Real Madrid vs Man City Odds & Picks – Champions League Semifinals Leg 1
- It’s Real Madrid vs Man City in the first leg of the semifinal of the 2022-23 Champions League
- The winners of this tie will play the winner of the Inter Milan vs AC Milan semifinal
- Find our prediction below, where we look at the odds and offer some picks
It’s Real Madrid vs Man City in the semifinal of the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday, May 9, with kick off in Madrid’s Santiago Bernabeu at 3:00 pm ET. Man City start as favorites to win this tie and the whole tournament, with the winners of this tie meeting the winners of the other all-Milan semifinal.
We preview our Real Madrid vs Man City picks, look at the odds, and offer some analysis, team news, and predictions below.
Real Madrid vs Man City Odds
| Matchup | Moneyline | To Advance to Final |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | +215 | +235 |
| Man City | +120 | -310 |
| Draw | +265 | N/A |
The bookmakers have City listed as plus-money favorites at +120 to win with an implied win probability of 45%, while Real are offered at +215 to win the game with a probability of 32%. The draw is priced at +265 in the Real Madrid vs Man City odds and is implied at 27%. City are -310 favorites to make it to the final after both legs.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook on May 8.
Real Madrid vs Man City Over/Under and Spread
With the tipping point set at 2.5 goals in the game, the bookies have listed the under at +115 and the over at a less appealing -145.
Real Madrid vs Man City Preview
It’s already been a successful week for Real, with the Copa del Rey trophy already in the bag following a 2-1 win in Saturday’s final over Osasuna. Rodrygo was again the two-goal hero, as he was in the Champions League semifinal second leg against Chelsea, and will be key to their chances against Man City.
With the La Liga title now out of Real’s reach – Barcelona leads the table by 13 points with just five games remaining – the focus of Carlo Ancelotti’s men is now solely on the Champions League. If they can get past City and then beat the winners of the other semifinal, it will be the 15th time they have lifted the Champions League trophy.
🥅⚽ #RMCity
🏹 #UCL pic.twitter.com/1dWPxbnPoo— Real Madrid C.F. 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (@realmadriden) May 7, 2023
Five UCL Wins in Last Six for Real
While the challenge is a massive one for Madrid, they come into this with an excellent recent UCL record behind them, winning their last five games in this competition while keeping clean sheets in three. In addition to that fine defensive form, they have scored in each of their last 16 European games.
The only obvious downside for Ancelotti is that he will be without Brazilian defender Eder Militao, who is suspended after picking up his second yellow card of their UCL campaign in the second-leg tie against Chelsea.
Record-Breaking Cityzens?
For City, this has all the makings of a historic, record-breaking campaign. They currently lead the Premier League by a point and with a game-in-hand over Arsenal and, in addition to this UCL semi with Real Madrid, have an upcoming FA Cup semifinal against Manchester United. The treble is very much on given the brilliant form that Pep Guardiola’s team is in.
At the weekend, City dominated against relegation-threatened Leeds United but a missed penalty from İlkay Gündoğan – who had scored both goals to give them a 2-0 lead – made for a nervous ending after the visitors pulled a goal back late on. But, like all great sides, they found a way to get the job done.
Back to it 💪 pic.twitter.com/YSJ0IFGuIc
— Manchester City (@ManCity) May 4, 2023
Fifteen Wins in Last Sixteen for City
So brilliant has the Cityzens’ recent form been, they have failed to win only one of their last 16 games in all competitions; that one being a well-deserved away draw with Bayern Munich in their UCL quarterfinal second leg. Guardiola will, however, want to avoid a personal record of seven exits in the Champions League semifinals.
One of those came last season in a repeat of this tie when City won 4-3 at the Etihad before going on to lose 3-1 after extra time in the Santiago Bernabeu. Real went on to beat Liverpool 1-0 in the final.
Real Madrid vs Man City Team Lineups and Injuries
Real Madrid Projected Lineup: Courtois, Carvajal, Rudiger, Alaba, Camavinga, Valverde, Kroos, Modric, Rodrygo, Benzema, Vinicius.
Injuries & absences: Mendy, Militao.
Man City Projected Lineup: Ederson, Walker, Dias, Akanji, Stones, Rodri, Silva, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Grealish, Haaland.
Injuries & absences: Ake, Palmer.
Real Madrid vs Man City Head-to-Head Stats
| 8-1-1 | UCL Record | 6-4-0 |
| 25 / 8 | Goals For / Against | 26 / 4 |
| 90.4 | Passing accuracy (%) | 90.3 |
| 55.1 | Possession (%) | 60.0 |
| 168 / 70 | Goal attempts / On Target | 167 / 71 |
| WWLWLW | Form Guide (all comps) | DWWWWW |
Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction
City’s current form is such that it takes something special to beat them or even draw with them. With Erling Haaland looking unstoppable in leading the City line, they are full of goals and so, for me, the best Real Madrid can hope for is a draw and to still be in the tie as they head to the Etihad.
Real Madrid vs Man City Picks: The draw (+265) / Under 2.5 goals (+115)
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Once just a sports fanatic, fan-turned-writer Gary Gowers has been featured on European television and radio networks to discuss several professional football clubs. His work can be found in an assortment of publications like The Metro, MyFootballWriter.com, and BBC Radio Norfolk.
