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Porto vs Benfica Odds & Prediction – Taça de Portugal Round of 16

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer

Dec 23, 2021 · 6:44 AM PST

Porto vs Benfica
Porto's Luis Diaz celebrates after scoring during the Champions League group B soccer match between AC Milan and Porto at the San Siro stadium in Milan, Italy, Tuesday, Nov.3 , 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)
  • Porto hosts Benfica in the round of 16 of the Taça de Portugal on Thursday, December 23rd, at 3:45 pm ET
  • To reach this point in the competition, Porto defeated Sintrense and Feirense while Benfica took down Trofense and Paços de Ferreira in the third and fourth rounds
  • Get the odds, analysis, and betting prediction below

On Thursday afternoon, a classic Portuguese rivalry writes another chapter as Porto takes on Benfica at the Estádio do Dragão. The match is part of the round of 16 in the Taça de Portugal, the country’s premier knockout tournament. With eight rounds of play and 154 clubs competing to lift the historic trophy, it is safe to say nobody was expecting the best possible matchup this early.

In fact, these teams are the two winningest sides since the tournament’s rebrand in 1938. Benfica has won the Taça de Portugal 26 times, while Porto follow closely behind with 17 victories.

Additionally, their rivalry dubbed O Clássico is one of the fiercest and most historic in all of Europe. This rivalry transcends past regular league football. Instead, it is a duel for pride and bragging rights between Portugal’s two biggest cities, Porto and Lisbon.

Porto vs Benfica Odds

Matchup Spread Moneyline Total
Porto vs Benfica POR -0.5 (+112) | BEN +0.5 (-141) POR +108 | BEN +220 | DRAW +230 Ov 2.5 (-117) | Un 2.5 (-113)

Odds as of Dec 22nd at Barstool Sportsbook

Porto’s Great Domestic Form

Firstly, let us make one thing abundantly clear, Porto has been dominant in domestic play this season. The Dragões boast a perfect 7-0-0 record at home, while also managing to outscore their visitors by an astounding 19-3 margin. They are the only team aside from Sporting CP yet to lose in the Primiera Liga, holding a comfortable goal differential tiebreaker atop the table.

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When you look at their results over the first half of the season, they drew two Primeira Liga games at the start of the year and fell out of the Taça de Liga to Santa Clara. Aside from that, they have been perfect domestically.

Yes, some losses are scattered through their results. But, that is because they were in the Champions League’s group of death alongside Liverpool, Atletico Madrid and AC Milan. While this is a competition Porto have succeeded in over recent years, these teams are amongst European royalty, so losing to them is nothing to be too upset over.

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Furthermore, what has impressed me the most about Porto this season is their defense. They have only conceded eight times this year, and have held four consecutive clean sheets in Portuguese play. While they are going against a difficult attack featuring the likes of Darwin Nunez and Rafa Silva, I favor them to stay organized and compact. Pepe will miss this game at center back due to injury, but expect Fabio Cardoso to partner with Chancel Mbemba in his absence.

Benfica’s Offense Firing on All Cylinders

Nonetheless, while Porto rank amongst the best Portuguese defenses, Benfica rank as the best offense statistically. They have scored 46 goals in the Primeira Liga and have poured in 16 goals over their last four games.

Porto vs Benfica Primeira Liga Statistics

2.53 Goals per game 3.06
1.66 Goals allowed per game 0.80
64.9% Possession % 64.3%
84.5% Passing Accuracy % 86.5%
17.9 Shots per game 14.3

Their defense featuring the likes of ex-EPL talent Jan Vertonghen and Nicolas Otamendi has also been superb lately. While their competition has not been great lately, the combination of form on both sides of the pitch has allowed Benfica to come out of their miserable fall run.

As a matter of fact, for those unaware, Benfica played 11 matches in October and November and only managed to win four. They look like they are finally starting to round the corner and should be full of confidence after qualifying for the next round of the Champions League. With goalscorers all around the pitch including the likes of Nunez, Silva, Roman Yaremchuk and Joao Mario, they absolutely cannot be counted out.

Recent H2H Results

Finally, in 247 matches between these two sides, Porto has won 97 and Benfica has won 88. The head-to-head results are quite even, but have been more skewed towards Porto’s favor in recent years.

Benfica has not won this match since March of 2019, and in 16 games since 2015 they have only managed to win twice. Regardless, six of those matches also ended in draw, which makes that full-time result a definite possibility as well.

Porto vs Benfica Best Bet

Overall, the best bet for this match is the Porto moneyline with odds of +108. The odds on this bet are solid, and while I think the margin of this game will be narrow, I ultimately still think Porto get the job done at the Dragão in front of their home faithful.

Pick: Porto moneyline (+108)

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