay in the game early on, I see them edging this by the odd goal.

Newcastle vs Manchester United Picks: Man Utd to win (+205) / Under 2.5 goals (-110) 

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