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Opening 2021-22 Premier League Odds Favor Manchester City Repeating as Champions

Sam Cox

by Sam Cox in Soccer News

Updated May 25, 2021 · 10:20 AM PDT

Premier League
Manchester City's head coach Pep Guardiola, centre, celebrates winning the English Premier League title after the soccer match between Manchester City and Everton at the Etihad stadium in Manchester, Sunday, May 23, 2021.(AP Photo/Dave Thompson, Pool)
  • Manchester City open as the heavy favorites to win the 2021-22 Premier League title
  • Chelsea and Liverpool are tied at +500
  • Read below for the opening 2021-22 Premier League title odds and betting advice

Having secured a third title in four seasons, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City are odds-on favorites to win the league again in 2021-22. City are in at -139, well ahead of joint-second favorites Chelsea and Liverpool at +500.

DraftKings tabs Manchester United as fourth favorites in the Premier League odds, despite Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s team comfortably finishing second in 2020-21. Beyond the top four, there’s a chasm to Leicester, who are priced at +4000. Managerless Spurs are at the same price.

2021-22 Premier League Odds

Team Odds
Manchester City -139
Chelsea +500
Liverpool +500
Manchester United +650
Leicester +4000
Tottenham +4000
Arsenal +8000
Everton +10000
Aston Villa +15000
Leeds +15000
West Ham +15000
Brighton +20000
Wolves +20000
Newcastle +30000
Southampton +30000
Burnley +50000
Crystal Palace +50000
Norwich +100000
Watford +100000

Odds as of May 25 at DraftKings

Manchester City’s Supremacy

Guardiola’s Manchester City might not have put up a record-breaking point tally like recent seasons, but they were just as superior. Finishing only 12 points clear of Manchester United doesn’t tell the full story. Between December 19th and May 8th, they won 20 of 22 Premier League matches, cruising into the distance at the top of the table.

Their expected numbers were every bit as dominant. City finished with a 42 expected goal difference, which is over 10 clear of Chelsea, who finished second by that metric.

Guardiola continues to reinvent his team, playing much of the season without a recognized striker. It was an attack by committee, with seven players scoring five or more league goals, but no one getting more than Ilkay Gundogan’s 13. While playing a fluid attack without a striker has worked wonders, don’t be surprised to see City dive into the transfer market for a number nine with Sergio Aguero leaving for Barcelona.

The prospect of landing Harry Kane or Erling Haaland only enhances the feeling that City are the overwhelming favorites for next season. The other challengers have a lot of work to do.

Liverpool Get Healthy

For Liverpool, just getting their key men healthy would be a good start. Virgil van Dijk is obviously key, and the Dutchman should be back for the start of next season. Getting Joel Matip and Joe Gomez fit will make a massive difference too, and Jurgen Klopp will hope Jordan Henderson’s injury problems are behind him after the captain made just 21 Premier League appearances in 2020-21.

Georginio Wijnaldum is leaving as a free agent after logging the fifth-most league minutes last season. Curtis Jones is in line for an increased role, but it will be interesting to see if the Liverpool hierarchy move a midfielder this summer.

Liverpool were constantly altering their defense last season. Klopp is hoping for more stability, and it’s looking like they will add Leipzig center-back Ibrahima Konate in the coming weeks. Konate helps their title chances, but this Liverpool squad needs a couple more additions before they represent value at this price.

Will Chelsea Spend Big Again?

Chelsea splashed the cash last summer, investing heavily in Ben Chilwell, Kai Havertz and Timo Werner. Despite making the Champions League and FA Cup finals, and sneaking into the top four on the final day, this is still a long way from a title-winning squad.

Thomas Tuchel has worked wonders at the club. Thiago Silva has been an excellent addition, and has re-signed for next year. Still, though, the midfield is subpar other than N’Golo Kante. As a whole, the squad has struggled to finish chances, underachieving their expected goals by six.

The Blues need a striker. Daniel Levy isn’t going to sell Harry Kane to their London rivals. Tammy Abraham and Olivier Giroud could both depart this summer after being marginalized by Tuchel. For all the signs Chelsea are heading in the right direction, they still reinforcements in central defense, midfield and up front.

Of the two teams at +500, Liverpool are better value. Chelsea are banking on some good signings and consistent performance from their attacking talents. Just being in the title race would be a good season for Tuchel after so nearly missing out on the top four in 2020-21.

Premier League Best Bet

With links to Jadon Sancho and a second-place finish, Manchester United might seem like a long price at +650. Questions remain about Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, however, and the underlying numbers don’t look great. The Red Devils were fourth in expected goal difference, comfortably behind Liverpool and Chelsea.

It’s not fun to say Manchester City are the best bet, but that’s where we are. Guardiola has already spoken about strengthening the squad further. It’s a good idea to back them now before they make significant additions to this group, which could see their title odds shorten further.

The congested schedule worked in City’s favor in 2020-21. While that advantage shouldn’t be as drastic for 2021-22, their depth of talent is just so much greater than their rivals. Even as short as -139, Guardiola’s team are the best bet here.

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