Odds Update for La Liga’s Title, Top 4 and Relegation Races as League Resumes on June 11

• Spain’s La Liga season returns from the coronavirus stoppage this week
• Barcelona are the current favorites to win the title, closely followed by Real Madrid
• Read on for an update of the current odds for La Liga’s title, Top 4 and relegation battles as the league prepares to return

The second of Europe’s big leagues to return to play will be Spain’s La Liga which restarts on Thursday with the Seville derby between Sevilla and Real Betis.

It’s a match with more importance for Sevilla whom when we last left the league were sitting third in the table with 47 points—well off the title race, but well in the Champions League conversation. Betis, meanwhile sit 12th with 33 points, likely too far away from European contention, but also likely far enough removed from serious relegation threat.

La Liga’s last match played was on March 10, leaving each team with 27 matches played. As we pick back up with Spain’s title race, it’s the usual suspects, Barcelona and Real Madrid taking things down to the wire with 58 and 56 points respectively.

La Liga president Javier Tebas has implemented an ambitious plan to see matches played every day upon the league’s return. Teams will have at least 72 hours between matches, games will be played behind closed doors with strict safety precautions and the plan will be to have all matches concluded (11 rounds) by July 19.

La Liga Odds

Odds taken June 8

The title race sees Barcelona at -165 in the La Liga odds to go on and win their third-straight title. The league stoppage didn’t come at the best of times for Barca who had lost just once in their past six outings. That one loss though did come to their rivals Real Madrid two games prior to the shutdown, a 1-0 defeat.

The flipside is that the stoppage has given time for players like defender Samuel Umtiti and striker Luis Suarez to recover from injuries. Umtiti had already been dealing with injury this season and suffered a calf strain during an individual training session in early May. Suarez suffered a major knee injury and had not played since January 9. The time off should allow both to feature for Barca during the restart.

The Catalan giants will look to begin strong with what should be straight-forward wins over 18th-place Mallorca and 19th-place Leganes. They close the season with bottom-half of the table teams Espanyol, Valladolid and Osasuna as well. Tougher matches will see them face third-place Sevilla and sixth and eighth-place Atletico Madrid and Villarreal.

📺WATCH | #LaLiga president Javier Tebas discusses the logistical issues of the restart, recognizing the difficulties in making the schedule with matches happening in a row and teams needing a 72-hour break between games. https://t.co/0yymzqjQoj

— Sportstar (@sportstarweb) June 1, 2020

Of course, only two points back, Los Blancos still have plenty to say in the title race and are definitely the better value play at +135 odds. For Real Madrid, the stoppage may have been a good halt in the season for them as they were fledgling at the time of shutdown. Madrid entered the break off a loss, 2-1 to Real Betis and had lost three of four, with just one win in five matches overall when you count their UCL defeat to Man City. A loss to Levante and draw with Celta Vigo were not encouraging results.

While Madrid resume with the relegation-threatened 16th-place Eibar, they’ll then face top-four challengers Valencia and Real Sociedad. In all, they’ll face six Top 10 sides in their remaining 11 matches. This compared to the four that Barcelona will face, plus the already slight points advantage for Barca, make Barcelona the bet for me to win the La Liga title.

Seville's streets are decorated ready for the return of La Liga

📸 @inmajimsev pic.twitter.com/VEvqWRRP55

— B/R Football (@brfootball) June 8, 2020

Wild Finish for Top 4

The argument can be made, rather easily, that at least five, and maybe even up to eight sides have a shout at the Champions League places for Top 4.

Starting with third-place Sevilla on 47 points, spots three to ten are separated by nine points. With 11 matchdays remaining that still leaves 33 points up for grabs. If we zero in on the top contenders, there’s the aforementioned Sevilla, followed by fourth-place Real Sociedad (46 points), fifth Getafe (46), sixth Atletico Madrid (45) and seventh Valencia (42).

⏳ Let the countdown begin! ⌛️

RT 🔁 if you're excited for the return of #LaLigaSantander on June 11th.#BackToWin

— LaLiga English (@LaLigaEN) May 31, 2020

Picking just two of these sides is an extremely tough task with so little between them. Sevilla leads the pack and Atletico Madrid are always in the mix so both look like obvious choices. Atleti should also resume with some confidence after advancing to the Champions League quarterfinals by defeating Liverpool in their last match prior to the stoppage.

Though Sevilla and Atleti, both at -175 odds for a Top 4 finish, don’t look like the best of odds right now, considering a win or loss here or there in the first few games could see those odds significantly swing. Atletico Madrid do have a chance for a strong restart given the fact they won’t play a team ranked higher than tenth until meeting Barcelona in their sixth game back. What follows are matches against teams ranked 18th, 17th and 12th, before finishing out against Getafe (5th) and Real Sociedad (4th).

Martin Ødegaard for Real Sociedad in La Liga this season:

• most progressive passes (220)
• most shot-creating action (101)
• most passes into the box (68)
• most goal-creating actions (14)
• most through balls (10)
• most xA (5.4)

Their primary creator at just 21. 🧙‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/VjRU3RSs8n

— Statman Scouts (@StatmanScouts) June 5, 2020

Atleti games will always be close as their games ranked tied for the lowest GPG in the league at 1.9. They’ve scored 31 while allowing just 21 in 27 matches, giving UNDER 2.5 totals a record of 20-7.

Speaking of Sociedad, I feel at 2-1 odds they are the best value bet for a Top 4 finish at least right now. They currently are fourth, and will only play two teams ranked inside the top eight in the table in their first eight games back from the stoppage. And while any momentum from pre-stoppage is likely over, for what it’s worth they had won four of five before the shutdown.

With the likely limited advantage of home-field in the restart, it could also be worth noting that Sociedad have collected the fourth-most points on the road this term with a 6-2-6 record on their travels.

La Liga Relegation Contenders

Much like the race for Champions League places, almost every team currently ranked in the bottom-half of the table can be pulled into the relegation fight. Osasuna are currently 11th with 34 points, but 18th-place Mallorca (currently in the first relegation spot) is not that far behind with 25 points and 11 games to play.

In between are a whole host of teams who could still find themselves in the Segunda next season.

La Liga Relegation Odds

I don’t want any part of the three favorites right now who are all odds-on for the drop. The thing is we have no idea how any of these teams will come out of the break. Perhaps the layoff will rejuvenate these sides who were drifting further into the drop zone.

Outside of the current bottom three, let’s look at two of the next most likely to be relegated sides, 15th-place Valladolid and 16th-place Eibar.

OFFICIAL: Barcelona to restart their La Liga season on June 13 vs. Mallorca. Real Madrid will play vs. Eibar on June 14 🚨 pic.twitter.com/Xf1DU8ySEP

— B/R Football (@brfootball) May 31, 2020

Valladolid lost three of four before the break. They start with a game vs Leganes and then Celta Vigo. Both winnable, but not a given considering Valladolid’s own perilous spot in the table. Following those matches, the schedule intensifies with matches against Atleti, Getafe and Sevilla. Unless they win both of those first two matches, +350 may look like a bargain in a few weeks.

For Eibar, they dropped four of five before the stoppage and had won just once in seven matches. The return to play sees them start with matches against Real Madrid, Athletic Bilbao, Getafe, Valencia and Granada—all teams ranked ninth or better. Much like Valladolid, the plus-money currently on offer could be a great value bet.