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Premier League Matchday 38 Odds & Picks: Liverpool vs Wolves, Brighton vs West Ham & Brentford vs Leeds

Josh Ricker

by Josh Ricker in Soccer News

May 21, 2022 · 5:52 AM PDT

Premier League Matchday 16
Liverpool players celebrate after Divock Origi, 2nd left, scored the opening goal during the English Premier League soccer match between Wolverhampton Wanderers and Liverpool at the Molineux Stadium in Wolverhampton, England, Saturday, Dec. 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Rui Vieira)
  • On May 22nd, all twenty Premier League teams kick off at 11am ET as part of the Premier League’s Championship Sunday
  • If Manchester City beat Aston Villa at home, they will lift their fourth Premier League title in just five years
  • Get the odds, our analysis and betting predictions for Matchday 38 in the Premier League

On Championship Sunday, the 2021/22 Premier League season pens its final chapter. So far, the story of the season has been one to write about for years to come.

At one point this season, Liverpool trailed their northwest rivals by fourteen points. Now, the Reds of Merseyside find themselves in a Premier League race that will go down to the final day, loitering just one point behind Man City.

Elsewhere, we have watched a topsy-turvy top four race shared by the likes of Tottenham, Arsenal and Man United. Tottenham can clinch the last Champions League qualification spot with a victory against Norwich while three teams are vying for the remaining Europa and Conference League spots. Finally, at the bottom of the table, either Burnley or Leeds will be relegated on Sunday.

Premier League Matchday 38 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Arsenal vs Everton -286 +410 +850
Brentford vs Leeds +135 +280 +185
Brighton vs West Ham +135 +265 +195
Burnley vs Newcastle +125 +250 +220
Chelsea vs Watford -625 +700 +1800
Crystal Palace vs Man United +205 +270 +128
Leicester City vs Southampton -121 +320 +290
Liverpool vs Wolves -670 +750 +1900
Man City vs Aston Villa -590 +700 +1600
Norwich City vs Tottenham +1000 +550 -385

Odds as of May 20th at Barstool Sportsbook

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Man City are the heavy favorites this weekend against Aston Villa with moneyline odds of -590. Currently, their odds to win the Premier League are -700 while Liverpool have plus odds of +500, ahead of their game versus Wolves.

Liverpool vs Wolves Prediction

One thing is for certain, Liverpool have to win for this title race to be on. However, Wolves will not be easy opponents on Sunday. In fact, in their last five head-to-head meetings, Liverpool have only beaten them by multiple goals on one occasion. Moreover, three of those games ended in 1-0 finishes.

If you remember their reverse fixture in early December, it took a 94th minute Divock Origi goal for Liverpool to see three points. Klopp’s men controlled 65% of the ball while accumulating an xG count of 2.5 at the Molineux Stadium. Wolves were happy to sit back and defend with Rayan Ait-Nouri and Scouser, Conor Coady being the standouts on the day.

Regardless, it is difficult to doubt Liverpool in front of an Anfield crowd that has witnessed a 78% win percentage in the Premier League and has not seen defeat on the final day since 1989. I expect a nice tidy Liverpool win, that does not eclipse the total over on 2.5 goals.

Pick: Under 2.5 total goals (+185)

Brighton vs West Ham Prediction

In particular, this match is interesting because West Ham still have the Europa League to play for. Currently, they sit in a Conference League spot, which would frankly be a downgrade for David Moyes’ side.

However, due to their +11 goal difference, they could probably reach that goal with a victory and Man United slip versus Crystal Palace.

Furthermore, they should be positive heading into this match at the Amex Stadium. Brighton are the 17th best Premier League side at home, winning a shockingly low 19 of 54 points there.

While West Ham had a rocky run to end the season, you have to give them credit for the competition they have gone up against.

Against Man City last weekend, they showed there is still gas in the tank which is why I do not see them leaving empty handed. Not to mention that Jarrod Bowen has been an absolute delight in his last two starts, scoring and assisting twice.

Pick: West Ham DNB (+116)

Brentford vs Leeds Prediction

Lastly, we have Brentford vs Leeds in a match that could decide the final relegation spot. Presently, Burnley and Leeds are deadlocked on 35 points. Although Leeds’s abysmal goal difference of -38 gives them a significant disadvantage going into the final day.

On top of that, Brentford have been slightly better at home this season. More importantly, they have been better in the last few weeks, finishing the season 7-1-2.

Leeds have not had that fortune, and it looks like Jesse Marsch could be the man that brings them down. They will have to be open in this match and attack, which we all know is their deadly kryptonite for teams to exploit. Overall, I see a Brentford win and a sad Yorkshire goodbye.

Pick: Brentford moneyline (+135)

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